Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, February 15, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Same as Feb. 4
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Politico, Economist) to 43% (Reuters). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (down 1 from Feb. 4), putting him at 11 points net negative.
PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATIONS: 2024
Among adults from each party
Democrats: Who do you think the Democratic Party should nominate as the party’s candidate for president in 2024?
Biden: 45%
A different candidate: 51%
RON’S COMMENT: A majority of Democrats would prefer to nominate someone other than Biden in 2024. When asked who that “different candidate” would be, no one gets more than 5%.
Republicans: Who do you think the Republican Party should nominate as the party’s candidate for president in 2024?
Trump: 50%
A different candidate: 49%
RON’S COMMENT: Nearly half of Republicans would prefer to nominate someone other than Trump in 2024. When asked who that “different candidate” would be, Ron DeSantis is first with 21%, and everybody else trails far behind.
TEXAS: GOVERNOR 2022
Among voters statewide
Gov. Greg Abbott (R) over Beto O’Rourke (D): +10 (47-37-7)
RON’S COMMENT: Abbott fails to hit 50%, but posts a sizable lead over O’Rourke. Abbott wins Republicans 85-5, independents 42-21 and Whites 60-27. O’Rourke wins Democrats 78-9, Blacks 62-15 and Hispanics 47-32.
PENNSYLVANIA: SENATE 2022
Among Republican primary voters
Republican primary
- Mehmet Oz: 27%
- David McCormick: 16%
- Carla Sands: 15%
- Kathy Barnette: 9%
- Jeff Bartos: 7%
- Others: 5%
- Undecided: 22%
RON’S COMMENT: This is for the seat of retiring Sen. Pat Toomey (R)…. The race has big national implications…. Dr. Oz, the celebrity doctor, holds a lead despite some early campaign problems…. McCormick has big money and may have the most potential for growth (he was CEO of a hedge fund with $140 billion in assets). He is getting help from a host of former Trump administration officials such as Mike Pompeo, Hope Hicks, Kellyanne Conway and Larry Kudlow….. Sands is a former Trump ambassador to Denmark; she has Newt Gingrich’s support plus a slew of former ambassadors….. Businessman/former lt. governor nominee Bartos and army veteran/political commentator Barnette are supported by party activists.
OHIO: SENATE 2022
Among Republican voters statewide
Republican primary
- Josh Mandel: 21%
- Mike Gibbons: 16%
- J.D. Vance: 14%
- Jane Timken: 10%
- Matt Dolan: 10%
- Others: 3%
- Undecided: 25%
RON’S COMMENT: The race is for the seat that Sen. Rob Portman (R) is vacating…. Mandel is former state treasurer and a two-time Senate candidate…. Gibbons is an investment banker and a former Senate candidate…. Vance is the author of Hillbilly Elegy…. Timken is former chair of the state party… Dolan is a state senator.
FRANCE: PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2022
Among voters in France
Based on average of last three polls
Presidential first round:
- Emmanuel Macron: 25%
- Marine LePen: 17%
- Valerie Pecresse: 16%
- Eric Zemmour: 14%
- Jean-Luc Antoine Pierre Mélenchon: 10%
- Others: 22%
RON’S COMMENT: This poll average shows President Macron leading the first round of voting in the next French presidential election, which will be held April 10. The runoff is April 24…. Macron is the current president; he leads the centrist/liberal Citizens Together coalition…. There’s now a 3-way, maybe 4-way, battle for second place…. LePen leads the National Rally party, formerly the National Front. She supports strict immigration rules and protectionism. This is her third presidential race…. Pecresse is the candidate of The Republicans, which is a center-right party, associated with the Gaullist tradition and former President Nicolas Sarkozy…. Zemmour is the far-right leader of the new Reconquete party…. Mélenchon represents the left-wing La France Insoumise party…. Looking at runoff average trial heats:
- Macron leads LePen 56-44.
- Macron leads Pecresse 54-46.
- Macron leads Zemmour 63-37.
BRITISH POLITICS/BORIS JOHNSON
Among voters in Great Britain
Based on average of last three polls
Political Party Preference:
- Labour: 37%
- Conservative: 34%
- Lib Dems: 11%
- Green: 7%
- Reform: 5%
- SNP: 4%
RON’S COMMENT: Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party has slipped to second place, trailing Labour by a small margin.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson job rating:
24% approve/63% disapprove.
Opposition Leader Keir Starmer job rating:
33% approve/38% disapprove.
Preferred Prime Minister:
Starmer over Johnson: +10 (39-29)
RON’S COMMENT: Videos of a partying Johnson during pandemic lockdowns have hurt the controversial PM…. These polling averages are based on individual polls that treat undecided percentages differently, but they clearly paint a difficult picture for the populist Johnson, who has been described as unconventional, entertaining and pragmatic…. Starmer, who has called himself a socialist, is considered by some to be on the “soft left” side of his Labour Party.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Which City Hall in the U.S. was the tallest habitable building in the world when completed in 1894 and is now the world’s tallest free-standing masonry building––taller, at 548 feet, and with more rooms, than the U.S. Capitol?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATIONS 2024: CNN, Jan. 10-Feb. 6
OHIO: Trafalgar (R), Feb. 8-10
TEXAS: UT/Texas Tribune, Jan. 27-Feb. 7
PENNSYLVANIA: Trafalgar (R), Feb. 1-4
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
TRIVIA ANSWER
The Philadelphia City Hall
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