LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Macron Widens Lead – Ukraine Options – Presidential Debates – Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, New Hampshire Polls

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, April 21, 2022

Up 1 from a week ago

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 35% (Quinnipiac) to 45% (Politico/Morning Consult). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (down 1 from a week ago), putting him at 12 points net negative.

Among voters in France

Based on average of latest four polls
Pres. Emmanuel Macron: 55.6%
Marine LePen: 44.4%
RON’S COMMENT: The average of the latest polls shows President Macron leading challenger LePen by 11 points in the runoff to be held this Sunday…. It should be noted that this polling average is based on surveys that were largely completed before yesterday’s debate…. Debate: A snap poll conducted by Elabe, taken right after the debate, found that 59% of voters surveyed thought Macron was most convincing and 39% said LePen was most convincing.

SENATE 2022 
Among voters statewide

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) over Adam Laxalt (R): +8 (43-35)
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) over Sam Brown (R): +8 (42-34)
RON’S COMMENT: Polls have been bouncing around in this race. Results of this OH Predictive poll are much better for Democratic incumbent Masto than the last poll we reported by Suffolk Univ. which showed her trailing both Republicans. The OH Predictive poll is based on an online opt-in sample of registered voters and the Suffolk poll was based on likely voters….. From today’s poll report: 

  • Issues: “The economy was the most important issue for voters surveyed, with 36 percent listing it as their top area of concern, followed by education with 21 percent and health care with 12 percent. When asked how Biden has done on the economy, 57 percent said they disapproved of Biden’s handling of the economy, while 36 percent said they approved.” 
  • Blame: “When asked who or what was primarily responsible for higher gas prices, 41 percent of voters blamed Biden, while 33 percent blamed the war in Ukraine.” 


Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) over Donald Bolduc (R): +1 (47-46)
Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) over Kevin Smith (R): +1 (45-44)
Chuck Morse (R) over Sen. Maggie Hassan (D): +2 (46-44)
RON’S COMMENT: Previous polling had been showing Democrat Hassan leading these possible Republican challengers by wider margins. But this poll has the trial heats very tight with Hassan losing one and barely leading two of them…. In the Republican primary poll, Bolduc leads by a wide margin, although the undecided vote is still very high. Most of the GOP candidates have low statewide name ID….Bolduc is a former Army Special Forces general and a 2020 candidate for the Senate…. Hassan’s rating is 35% favorable, 51% unfavorable and 12% neutral.

Josh Mandel: 28%
J.D. Vance: 23%
Mike Gibbons: 14%
Jane Timken: 8%
Matt Dolan: 12%
Others: 3%
RON’S COMMENT: This Trafalgar (R) poll shows Mandel in the lead with Vance, who now has Trump’s endorsement, running second. This race is seen as an important test of Trump’s strength among Republican voters in a state he carried twice by healthy margins. The race is for the seat Sen. Rob Portman (R) is vacating…. The primary is May 3…. The Democratic primary frontrunner is U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan.
Mehmet Oz: 23%
David McCormick: 20%
Kathy Barnette: 18%
Carla Sands: 11%
Jeff Bartos: 8%
RON’S COMMENT: This hotly contested primary race is for the seat of retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R)…. Celebrity doctor Oz was endorsed by Trump on April 10. The poll was taken April 11-13.
Mark Brnovich: 21%
Jim Lamon: 16%
Blake Masters: 9%
Michael McGuire: 6% 
Justin Olson: 3%
Unsure: 44%
RON’S COMMENT: Brnovich, the state’s AG, has a modest lead over Lamon, a solar power executive, in a primary that’s still wide open with 44% undecided. Masters works for billionaire Peter Thiel, a Trump ally…. The primary is Aug. 2…. The Republican Senate nominee will face Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly.

Among voters statewide


Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) over Joe Lombardo (R): +9 (44-35)
Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) over Dean Heller (R): +13 (46-33)

RON’S COMMENT: This poll is much better for Democratic Gov. Sisolak than the previous Suffolk poll we reported. In this OH Predictive poll, Sisolak beats both Republicans by clear margins. Recent polling puts Lombardo ahead in the GOP primary.


Gov. Chris Sununu (R) over Tom Sherman (D): +26 (55-29-1)

RON’S COMMENT: Seeking his fourth term as governor, Republican Gov. Sununu starts off with a strong lead. Democrat Sherman has low name ID.

Gov. Brian Kemp: 52% 
David Perdue: 28%
Others: 11%
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Gov. Kemp widens his lead and breaks 50% against Perdue, who has Trump’s support. A Kemp win would be a major defeat for the former president…. Kemp’s job rating among Republican primary voters is 56% approve/25% disapprove…. Trump’s rating among Georgia Republicans is 69% favorable/22% unfavorable…. The primary is May 24…. The winner will face Democrat Stacey Abrams in November.
Gov. Mike DeWine: 40% 
Jim Renacci: 26%
Joe Blystone: 24%
Ron Hood: 2%
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Gov. DeWine posts a wide lead in the GOP primary over former U.S. Rep. Renacci and businessman Blystone, although when the opposition field is combined it’s beating DeWine 52-40. The primary is May 3.
Kari Lake: 29%
Karrin Taylor Robson: 22%
Matt Salmon: 11%
Steve Gaynor: 3%
RON’S COMMENT: Lake, a TV news anchor who has Trump’s support, and Robson, a higher education regent, are battling for first place with Lake now ahead. Salmon is a former congressman and the 2002 GOP gubernatorial nominee. Gaynor is a businessman…. The winner will likely face current Democratic primary frontrunner, Arizona Sec. of State Katie Hobbs.

Among voters nationwide

Do you think each of the following courses of action is a good idea or a bad idea for the U.S. to engage in? 
% = Good idea / Bad idea

  • Sending U.S. weapons to Ukraine: 66%/18%
  • Banning Russian imports: 66%/16%
  • Supporting allowing Sweden and Finland to join NATO: 63%/12% 
  • Conducting cyberattacks on Russia: 43%/31% 
  • Enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine: 40%/31% 
  • Sending U.S. soldiers to Ukraine to provide help, but not to fight Russian soldiers: 35%/40%
  • U.S. military shoot down Russian military planes flying over Ukraine: 22%/53% 
  • Sending U.S. soldiers to Ukraine to fight Russian soldiers: 18%/59%

RON’S COMMENT: Biden voters, more so than Trump voters, favor the U.S. sending weapons to Ukraine (76% vs. 66%). Same is true on banning Russian imports (78% vs. 65%).

Among voters nationwide

As you may know, the Republican National Committee (RNC) voted to ban Republican presidential candidates from participating in debates sanctioned by the Commission on Presidential Debates, the bipartisan organization that governs general election presidential debates. Do you support or oppose the RNC’s decision? 
Support RNC action on debates: 22%
Oppose RNC action on debates: 49%
Don’t know: 29%
RON’S COMMENT: 37% of Republicans, 13% of Democrats and 17% of independents support the RNC’s pullout from debates sponsored by the Commission on Presidential Debates…. 34% of Republicans, 63% of Democrats and 47% of independents oppose the RNC’s pullout from debates…. Note that Republicans are fairly closely split on the issue.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
U.S. OPTIONS IN UKRAINE: The Economist/YouGov, April 16-19
PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES: Politico/Morning Consult, April 15-17
ARIZONA: OH Predictive, April 4-5
OHIO: Trafalgar (R), April 13-14
NEVADA: Nevada Independent, April 1-9
PENNSYLVANIA: Trafalgar (R), April 11-13
GEORGIA: WGCL/Landmark, April 14
NEW HAMPSHIRE: University of New Hampshire, April 14-18

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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