LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Biden and Ukraine – Pence vs. Trump – DeSantis, Rubio – Georgia Senate

Your Daily Polling Update for Saturday, February 19, 2022

Down 1 from Tuesday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 37% (Quinnipiac) to 44% (Reuters). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (up 2 since Tuesday), putting him at 14 points net negative. 

SENATE: 2022
Among voters statewide

FLORIDA – General election
Sen. Marco Rubio (R) over Val Demings (D): + 7 (49-42)
RON’S COMMENT: Rubio’s average lead, based on the three most recent polls, is 7.3 points. While he has the advantage, he’s struggling to hit the 50% mark. But––Biden’s low job approval in Florida, at 40%, won’t help Demings.
GEORGIA – Republican primary
Herschel Walker: 70% 
Gary Black: 6%
Others: 5%
Undecided: 19%
RON’S COMMENT: Walker, who has Trump’s support, has a big lead in the GOP primary. The winner will face Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock in November.

Among voters statewide

FLORIDA – General election
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Charlie Crist (D): +8 (51-43)
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Nikki Fried (D): +11 (53-42)
RON’S COMMENT: DeSantis widens his lead. In August, one poll had him only 3 points ahead of Crist, now he’s 8 points in the lead…. DeSantis’ job rating is 53% approve/43% disapprove––up from 45% approve/49% disapprove In July 2020…. Crist wins Blacks 84-7 and Hispanics 48-45; DeSantis wins Whites 61-34…. Crist has previously run for statewide office as a Republican and as an independent.
FLORIDA – Democratic primary
Charlie Crist: 44% 
Nikki Fried: 27%
Annette Taddeo: 3%
Undecided: 27%
RON’S COMMENT: Crist, a former governor, holds a sizable lead over the Democratic primary field.
GEORGIA – Republican primary
Gov. Brian Kemp: 49% 
David Perdue: 40%
Others: 4%
Undecided: 8%
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Kemp posts a lead over Perdue, who has Trump’s support. The GOP primary winner will face Democrat Stacey Abrams in November.

Among adults nationwide

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling tensions between Russia and Ukraine?

Approve: 34%
Disapprove: 54%
RON’S COMMENT: At this stage, voters aren’t pleased with the way the president is handling the Ukraine situation. Almost a quarter of Democrats disapprove of his handling of the issue…. Also: 

  • By a 57-35 margin, voters support Biden’s deployment of troops to back up NATO allies. 
  • By a 57-33 margin, voters oppose sending troops to the Ukraine if invaded by Russia

Among adults nationwide

As you may know, former President Donald Trump said publicly that his former Vice President Mike Pence could have overturned the 2020 presidential election. Mike Pence responded by saying Donald Trump was wrong and that while he was vice president, he had no right to overturn the election. Which comes closer to your line of thinking: the view of Donald Trump or the view of Mike Pence? 
Favor Pence’s view: 75%
Favor Trump’s view: 16%
RON’S COMMENT: Voters heavily side with Pence over the dispute he’s been having with Trump about overturning the 2020 election. Even a majority of Republicans––52%––favor Pence’s view and only 36% favor Trump’s view…. Also significant: 74% of independents side with Pence…. This is clearly a loser issue for Trump and those Republican candidates who side with him––which makes it so puzzling why Trump and his allies won’t let it go.

Among adults nationwide

Would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor? 
Excellent/good: 22%
Poor/not so good: 77%
RON’S COMMENT: Negative economic perceptions are currently a serious political problem for Biden and Democrats…. At the end of Trump’s term, the numbers were 43% excellent/good, 56% poor/not so good.

Among adults nationwide

HouseIf the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives? 
Republican Party: 46%
Democratic Party: 44%
RON’S COMMENT: The Republican House lead increased from 1 to 2 points since mid-January.
SenateIf the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives? 
Republican Party: 47%
Democratic Party: 44%
RON’S COMMENT: The Republican Senate lead decreased from 4 to 3 points since mid-January.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
FLORIDA: Mason-Dixon, Feb. 7-10
GEORGIA: Trafalgar (R), Feb. 11-13

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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