Your Daily Polling Update for Saturday, March 12, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Same as March 8
RON’S COMMENT: Biden perked up from 41% to 43% after the SOTU speech and remains there. Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Rasmussen) to 45% (Reuters, Economist). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (up 2 since Tuesday), putting him at 10 points net negative.
PRESIDENT 2024
Among voters nationwide
Joe Biden and Donald Trump: even (45-45)
RON’S COMMENT: Here’s a result that will likely disappoint both sides––Biden and Trump are tied in the presidential trial heat.
SENATE 2022
Among Republican voters statewide
OHIO
Republican primary
Mike Gibbons: 22%
Josh Mandel: 20%
J.D. Vance: 11%
Jane Timken: 9%
Matt Dolan: 7%
Others: 3%
RON’S COMMENT: The race is for the seat that Sen. Rob Portman (R) is vacating. This poll shows Gibbons, an investment banker and a former Senate candidate, running first and Mandel close behind. Vance, Timken and Dolan are fighting for third place.
PENNSYLVANIA
Republican primary
David McCormick: 24%
Mehmet Oz: 15%
Jeff Bartos: 9%
Kathy Barnette: 9%
Carla Sands: 6%
RON’S COMMENT: This is for the seat of retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R)…. Another poll showing McCormick running first.
GOVERNOR: 2022
Among voters statewide
OHIO
Republican primary
Gov. Mike DeWine: 50%
Joe Blystone: 21%
Jim Renacci: 18%
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent DeWine posts a wide lead over businessman Blystone and former U.S. Rep. Renacci. Among Republicans, DeWine’s rating is 63% favorable/34% unfavorable.
GEORGIA
Republican primary
Gov. Brian Kemp: 50%
David Perdue: 39%
Others: 6%
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Kemp slightly widened his lead over Perdue, his main primary challenger who has Trump’s support. The winner will face Democrat Stacey Abrams in November.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Among U.S. voters nationwide
Volodymyr Zelensky
65% Favorable/8% Unfavorable
Vladimir Putin
4% Favorable/90% Unfavorable
Joe Biden
41% Favorable/56% Unfavorable
Donald Trump
41% Favorable/55% Unfavorable
Democratic Party
40% Favorable/55% Unfavorable
Republican Party
44% Favorable/51% Unfavorable
RON’S COMMENT: Among U.S. voters, Zelensky is most popular––by far…. Biden and Trump are almost identical, with high negative ratings––a good reason why both parties may want to nominate a new face in 2024….. Putin is poison, he gets one of the worst ratings we’ve ever seen.
GENERIC BALLOT FOR CONGRESS
Among voters nationwide
All other things being equal, if the election for Congress were held today, would you be more likely to vote for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate for Congress?
Republican: 46%
Democratic: 41%
FRANCE: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2022
Among voters in France
Based on average of last two polls
Presidential first round:
Emmanuel Macron: 31%
Marine LePen: 17%
Valerie Pecresse: 12%
Eric Zemmour: 12%
Jean-Luc Antoine Pierre Mélenchon: 11%
Others: 17%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll average shows President Macron expanding his lead in the first round of voting in the next presidential election, which will be held April 10. The runoff is April 24. His performance on the world stage relative to the Ukraine crisis seems to be helping him…. Macron is a centrist/liberal and leads the Citizens Together coalition…. Only 5 points separate the second and fifth positions…. LePen leads the National Rally party, formerly the National Front. She supports strict immigration rules and protectionism. This is her third presidential race…. Pecresse is the candidate of The Republicans, which is a center-right party, associated with the Gaullist tradition and former President Nicolas Sarkozy…. Zemmour is the far-right leader of the new Reconquete Party…. Mélenchon represents the left-wing La France Insoumise party…. Looking at runoff average trial heats:
- Macron leads LePen 56-44.
- Macron leads Pecresse 65-35.
- Macron leads Zemmour 64-36.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PENNSYLVANIA, OHIO: Fox News, March 2-6
PRESIDENT: 2024, GENERIC BALLOT FOR CONGRESS, FAVORABILITY RATINGS: Wall Street Journal, March 2-7
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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