LUNCHTIME POLITICS: French Presidential Election – New Hampshire, Alabama, Missouri Senate – Florida, Michigan, Alabama Governor

Your Daily Polling Update for Saturday, April 2, 2022

Down 1 from Thursday

RON’S COMMENT: Looks like Biden’s rating is stuck for now in the low 40s…. Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 38% (Quinnipiac) to 45% (Economist). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Thursday), putting him at 13 points net negative….The Marist poll shows: 

  • 74% of Democrats, 4% of Republicans and 36% of independents approve of Biden’s job performance.
  • 18% of Biden voters in the 2020 election now disapprove of his job performance.

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Acclaimed historian and New York Times bestselling author Craig Shirley delivers a compelling account of 1945, particularly the watershed events in the month of April, that details how America emerged from World War II as a leading superpower.
One of the most consequential months in history, April of 1945 saw: the tragic death of President Roosevelt and the final, vicious demise of Adolf Hitler…. the fall of the Empire of Japan and the rise of atomic weaponry…. the horrific revelations of the Holocaust, an American society reshaped by global war and industrialization, the collapse of Naziism and the disturbing rise of the Soviet Union as a new adversary. 
To purchase, go to April 1945: The Hinge of History

SENATE 2022 
Among voters statewide

General Election
Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) over Donald Bolduc (R): +5 (44-39)
Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) over Chuck Morse (R): +7 (43-36)
Sen. Maggie Hassan (D) over Kevin (R): +10 (44-34)
RON’S COMMENT: Democratic incumbent Hassan maintains a lead, but her advantage over Bolduc, especially, is rather modest in this poll, indicating a competitive race. More signs of potential trouble for Hassan: Her job rating is upside down at 46% approve/49% disapprove. Also, her party’s president is even weaker in the state: Biden is 43% approve/57% disapprove.
Republican Primary
Vicky Hartzler: 25%
Eric Greitens: 24%
Eric Schmitt: 22%
Others: 13%
RON’S COMMENT: This is for the seat of retiring Sen. Roy Blunt (R)…. All three of the top candidates have placed first in recent polls. This one has Hartzler slightly ahead. In any case, it looks like a three-way contest at this point. It’s believed by pundits and party operatives, as polls have shown, that either Schmitt or Hartzler would be a much stronger general election candidate than Greitens, who was forced to resign the governorship in 2018 over sexual misconduct and campaign finance allegations. The primary is Aug. 2. 
Republican Primary
Mike Durant: 33%
Katie Britt: 23%
Mo Brooks: 12%
Others: 6%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll has Durant ahead, with Britt second. Brooks, who was the Trump candidate, recently lost the former president’s endorsement. From the poll report: “A majority (55%) of voters said they prefer a political outsider as Senator, whereas 45% prefer someone with years of political experience.” This is for the seat of retiring Sen. Richard Shelby (R). 

Among voters statewide

General Election
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Charlie Crist (D): +16 (49-33)
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Annette Taddeo (D): +19 (49-30)
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Nikki Fried (D): +24 (51-27)
RON’S COMMENT: Based on this St. Leo Univ. poll, which was conducted over an unusually lengthy period of three weeks, DeSantis posts wide leads in a re-election bid that once appeared to be close…. DeSantis’ job rating in this poll is a solid 59% approve/37% disapprove––way up from 45% approve/49% disapprove in July 2020, based on another poll.
Republican Primary
James Craig: 34%
Perry Johnson: 16%
Garrett Soldano: 15%
Ryan Kelley: 7%
Others: 7%
RON’S COMMENT: Craig is a former police chief of Detroit. He has a solid lead at this point in the GOP primary to take on Democratic incumbent Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
Republican Primary
Gov. Kay Ivey: 48%
Tim James: 11%
Lynda Blanchard: 8%
RON’S COMMENT: GOP Gov. Ivey has a strong lead in the Republican primary. Among all voters, her job rating is 52% approve/33% disapprove.

Among voters in France

Based on average of last four polls
Presidential first round:
Emmanuel Macron: 28%
Marine LePen: 21%
Jean-Luc Antoine Pierre Mélenchon: 15%
Eric Zemmour: 10%
Valerie Pecresse: 9%
Others: 17%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll average shows President Macron continues to lead the first round of voting in the next French presidential election, which will be held April 10…. Mélenchon, Zemmour and Pecresse have each had their moments in the sun, but they’re falling short as the race enters the home stretch…. Polling also shows Macron leading two-way runoff races in the second round of voting on April 24: 

  • Macron over LePen: +8 (54-46)
  • Macron over Mélenchon: +30 (60-30)
  • Macron over Zemmour: +32 (66-34)

Macron is the incumbent; he’s a centrist/liberal and leads the Citizens Together coalition…. LePen leads the National Rally party, formerly the National Front. She supports strict immigration rules and protectionism. This is her third presidential bid…. Mélenchon represents the left-wing La France Insoumise party…. Zemmour is the far-right leader of the new Reconquete Party…. Pecresse is the candidate of The Republicans, a center-right party.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: St. Anselm, March 23-24
FLORIDA: St. Leo Univ., Feb. 18-March 12
MICHIGAN: Trafalgar (R), March 29-31
MISSOURI: Trafalgar (R), March 24-29
ALABAMA: Emerson/The Hill, March 25-27

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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