LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Ohio, Nevada, Georgia, Massachusetts Poll Updates – Ukraine Options – Tuesday Trivia

Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, May 3, 2022

Same as a week ago

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (WaPo/ABC, Emerson, Reuters) to 43% (Rasmussen, Economist). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (down 2 from a week ago), putting him at 10 points net negative. 

  • The new Washington Post/ABC poll finds that 42% of U.S. adults approve of Biden’s handling of the situation involving Russia and Ukraine, while 47% disapprove.
  • It also finds that 38% of U.S. adults approve of Biden’s handling of the economy, while 57% disapprove.

SENATE: 2022 
Among voters statewide

Trafalgar (R) / Emerson = Average
J.D. Vance: 26%/26% = 26
Josh Mandel: 21%/24% = 22.5
Matt Dolan: 22%/21% = 21.5
Mike Gibbons: 13%/17% = 15
Jane Timken: 6%/8% = 7
Others: 4%/5% = 4.5

RON’S COMMENT: Both polls have Trump-endorsed Vance, author of Hillbilly Elegy, leading the primary, although they show a fairly tight three-way fight…This will be an early test of Trump’s endorsement influence…. The Emerson poll report says that “Mandel leads among rural voters with a 30% plurality, whereas Vance holds a plurality among urban (25%) and suburban (26%) voters.” Primary is today…. The seat is now held by Sen. Rob Portman (R), who is retiring.

Adam Laxalt: 50%
Sam Brown: 26%
Others: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: This Trafalgar (R) poll shows Laxalt, a former state AG and 2018 nominee for governor, leading the GOP primary by a wide margin. A WPA (R) poll, taken about the same time, has Laxalt leading 57-20. Primary is June 14. The winner takes on Democratic incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto.

Among voters statewide

Gov. Charlie Baker (I): 37%
Maura Healey (D): 28%
Geoff Diehl (R): 17%
RON’S COMMENT: Popular two-term Gov. Baker, a Republican in this heavily Democratic state, announced a while back that he will not seek re-election this year. However, this poll threw him into the mix as an independent and finds him leading Democrat Healy, the state AG, and pro-Trump Republican Diehl…. Baker has never supported Trump and is a moderate. 

  • In a two-way match without Baker, Democrat Healy leads Republican Diehl by a wide 54-27 margin.

Trafalgar (R) / Emerson = Average
Gov. Mike DeWine: 47%/49% = 48
Jim Renacci: 27%/35% = 31
Joe Blystone: 19%/14% = 16.5
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent DeWine, a moderate who has steered clear of Trump, holds a lead over former U.S. Rep. Renacci, who has angled for Trump’s endorsement but did not receive it, and businessman Blystone…. On the other side: Democrats John Cranley and Nan Whaley—former mayors and allies—are battling in what has been a fairly close contest for their party’s nomination…. Primary is today.
Insider Advantage (R) / SurveyUSA
Gov. Brian Kemp: 54%/56% = 55
David Perdue: 38%/31% = 34.5
Others: 5%/5% = 5
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Kemp holds a clear advantage over Perdue, who has Trump’s support. The last five polls put Kemp above 50%…. Says pollster Matt Towery: “Trump’s favorable rating among respondents was close to eighty percent. So far, his popularity has not been enough to push Kemp into a runoff.” Primary is May 24…. The winner will face Democrat Stacey Abrams in November…. Also: 

  • Secretary of State race: In the SurveyUSA poll, incumbent Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) leads his main primary challenger Jody Hice, 31-20. Two others get a total of 9%, with 40% undecided. 

Joe Lombardo: 26%
Dean Heller: 18%
Joey Gilbert: 18%
John Lee: 13%
Others: 19%
RON’S COMMENT: The winner takes on Democratic incumbent Gov. Steve Sisolak, who may be vulnerable. Primary is June 14.

Among U.S. adults nationwide

Do you think the U.S. is doing___to support Ukraine in its war with Russia?

  • U.S. is doing too much: 14%
  • U.S. is doing too little: 37%
  • U.S. is doing about right: 36%

RON’S COMMENT: 47% of Republicans, 29% of Democrats and 36% say the U.S. is doing too little…. This poll, however, also finds that Americans favor the U.S. providing more military support to Ukraine by a 55-35 margin. Interestingly, 56% of Republicans, 63% of Democrats and 53% of independents favor more military support. 


Which Ohio born President’s picture is on the $500 bill?

(See answer below)

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NEVADA: Tragalgar Group (R), April 25-28
OHIO: Emerson, April 28–29, 2022; Trafalgar (R), April 29-May 1
MASSACHUSETTS: Globe/Suffolk, April 24-28
GEORGIA: SurveyUSA, April 22-27; Insider Advantage (R), April 28-May 1

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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