Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, May 3, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Same as a week ago
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (WaPo/ABC, Emerson, Reuters) to 43% (Rasmussen, Economist). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (down 2 from a week ago), putting him at 10 points net negative.
- The new Washington Post/ABC poll finds that 42% of U.S. adults approve of Biden’s handling of the situation involving Russia and Ukraine, while 47% disapprove.
- It also finds that 38% of U.S. adults approve of Biden’s handling of the economy, while 57% disapprove.
SENATE: 2022
Among voters statewide
OHIO
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Trafalgar (R) / Emerson = Average
J.D. Vance: 26%/26% = 26
Josh Mandel: 21%/24% = 22.5
Matt Dolan: 22%/21% = 21.5
Mike Gibbons: 13%/17% = 15
Jane Timken: 6%/8% = 7
Others: 4%/5% = 4.5
RON’S COMMENT: Both polls have Trump-endorsed Vance, author of Hillbilly Elegy, leading the primary, although they show a fairly tight three-way fight…. This will be an early test of Trump’s endorsement influence…. The Emerson poll report says that “Mandel leads among rural voters with a 30% plurality, whereas Vance holds a plurality among urban (25%) and suburban (26%) voters.” Primary is today…. The seat is now held by Sen. Rob Portman (R), who is retiring.
NEVADA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Adam Laxalt: 50%
Sam Brown: 26%
Others: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: This Trafalgar (R) poll shows Laxalt, a former state AG and 2018 nominee for governor, leading the GOP primary by a wide margin. A WPA (R) poll, taken about the same time, has Laxalt leading 57-20. Primary is June 14. The winner takes on Democratic incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto.
GOVERNOR: 2022
Among voters statewide
MASSACHUSETTS
GENERAL ELECTION
Gov. Charlie Baker (I): 37%
Maura Healey (D): 28%
Geoff Diehl (R): 17%
RON’S COMMENT: Popular two-term Gov. Baker, a Republican in this heavily Democratic state, announced a while back that he will not seek re-election this year. However, this poll threw him into the mix as an independent and finds him leading Democrat Healy, the state AG, and pro-Trump Republican Diehl…. Baker has never supported Trump and is a moderate.
- In a two-way match without Baker, Democrat Healy leads Republican Diehl by a wide 54-27 margin.
OHIO
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Trafalgar (R) / Emerson = Average
Gov. Mike DeWine: 47%/49% = 48
Jim Renacci: 27%/35% = 31
Joe Blystone: 19%/14% = 16.5
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent DeWine, a moderate who has steered clear of Trump, holds a lead over former U.S. Rep. Renacci, who has angled for Trump’s endorsement but did not receive it, and businessman Blystone…. On the other side: Democrats John Cranley and Nan Whaley—former mayors and allies—are battling in what has been a fairly close contest for their party’s nomination…. Primary is today.
GEORGIA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Insider Advantage (R) / SurveyUSA
Gov. Brian Kemp: 54%/56% = 55
David Perdue: 38%/31% = 34.5
Others: 5%/5% = 5
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Kemp holds a clear advantage over Perdue, who has Trump’s support. The last five polls put Kemp above 50%…. Says pollster Matt Towery: “Trump’s favorable rating among respondents was close to eighty percent. So far, his popularity has not been enough to push Kemp into a runoff.” Primary is May 24…. The winner will face Democrat Stacey Abrams in November…. Also:
- Secretary of State race: In the SurveyUSA poll, incumbent Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) leads his main primary challenger Jody Hice, 31-20. Two others get a total of 9%, with 40% undecided.
NEVADA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Joe Lombardo: 26%
Dean Heller: 18%
Joey Gilbert: 18%
John Lee: 13%
Others: 19%
RON’S COMMENT: The winner takes on Democratic incumbent Gov. Steve Sisolak, who may be vulnerable. Primary is June 14.
UKRAINE OPTIONS
Among U.S. adults nationwide
Do you think the U.S. is doing___to support Ukraine in its war with Russia?
- U.S. is doing too much: 14%
- U.S. is doing too little: 37%
- U.S. is doing about right: 36%
RON’S COMMENT: 47% of Republicans, 29% of Democrats and 36% say the U.S. is doing too little…. This poll, however, also finds that Americans favor the U.S. providing more military support to Ukraine by a 55-35 margin. Interestingly, 56% of Republicans, 63% of Democrats and 53% of independents favor more military support.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Which Ohio born President’s picture is on the $500 bill?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NEVADA: Tragalgar Group (R), April 25-28
OHIO: Emerson, April 28–29, 2022; Trafalgar (R), April 29-May 1
MASSACHUSETTS: Globe/Suffolk, April 24-28
GEORGIA: SurveyUSA, April 22-27; Insider Advantage (R), April 28-May 1
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
Follow here to get the latest updates on the Lunchtime Politics.
Be the first to comment