Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, March 28, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Up 1 from Thursday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 40% (NBC News) to 45% (Economist). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Thursday), putting him 12 points net negative.
- The NBC poll finds that more Americans blame Biden for inflation (38%) than the pandemic (28%), corporate price raising (23%) or Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (6%).
_________________________
THE CORPORATE WARRIOR
By James Farwell
Wondering how Steve Jobs defied market research to run a Super Bowl ad that turned Apple around? Or how Michael Jordan helped Nike use a hero-villain theme in its inspiring ads? Wonder how some college kids used their savings and imagination to grow start-up companies into billion dollar “unicorn” successes? Or the truth behind the EAGLE CLAW failed rescue mission of our hostages in Iran? In THE CORPORATE WARRIOR, author James Farwell interviewed Gen. David Petreaus and Adm. Jim Stavridis and many flag officers, and applies military strategy to the business world. A great read, order on Amazon: https://amzn.to/3rvVRYt
MISSOURI: SENATE 2022
Among Republican primary voters statewide
REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
Eric Schmitt: 24%
Eric Greitens: 21%
Vicky Hartzler: 19%
Others: 17%
RON’S COMMENT: This is for the seat of retiring Sen. Roy Blunt (R).
- Previous polling showed Greitens, a former governor, leading the GOP Senate primary. But this poll has Schmitt overtaking Greitens. If this is correct, it’s good news for Republicans. It’s believed by pundits and party operatives, as polls have shown, that either Schmitt or Hartzler would be a much stronger general election candidate than Greitens, who was forced to resign the governorship in 2018 over sexual misconduct and campaign finance allegations.
- Recently, Greitens’ ex-wife in a child custody case alleged that the former governor and current Senate candidate was physically abusive toward her and their children; Greitens said the allegations were fabricated and baseless.
- This poll finds that Greitens is polling 20% of “Traditional Republicans,” 15% of “Evangelical Republicans” and 30% of “Trump Republicans.”
- The primary is Aug. 2, so there’s a lot of water yet to flow under this bridge.
NEW YORK: GOVERNOR 2022
Among Democratic primary voters statewide
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Gov. Kathy Hochul: 38%
Andrew Cuomo: 30%
Tom Suozzi: 10%
Jumaane Williams: 7%
RON’S COMMENT: This new Siena poll shows Democratic incumbent Hochul leading Cuomo in the primary, but not by that much. A previous Emerson poll we reported had a similar finding, but showed the race even closer (37-33). There is evidence in both polls, however, that Cuomo may have a ceiling of support somewhere in the low 30s. Only 33% of Democrats want Cuomo to run and only 32% think he did not “sexually harass multiple women”…. The former Democratic governor recently ran a TV ad campaign to improve his image…. In the primary match-up, Cuomo beats Hochul 50-23 among Blacks and 36-33 among Latinos. Hochul carries Whites 45-22…. Without Cuomo in the mix, Hochul gets 52% of the primary vote…. Also worth noting:
- Hochul’s rating is 45% favorable/35% unfavorable among all voters in the state. Among only Democrats, her rating is 67% favorable/17% unfavorable.
- Cuomo’s rating is 32% favorable/60% unfavorable among all voters in the state. Among only Democrats, his rating is 50% favorable/42% unfavorable.
- Biden‘s rating is 50% favorable/46% unfavorable among all voters in New York, a state he won by 61-38 in 2020.
FAVORABLE RATINGS
Among adults nationwide
% = Positive / Neutral / Negative
- Volodymyr Zelensky: 67%/20%/7%
- NATO: 51%/27%/14%
- Joe Biden: 37%/16%/46%
- Donald Trump: 36%/13%/50%
- Republican Party: 34%/25%/40%
- Democratic Party: 33%/20%/47%
- Ketanji Brown Jackson: 20%/16%/8%
- Vladimir Putin: 1%/8%/88%
RON’S COMMENT: Note that Biden’s and Trump’s nationwide personal ratings are similar, although Biden’s negative is a bit smaller and his neutral is a bit larger…. Jackson‘s positive is two and a half times bigger than her negative (20 vs. 8). However, we have yet to see any numbers that fully reflect her ratings since the Senate hearings were completed….The Democratic Party has a higher negative than the Republican Party (47 vs. 40)…. Only 14% of Americans now hold an unfavorable view of NATO…. Putin is poison in the U.S. with the lowest positive rating we’ve ever seen.
JACKSON CONFIRMATION
Among adults nationwide
As you may know, Joe Biden recently nominated Ketanji Brown Jackson to serve as a justice on the Supreme Court. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose Ketanji Brown Jackson’s serving as a justice on the Supreme Court, or do you not know enough about her to say?
- Support confirmation: 36%
- Oppose confirmation: 17%
- Don’t know enough: 46%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows that Americans favor the confirmation of Jackson by more than a two-to-one margin. Nearly half say they don’t know enough to form an opinion…. Polling interviews were conducted March 18-22 and the Senate hearings with Jackson were held March 21-23.
REPUBLICANS: PARTY OR TRUMP?
Among voters nationwide
(ASKED OF REPUBLICANS) Do you consider yourself to be more of a supporter of Donald Trump or more of a supporter of the Republican Party?
- Supporter of Trump: 40%
- Supporter of the party: 53%
RON’S COMMENT: The 40% of Republicans who put Trump above the party is much lower than it was two years ago when it was 52%.
LONG TERM AMERICAN DECLINE
Among adults nationwide
All in all, thinking about where the United States is today, do you feel we are experiencing the kind of tough times the country faces from time to time, or is this the start of a longer-term decline where the US is no longer the leading country in the world?
- Experiencing a tough time: 42%
- Start of a longer-term decline: 53%
RON’S COMMENT: A majority of Americans see today’s troubles as the start of a longer-term decline for the U.S.
GENERIC BALLOT FOR CONGRESS
Among voters nationwide
What is your preference for the outcome of this November’s congressional elections––a Congress controlled by Republicans or a Congress controlled by Democrats?
- Republican-controlled: 46%
- Democrat-controlled: 44%
RON’S COMMENT: Over the past month (coinciding with the Ukraine invasion), a 1-point Democratic advantage shifted to a 2-point Republican advantage.
TOP ISSUES
Among adults nationwide
Now, which ONE of these issues is the MOST important issue facing the country?
TOP 5 ISSUES:
- Cost of living: 21%
- Jobs and the economy: 16%
- War between Russia and Ukraine: 14%
- Voting rights and election integrity: 13%
- Climate change: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: Economic issues (21% + 16% = 37%) dominate the policy arena in the U.S. as we move deeper into election year…. Another poll question finds that most Americans think the president should make reducing inflation and improving the economy a more important issue than the war between Russia and Ukraine by a wide margin (68% vs. 29%).
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
MISSOURI: Scout, March 22-23
NEW YORK: Siena College, March 20-24
FAVORABLE RATINGS, JACKSON CONFIRMATION, REPUBLICANS: PARTY OR TRUMP?, LONG TERM AMERICAN DECLINE, GENERIC BALLOT FOR CONGRESS, TOP ISSUES: NBC News, March 18-22
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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