LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Biden, Ukraine and Russia – DeSantis, Rubio in Florida – Texas

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, February 28, 2022

Same as Feb. 19

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on eight polls, ranging from 38% (Harvard/Harris, Washington Post/ABC) to 45% (Politico). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (same as Feb. 19), putting him at 14 points net negative.  

  • The Washington Post/ABC finds that only 36% of voters view Biden as a strong leader (60% do not) and only 41% think he has the mental sharpness to be president (54% do not). Also, 43% say he can be trusted in a crisis (53% do not think he can be).

SENATE: 2022
Among voters statewide

Sen. Marco Rubio (R) over Val Demings (D): + 12 (46-34)
RON’S COMMENT: Rubio’s average lead, based on the three most recent polls, is 8.5 points. Democrats still think they have a shot at knocking off Rubio, but it looks like a tough assignment­­––especially with national winds blowing against Democrats.

Among voters statewide


  • Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Charlie Crist (D): +21 (55-34)
  • Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Nikki Fried (D): +23 (55-32)

RON’S COMMENT: DeSantis widens his lead, again. In August, one poll had him only 3 points ahead over Crist. Another recent poll had him 8 points in the lead….  This new UNF poll shows a romp, and operatives from both parties are surprised by the size of the incumbent’s lead. We recommend waiting for the next poll or two to see if these numbers are confirmed…. Also note that DeSantis is running nine points ahead of fellow Republican Rubio…. This poll shows Crist beating Fried in the Democratic primary 27-19, with others receiving 9%.
Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +7 (52-45)
RON’S COMMENT: Based on the four most recent polls, Abbott’s average lead is 8 points.

Among voters nationwide

% = Approve/Disapprove

  • The situation involving Russia and Ukraine: 34%/49%
  • The economy: 37%/59%
  • The coronavirus pandemic: 44%/52%

RON’S COMMENT: For those Democrats who are hoping that Biden’s handling of the Ukraine situation will improve his poll standing, this Washington Post/ABC survey is a clear indication that isn’t happening, at least not so far. Barely a third of the national electorate approves of his handling of the Ukraine…. A hefty one-third of Democrats either disapprove or have no opinion; 54% of independents and 75% of Republicans disapprove…. Not only is Ukraine pulling Biden down, so is the economy. The pandemic, once his polling bright spot, is now also net negative.

Among voters nationwide

Thinking about Russia, do you feel that Russia is a close ally of the U.S.,is friendly but not a close ally, is not friendly but not an enemy, or is unfriendly and an enemy of the U.S.? 

  • Close ally: 1%
  • Friendly, but not close ally: 12%
  • Not friendly but not an enemy: 36%
  • Unfriendly and an enemy: 45%

Given Russian military action involving Ukrainewould you support or oppose the United States and its European allies imposing economic sanctions on Russia? 

  • Support: 70%
  • Oppose: 18%

RON’S COMMENT: 62% of Republicans, 79% of Democrats and 63% of independents support sanctions.
[ASKED OF THOSE WHO SUPPORT SANCTIONS] Would you support or oppose economic sanctions against Russia if they resulted in higher energy prices in the United States? 

  • Support: 77%
  • Oppose: 17%
  • Don’t know: 6%

RON’S COMMENT: 72% of Republicans, 78% of Democrats and 81% of independents who support sanctions would also support them even if they meant higher energy prices in the U.S.

Among voters nationwide

Would you rather see the next Congress controlled by the Republicans to act as a check on Biden, or controlled by the Democrats to support Biden’s agenda?
Republicans: 52%
Democrats: 40%
RON’S COMMENT: These numbers are bad for Democrats and Biden…. Independents prefer Republicans 52-33 over Democrats…. On issues, Republicans beat Democrats by 20 points on the economy. Democrats win on the pandemic by 3 points and on education by 3 points.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
FLORIDA: Univ. of N. Florida, Feb. 7-20
TEXAS: The Hill/Emerson, Feb. 8-15

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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