LUNCHTIME POLITICS: L.A. Mayor’s Race – French Election – Palin – Ukraine – Nevada, North Carolina

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, April 14, 2022

Down 2 points from Sunday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 35% (Quinnipiac) to 46% (Economist). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (up 1 from Sunday), putting him at 14 points net negative. 

  • Biden and Ukraine: Both the CNBC and Quinnipiac polls find that 40% of voters approve of Biden’s handling of the Ukraine situation and 49% disapprove. 
  • How far should U.S. go: The Quinnipiac poll shows that 52% of voters believe “the United States should do more to support Ukraine, but not if it means increasing the risk of the United States getting into a war with Russia.” 23% say the U.S. is doing enough and 18% say “the United States should do more to support Ukraine, even if it means increasing the risk of the United States getting into a war with Russia.” 

Among voters citywide

Rick Caruso: 24%
Karen Bass: 23%
Kevin de Leon: 6%
RON’S COMMENT: Caruso, a former Republican who recently became a Democrat, is riding the crime issue into serious contention for mayor of this heavily Democratic city. The poll shows Caruso beats Bass 4-to-1 on the issue…. Caruso, a wealthy real estate developer and active civic leader, is running as the change candidate. Bass, a member of Congress, was one of the finalists to be Joe Biden’s running mate in 2020…. Bass has tons of Democratic politicians supporting her candidacy, including Nancy Pelosi, as well as EMILY’s List and Stonewall Democrats…. Since the February poll, Bass has fallen 9 points, Caruso has gained 16 points and de Leon has slipped 2 points…. The top-two primary is June 7.

Among voters in France

Based on average of last three polls
Pres. Emmanuel Macron: 53.8%
Marine LePen: 46.2%
RON’S COMMENT: This average of three new polls conducted since the first round of voting shows President Macron leading LePen in the runoff race to be held April 24. 

  • Note about the first round of voting: While polls were generally accurate in the first round of voting in France, the media missed what was happening at the very end of the presidential election. It was not LePen who had the final momentum, her vote actually slipped slightly from 24% in the final polls to 23% on Election Day. Left-wing candidate Mélenchon had the final momentum, he moved up from 18% to 22%. President Macron also moved up slightly at the end, going from 27% to 28%.

Among voters statewide

Sarah Palin (R): 31%
Al Gross (I): 26%
Nick Begich (D): 21%
Christopher Constant (D): 7% 
Josh Revak (R): 3%
Tara Sweeney (R): 2%
Other: 4% 
Undecided: 6%
RON’S COMMENT: Former governor and VP candidate Palin posts a modest lead in the Alaska House race at this point. However, her statewide rating is a net-negative 37% favorable/51% unfavorable, which indicates that she may not have much room to grow, especially in a runoff…. The top four candidates will advance to a runoff when a ranked-choice voting process will be used…. Gross, a surgeon, is running as an independent. He was a Democratic-endorsed independent candidate for the Senate in 2020…. Begich is the nephew of former Sen. Mark Begich (D). 

SENATE 2022 
Among voters statewide


  • Adam Laxalt (R) over Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D): +3 (43-40)
  • Sam Brown (R) over Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D): +1 (40-39)

RON’S COMMENT: This poll is not good news for Democrats in a state Biden carried. Incumbent Cortez Masto is trailing both Republicans, albeit by small margins…. One of Cortez Masto’s problems: She’s not doing well enough with Hispanics voters…. The top issues in the state are: inflation (25%), jobs/economy (15%), Russia/Ukraine (10%) and climate change (10%)…. Laxalt is the state’s AG and grandson of former Sen. Paul Laxalt (R). Brown is an army veteran…. The following Nevada poll result will also give Democrats heartburn: 

  • Which of the following three statements comes closest to your view: 
    • I want my vote in November to support the direction President Biden is leading the nation: 27%
    • I want my vote in November to change the direction President Biden is leading the nation: 47%
    • My vote this November doesn’t have much to do with President Biden and his policies: 21%

Cheri Beasley: 37%
Others: 15%
Undecided: 43%
RON’S COMMENT: Beasley is chief justice of the state Supreme Court and has a commanding lead for the Democratic Senate nomination. She’s vying for the seat now held by retiring Republican Sen. Richard Burr.
Ted Budd: 33%
Pat McCrory: 23%
Mark Walker: 7%
Others: 4%
RON’S COMMENT: Another poll showing Trump-endorsed Budd leading the primary….Budd wins Republican women 34-17 and Republican men 32-28…. He runs up big margins among voters 65 and older (47-17)…. The three most recent polls give him an average lead of 12 points…. The primary is May 12.

Among voters statewide


  • John Lee (R) over Gov. Steve Sisolak (D): +3 (40-37)
  • Joe Lombardo (R) over Gov. Steve Sisolak (D): +2 (39-37)
  • Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) and Dean Heller (R): even (39-39)

RON’S COMMENT: More lousy poll numbers for Democrats in Nevada. Incumbent Sisolak has a tough fight on his hands to keep his job.

Among voters nationwide

As you know, our federal political system and institutions are determined by the Constitution. Which of these best describes your feelings about how that system is working today? 

  • It needs a complete overhaul/major changes: 47%
  • It needs minor changes: 34%
  • It is working pretty well: 19% 

RON’S COMMENT: Fewer than one-fifth of the electorate says the political system is “working pretty well” and the rest want some level of change. By party: 48% of Democrats and 44% of Republicans say the system needs complete overhaul or major changes…. Also: 

  • Democracy in America: Only 5% of voters say democracy in Americais safe and secure,” while 21% say it’s “somewhat safe and secure,” 42% say it’s “somewhat threatened” and 32% say it’s “very threatened.”
  • Border security: 61% of Democrats and 93% of Republicans say “improving border security and restricting illegal immigration” would strengthen democracy.
  • Jan. 6: 12% of Democrats and 57% of Republicans say Jan. 6 was more “an act of patriotism” than “an insurrection.” However, 88% of Democrats and 43% of Republicans say it was more “an insurrection.”
  • Splitting U.S. into two countries: 16% of Democrats and 19% of Republicans say they’d favor splitting the U.S. into two countries, one mostly blue and one mostly red.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
L.A. MAYOR: UC Berkeley, March 29-April 5
ALASKA: Must Read Alaska/Remington, April 7-9
NEVADA: Suffolk/Reno Gazette-Journal, April 2-6
POLITICAL SYSTEM: The New Republic/Hart Research, March 4-7

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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