LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Latest Numbers from France – Rating Multi-Billionaires, DeSantis – Pennsylvania, Missouri Primaries

Your Daily Polling Update for Saturday, April 23, 2022

Up 1 from Thursday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 40% (Trafalgar-R) to 43% (Reuters, Economist). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (up 1 from Thursday), putting him at 12 points net negative.

Among voters in France

Based on the average of the latest eight polls
Pres. Emmanuel Macron: 55.5%
Marine LePen: 44.5%
RON’S COMMENT: The average of the latest polls shows President Macron maintaining an 11-point lead over LePen in the runoff to be held tomorrow (Sunday). The tightest poll has Macron ahead by 6 and the one with the biggest margin has him ahead by 14.

SENATE 2022 
Among voters statewide

John Fetterman: 41%
Conor Lamb: 17%
Malcom Kenyatta: 4%
Others: 9%
RON’S COMMENT: This is for the seat of retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R)…. While Fetterman, the state’s nonconformist lieutenant governor, maintains a wide lead in the Democratic primary over U.S. Rep. Lamb, many party operatives believe Lamb would be the stronger general election candidate. 

  • Among Democratic voters: Fetterman is 56% favorable/11% unfavorable, Lamb is 39% favorable/12% unfavorable and Biden is 74% favorable/23% unfavorable. 
  • The primary is May 17. 

Mehmet Oz: 16%
David McCormick: 15%
Kathy Barnette: 7%
Jeff Bartos: 6%
Carla Sands: 5%
Others: 8%
RON’S COMMENT: The Pennsylvania Senate primaries are attracting plenty of attention, especially on the GOP side. This poll, as have others, shows a tight race between Oz and McCormick. The high undecided vote (43%) in this survey may be because most of the interviews were conducted in late March and early April, before Trump’s endorsement and the most recent TV buys. The Trafalgar (R) poll we reported this week was taken after Trump’s endorsement and had Oz ahead by 3. 

  • Oz has been endorsed by Trump, although quite a few former Trump advisers and operatives are working for the well-funded McCormick. Could McCormick’s campaign turn out to be the winning formula for Republicans running against a Trump-endorsed opponent? The primary results will provide important insights.
  • Among Republican voters: Oz is 27% favorable/39% unfavorable (which may indicate limited growth potential), McCormick is 29% favorable/15% unfavorable and Trump is 78% favorable/18% unfavorable. The primary is May 17.

NMB poll / OnMessage poll = Average
Eric Greitens: 23%/22% = 22.5
Vicky Hartzler: 20%/23% = 21.5
Eric Schmitt: 25%/16% = 20.5
Others: 11%/18% = 14.5
RON’S COMMENT: Still a tight three-way GOP primary race for the seat of retiring Sen. Roy Blunt (R). It’s believed by pundits and party operatives that either Schmitt or Hartzler would be a stronger general election candidate than Greitens, who was forced to resign the governorship in 2018 over sexual misconduct and campaign finance allegations…. Even though these two polls show Greitens running second, when you average the two, he’s slightly running first…. Campaign polls: The NMB poll, which has Schmitt ahead, was taken for a pro-Schmitt PAC, and the OnMessage poll, which has Hartzler ahead, was taken for Hartzler’s campaign…. We report, you decide…. The primary is Aug. 2.

Among voters nationwide

% = Favorable / Unfavorable

  • Elon Musk: 51%/37%
  • Jeff Bezos: 29%/55%
  • Mark Zuckerberg: 23%/66%
  • Ron DeSantis: 42%/36%
  • Eric Adams: 21%/28%

RON’S COMMENT: Of the multi-billionaires polled, you can see that Musk does best and Zuckerberg does worst….  

  • Musk’s favorable rating is much higher with Republicans (73%) than Democrats (37%). Also: 45% of voters approve of Musk’s attempt to buy Twitter, while 32% disapprove of it; 70% of Republicans approve and only 28% of Democrats do.
  • Bezos’ favorable rating is higher with Democrats (41%) than Republicans (27%).
  • Zuckerberg’s favorable rating is higher with Democrats (35%) than Republicans (19%).
  • Adams, the new Mayor of New York, has a net negative rating nationally. Among Democrats, he’s 29%/23% and among Republicans he’s 15%/31%.
  • DeSantis’ rating is 72%/9% among Republicans, 18%/56% among Democrats and 42%/34% among independents. These are good numbers for a potential GOP presidential contender…. Points out a CNN report: Over the past six months, DeSantis’ name has been mentioned on Fox News more than 700 times. That compares to former Vice President Mike Pence with a little more than 200 mentions and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley with a little more than 100 mentions.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PENNSYLVANIA: Franklin & Marshall, March 30-April 10
MISSOURI: NMB Research (R), April 6-7; OnMessage (R), April 4-6
FAVORABLE RATINGS: The Economist/YouGov, April 16-19

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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