LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Voters Would Consider Independent – Young Voters – Trump vs. Biden – Favorability Ratings – Vermont – Tuesday Trivia

Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, April 26, 2022

BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Same as Saturday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 40% (Trafalgar-R) to 43% (Reuters, Economist). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Saturday), putting him at 12 points net negative….. The latest Harvard/Harris national poll shows that:  

• 53% of voters say they have doubts that Biden is mentally fit to serve as President. 
• 62% of voters believe Biden is too old to be President.

PRESIDENT: 2024
Among voters nationwide

GENERAL ELECTION

• Donald Trump (R) over Joe Biden (D): +2 (45-43)
• Donald Trump (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +6 (47-41)
• Ron DeSantis (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +4 (42-38)

RON’S COMMENT: Trump leads Biden in a close race and beats Harris by a wider margin. DeSantis also beats Harris…. Note that both Trump and Biden are polling below their 2020 popular vote performance, but much more so for Biden: Biden polls 8.3 points below his 51.3% vote and Trump polls 1.9 points below his 46.9% vote.
 
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION (WITHOUT BIDEN)

ASKED OF DEMOCRATIC VOTERS: If President Biden does not run again in 2024, who would you prefer to be the 2024 Democratic nominee?

• Kamala Harris: 31%
• Hillary Clinton: 14%
• Bernie Sanders: 10%
• Pete Buttigieg: 8%
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 6%
• Stacey Abrams: 5%
• Elizabeth Warren: 5%
• Joe Manchin: 4%
• Amy Klobuchar: 3%
• Someone else: 4%
• Don’t know: 10%

RON’S COMMENT: Harris runs first, but nearly seven out of ten Democrats do not see her as their party’s heir apparent should Biden not run. Clinton places second, but given her national recognition the percentage of Democrats who support her is not particularly impressive. The other 2020 also-rans (Sanders, Buttigieg, Warren and Klobuchar) each has a pocket of support, but none is setting the Democratic world on fire.
 
REPUBLICAN NOMINATION (WITHOUT TRUMP)

ASKED OF REPUBLICAN VOTERS: If former President Donald Trump does not run for president in 2024, who would you vote for in the GOP primary?

• Ron DeSantis: 35%
• Mike Pence: 20%
• Ted Cruz: 8%
• Nikki Haley: 7%
• Marco Rubio: 3%
• Mike Pompeo: 1%
• Tim Scott: 1%
• Someone else: 6%
• Unsure: 18%

RON’S COMMENT: By any standard, DeSantis’ showing is impressive. Keep in mind that, unlike Pence, Cruz, Haley, Rubio and Pompeo, the Florida governor has never run for or held a national elected or appointed office…. One of the most intriguing questions for 2024: Would both DeSantis and Trump would run for the GOP nomination? Timing is everything in presidential politics. Both Obama and JFK proved that you should run when your’e “hot,” even if you’re young and have to oppose more seasoned rivals. Chris Christie passed on a race in 2012 when he was “hot” and ran in 2016 when he was “not.”
 
MODERATE INDEPENDENT ALTERNATIVE

Do you think that you would consider a moderate independent candidate for president if the 2024 match was between Donald Trump and Joe Biden or would you not consider a moderate independent? 

Yes, would consider a moderate independent: 58%
No, would not consider: 42%
 
RON’S COMMENT: A solid majority of voters would consider a moderate independent candidate for president if the 2024 match was between Trump and Biden. Breakdown: 47% of Republicans, 60% of Democrats, 71% of independents and nearly two-thirds of voters 18-49-years-old would consider voting for a moderate independent. 

GOVERNOR: 2022 
Among voters statewide

GEORGIA
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Gov. Brian Kemp: 53% 
David Perdue: 27%
Others: 5%
 
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Kemp continues to post a wide lead over Perdue, who has Trump’s support. The winner will face Democrat Stacey Abrams in November…. The primary is May 24.

NEW YORK STATE

• Gov. Kathy Hochul (D): When asked whether voters want to “elect Hochul” or would “prefer somebody else” in November’s election, the “somebody else” option beats incumbent Hochul 45-40. Hochul wins 62% of Democrats, 8% of Republicans and 30% of independents. She does better among men than women (45% vs. 37%). She polls 38% of Whites, 46% of Blacks and 41% of Latinos…. Keep in mind that when voters say they want “someone else,” that could be a Democrat, Republican or a third-party alternative.
• Hochul’s statewide rating is a net-positive, but lackluster, 44% favorable/34% unfavorable. 
• Hochul’s positive rating on “addressing economic issues” is a weak 30%. She’s even weaker on “fighting crime” at 24%.
• Crime is the top issue in the state (24%), with taxes/fiscal responsibility a distant second (9%).
• Biden’s statewide rating in New York state is 51% favorable/45% unfavorable.

VERMONT

• Gov. Phil Scott (R): Incumbent Scott has yet to announce whether he will seek re-election. This poll shows that 50% of voters think he deserves re-election, while 25% say he doesn’t, with 24% undecided. Scott does best among independents (76%). He does better among Democrats (49%) than he does among his fellow Republicans (46%).
• Scott’s statewide rating: 57% favorable/21% neutral and 20% unfavorable.

FAVORABILITY RATINGS 
Among voters nationwide

% = Favorable / Unfavorable

• Donald Trump: 44%/49%
• Mike Pence: 41%/42%
• Joe Biden: 42%/52%
• Bernie Sanders: 41%/43%
• Kamala Harris: 40%/50%
• Hillary Clinton: 38%/51%
• Ron DeSantis: 35%/31%
• Nancy Pelosi: 34%/55%
• Chuck Schumer: 30%/40%
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 30%/41%
• Mike Pompeo: 28%/33%
• Mitch McConnell: 28%/48%
• Joe Manchin: 27%/33%
• Anthony Blinken: 19%/28%

RON’S COMMENT: A few things to note about the ratings from this Harvard/Harris poll–– 

• Trump polls better than Biden and Harris. 
• Pence has a lower negative than Trump and Biden.
• Hillary Clinton is weaker on favorability than Biden, Harris, Trump and Pence. 
• DeSantis is the only politician on this list who has a net-positive national rating.
• Sec. of State Blinken has a negative rating (28%) much higher than his positive rating (19%); his predecessor, Pompeo, has a higher favorable rating (28% vs. 19%).

YOUNG AMERICANS  
Among U.S. voters 18-29-years-old

Findings of national poll of 18-to-29-year-olds by the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School: 

• More than six months out, youth turnout in 2022 midterm elections is on track to match 2018 turnout, with 36% of young Americans reporting that they will “definitely” be voting compared to 37% at this stage in 2018.
• Compared with the Spring 2018 poll: Young Democrats (38% of 18–29-year-olds) are less likely (-5 points) and young Republicans (25% of 18-29-year-olds) are more likely (+7) to vote at this stage. While interest among white and Hispanic voters did not change significantly, young Asian American and Pacific Islander voters show increasedinterest (+13), while young Black Americans show significantly less interest in voting (-13) than they did at this point in the 2018 midterm election cycle.   
• Overall, 40% of Americans under 30 prefer Democrats to maintain control of Congress, while 28% prefer Republicans; 32% are unsure. This +12-point margin for Democrats widens to +21 when the lens is narrowed to likely voters. 
• There is a sharp decrease in attitudes related to the efficacy of voting and political engagement. For example: (a) The percentage of youth agreeing that “political involvement rarely has any tangible results” has risen from 22% in 2018 to 36% in 2022. (b) Agreement with the statement “I don’t believe my vote will make a real difference,” increased from 31% in 2018 to 42% in 2022. (c) Agreement that “politics today are no longer able to meet the challenges our country is facing,” increased from 45% in 2018 to 56% in 2022.
• At 41%, President Biden’s job approval among young Americans is down 18 percentage points since the Spring 2021 poll (59%). Seventy percent (70%) of young Democrats now approve of President Biden’s job performance (-5 since Fall 2021), as compared to 33% of independents (-6) and 11% of Republicans (+2). The leading reason cited for disapproval of Biden is “ineffectiveness” (36%), followed by “not following through on campaign promises” (14%) and “not sharing my values” (10%). 
• 59% of young Black Americans believe people of their racial background are under “a lot” of attack in America, 43% of AAPI youth, 37% of Hispanics, and 19% of whites feel the same. Compared to Spring 2017, the percent of young Blacks who feel under “a lot” of attack for their race has stayed relatively constant (2017: 62%). But, for young Hispanics, the proportion who felt under “a lot” of attack for their race decreased from 46% to 37%. 
• While only 34% of 18-to-29-year-olds express satisfaction with the public education system, 57% were satisfied with the quality of their own K-12 education. Satisfaction tracked closely with higher educational attainment, with 67% of college graduates reporting satisfaction versus 51% of those with high school degrees only.
• 46% of young Americans agree with the statement that “parents should have more control over their children’s education than they do now,” while 23% disagreed. While 35% of Democrats agree, support for greater parental involvement is much higher for Republicans (64% agree) and somewhat higher for independent/unaffiliated young voters (44% agree).
• Young whites supported teaching K-12 students about the history of race in America. The divides among parties were prominent: 70% of Democrats under 30 were supportive of candidates who support teaching that racism is a fixture of American laws and institutions, compared to 23% of Republicans and 37% of independents.

• 85% agree that some type of government action on student loan debt is needed, young Americans had no clear consensus on a path forward. 38% favors full debt cancellation, while 27% favor government assisting with repayment options without any debt cancellation, and 21% favor debt cancellation for those with the most need.  
• 21% of 18-to-29-year-olds identify as LGBTQ. Also: 72% of young Americans are either “very” or “somewhat” comfortable with a close friend coming out as LGBTQ. The poll finds that 84% of Democrats, 53% of Republicans and 74% of independents are comfortable, as are 68% of males, 76% of females, 72% of young Catholics, and 61% of young Evangelical or Fundamentalist Christians.
• 61% of 18-to-29-year-olds are comfortable with a close friend transitioning from one gender to another (77% Democrat, 33% Republican, 64% independent); 56% of young Americans are comfortable with using they/them pronouns (73% Democrat, 32% Republican, 54% independent); and 46% are comfortable with transgender athletes participating in sports (65% Democrat, 20% Republican, 44% independent).

• 52% of Americans under 30 years old report feeling “down, depressed, or hopeless” for several days or more in the past two weeks. Young women (59%) were more likely than men (44%) to report these symptoms, as were Democrats (56%) over Republicans (41%).
• 45% of 18-to-29-year-olds report that politics has had a negative impact on their mental health and only 13% report a positive impact. 

TUESDAY TRIVIA

When was the last time a Republican presidential nominee carried Vermont?
 
(See answer below)

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENT 2024, FAVORABILITY RATINGS: Harvard CAPS/Harris, April 20-21
GEORGIA: Atlanta Journal-Constitution/Univ. of Georgia, April 10-22
NEW YORK: Siena College, April 18-21
VERMONT: Green Mountain State Poll/UNH, April 14-18
YOUNG VOTERS: Harvard IOP, Public Opinion Project (HPOP)/Ipsos, March 15-30

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

TRIVIA ANSWER
1988––when George H.W. Bush beat Mike Dukakis in Vermont. 
Between 1856 and 1988, Vermont voted Republican in every presidential election except in 1964. Since 1992, the state has voted Democratic in every presidential election.

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