Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, February 4, 2022
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Up 1 from Wednesday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 38% (Monmouth) to 45% (Reuters, Economist). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (dwon 1 from Wednesday), putting him at 12 points net negative.
NEVADA: SENATE 2022
Among voters statewide
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) over Adam Laxalt (R): +9 (44-35)
RON’S COMMENT: This is the best Democratic incumbent Cortez Masto has done in months. Previous polling had the race closer. Laxalt is the state’s AG and grandson of former Sen. Paul Laxalt (R)…. Handicappers rate the race a tossup.
MINNESOTA: GOVERNOR 2022
Among voters statewide
- Gov. Tim Walz (DFL) over Scott Jensen (R): +3 (43-40-4)
- Gov. Tim Walz (DFL) over Paul Gazelka (R): +5 (42-37-6)
RON’S COMMENT: Based on this poll, incumbent Walz has a fight on his hands to win re-election. Though he’s leading these two Republicans (as well as others), the margins are modest and his rivals have considerably lower name ID––which means they have room to grow.
- Walz has a personal rating of 45% favorable/37% unfavorable/14% neutral.
- Against Jensen, a physician and former state senator, Walz wins Democrats 87-1, but loses Republicans 6-87 and independents 36-40.
- Since December, Walz has slipped 5 points in this poll and Jensen has gone up 4 points.
- During his time in the legislature, Jensen was considered a moderate. He received attention in 2017 when he jumped on stage to give then-Gov. Mark Dayton (D) medical care after Dayton collapsed during a speech.
- Gazelka, a state senator, has risen 3 points since December.
- Handicappers are all over the place on this race, rating it solid, likely and lean Democratic.
CALIFORNIA: GOVERNOR 2022
Among voters statewide
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) job rating:
57% approve/41% disapprove
RON’S COMMENT: Newsom’s approval rating is 87% among Democrats, 12% among Republicans and 44% among independents. He does best in the San Francisco Bay Area (69%) and L.A. (60%)…. Last year, Newsom beat back a recall attempt by a wide 62-38 margin. He has yet to attract major opposition for his re-election this November. Handicappers rate the race solid or safe Democratic…. The poll finds that President Biden’s job rating in California is54% approve/44% disapprove. Biden won 64% of the vote in California in 2020…. From the poll report:
- “Californians most often name COVID-19 (19%) as the most important issue for the governor and legislature to work on in 2022. Additionally, more than one in ten Californians name homelessness (13%) or jobs, the economy, and inflation (12%) as most important. Fewer mention crime, gangs, and drugs (7%), or housing costs and availability (7%). Across partisan groups, Democrats are most likely to mention COVID-19; Republicans are most likely to mention jobs, the economy, and inflation, or crime, gangs, and drugs; and independents are equally as likely to mention COVID-19 or homelessness. Half of Californians say the state is headed in the right direction, with Democrats far more likely than Republicans and independents to say this.”
BIDEN VS. PUTIN: HOW U.S. VOTERS SEE THEM
Among U.S. voters nationwide
Favorability
Biden: 40% favorable/51% unfavorable
Putin: 9% favorable/78% unfavorable
Strong leader
Biden: 33% yes/57% no
Putin: 62% yes/20% no
Honest and trustworthy
Biden: 43% yes/47% no
Putin: 6% yes/79% no
RON’S COMMENT: As you’d expect, U.S. voters regard Biden much more favorably than Putin, and think of Biden as much more honest and trustworthy than Putin––but they see Putin as a stronger leader. It should be noted that 55% of Biden voters see Putin as a strong leader compared to 75% of Trump voters.
UKRAINE & RUSSIA
Among U.S. voters nationwide
Putin: Do you think Vladimir Putin poses a serious threat to the United States?
Yes, a serious threat: 65%
No, not a serious threat: 16%
Not sure: 24%
RON’S COMMENT: 78% of Biden voters and 63% of Trump voters say Putin poses a serious threat to the United States.
Taking sides: In the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, who do you sympathize with more?
Russia: 5%
Ukraine: 64%
Neither: 19%
Not sure: 12%
RON’S COMMENT: 75% of Biden voters and 61% of Trump voters side with Ukraine. 12% of Biden voters and 24% of Trump voters side with neither.
NATO: Do you think Ukraine should be allowed to join NATO?
Yes: 52%
No: 11%
Not sure: 37%
RON’S COMMENT: 65% of Biden voters and 45% of Trump voters say Ukraine should be allowed to join NATO.
Send troops: Do you think [sending soldiers to Ukraine to provide help, but not to fight Russian soldiers] would be a good idea or a bad idea?
Good idea: 35%
Bad idea: 36%
Not sure: 32%
Fight Russia: Do you think [sending soldiers to Ukraine to fight Russian soldiers] would be a good idea or a bad idea?
Good idea: 12%
Bad idea: 59%
Not sure: 29%
RON’S COMMENT: While U.S. voters side with Ukraine, and a little more than a third are willing to send troops to help Ukraine, only 12% want to send U.S. troops to fight Russian troops.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
BIDEN VS. PUTIN: HOW U.S. VOTERS SEE THEM, UKRAINE & RUSSIA: The Economist/YouGov, Jan. 29-Feb. 1
NEVADA: OH Predictive Insights, Jan. 16-25
WISCONSIN: SurveyUSA, Jan. 25-Jan.30
CALIFORNIA: Nevada Independent/PPIC, Jan. 16-25
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
BIDEN VS. PUTIN: HOW U.S. VOTERS SEE THEM, UKRAINE & RUSSIA: The Economist/YouGov, Jan. 29-Feb. 1
NEVADA: OH Predictive Insights, Jan. 16-25
WISCONSIN: SurveyUSA, Jan. 25-Jan.30
CALIFORNIA: Nevada Independent/PPIC, Jan. 16-25
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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