LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Trump vs. Biden, But Voters Want Neither to Run – 2024 Nomination Races – Democracy Working? – Nation United?

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, January 26, 2022

Same as Thursday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 40% (Insider Advantage, Rasmussen) to 43% (Reuters). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 56% today (same as Thursday), putting him at 15 points net negative. 

Among voters nationwide

Biden re-elect among all voters [Fox News Poll]  

  • Vote to re-elect Joe Biden: 36% 
  • Vote for someone else: 60%

RON’S COMMENT: Only 36% say they would either definitely (21%) or probably (15%) vote for Biden again. Not good for an incumbent.

Biden vs. Generic Republican [Politico Poll]  

If the 2024 presidential election were held today, would you vote for Joe Biden or the eventual Republican candidate?

  • Republican candidate over Joe Biden: +9 (46-37)

RON’S COMMENT: Biden is polling 14 points below his 2020 election vote…. The generic Republican beats Biden 41-21 among independent voters, with 38% undecided…. Note that Biden’s re-elect is 37% in the Politico poll and a similar 36% in the Fox News poll…. Of course, there is no such thing as an election between a real candidate and an unnamed one, so let’s look at actual trial heats with named challengers….

Among voters nationwide

[Politico Poll]  

  • Joe Biden (D) over Donald Trump (R): +1 (45-44)
  • Joe Biden (D) over Mike Pence (R): +2 (44-42)
  • Joe Biden (D) over Ron DeSantis (R): +5 (44-39)
  • Joe Biden (D) over Ted Cruz (R): +6 (45-39)

[Harvard/Harris Poll]  

  • Donald Trump (R) over Joe Biden (D): +6 (46-40)
  • Donald Trump (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +10 (49-39)
  • Ron DeSantis (R) over Kamala Harris (D): +1 (40-39)

RON’S COMMENT: As you can see, Biden is leading all four Republicans in the Politico poll, but Trump leads Biden in the Harvard/Harris poll…. In the Politico poll, Pence does better in a general election than either DeSantis or Cruz…. If Biden doesn’t seek re-election, the Trump vs. Harris numbers from Harvard/Harris should give pause to Democrats about the VP’s strength as a presidential candidate…. When looking at 2024 numbers, keep in mind that Biden beat Trump 51.3% to 46.9% in the 2020 national popular vote.

Among adults nationwide

Would you like to see each of the following individuals run for president in 2024, or not? 
% = Yes/No

  • Joe Biden: 28%/70%
  • Donald Trump: 27%/72%

RON’S COMMENT: Big majorities of Americans want neither Biden nor Trump to run again. Time for a new face?

Among Democratic primary voters nationwide

Democratic presidential nomination 

  • Joe Biden: 32%
  • Kamala Harris: 14%
  • Bernie Sanders: 11%
  • Hillary Clinton: 11%

RON’S COMMENT: Biden polls less than a third of Democratic primary voters nationwide, not a particularly strong showing for an incumbent president among voters of his own party.
Democratic presidential nomination (without Biden) 

  • Kamala Harris: 23%
  • Bernie Sanders: 17%
  • Hillary Clinton: 12%

RON’S COMMENT: Assuming Biden is out of the race, none of these three well-known Democrats are setting the party on fire…. Moreover, nearly half of Democrats polled are not voting for any of them…. Over the past 14 years, Harris, Sanders and Clinton, between them, have lost a total of five presidential bids…. Note: The co-director of this Harvard/Harris poll was Mark Penn, who once served as Hillary Clinton’s top strategist.

Among Republican primary voters nationwide

Republican presidential nomination 

  • Donald Trump: 49%
  • Ron DeSantis: 14%
  • Mike Pence: 13%
  • Mitt Romney: 4%
  • Nikki Haley: 2%
  • Liz Cheney: 2%
  • Ted Cruz: 2%
  • Josh Hawley: 2%
  • Tim Scott: 1%
  • Chris Christie: 1%
  • Marco Rubio: 1%
  • Larry Hogan: 1%
  • Mike Pompeo: 1%
  • Someone else: 2%

RON’S COMMENT: In this poll, Trump beats the GOP field 49-46…. While Trump is clearly ahead, 51% of the Republican electorate (when you include those who say they won’t vote for any of the listed candidates) shows some level of resistance to his renomination.

Among adults nationwide

How well would you say democracy is working in the United States these days? 

  • Extremely/very well: 8%
  • Somewhat well: 38%
  • Not very/not well at all: 53%

RON’S COMMENT: Since July in this poll, those saying “extremely/very well” dropped from 15% to 8% and those saying “not very/not well at all” increased from 44% to 53%.

Among adults nationwide

Do you think Joe Biden’s presidency has made the country more united, more divided, or neither more united nor more divided? 

  • Much more united/somewhat more united: 16% 
  • Neither more united nor more divided: 42% 
  • Much more divided/somewhat more divided: 43% 

Among adults nationwide

Would you say you have a great deal of confidence, only some confidence or hardly any confidence, hardly any confidence, only some confidence, or a great deal of confidence in Joe Biden’s ability to: 
% = Great deal of confidence/Only some confidence/Hardly any confidence

  • Effectively manage the White House: 28%/33%/38% 
  • Work with Republicans in Congress: 10%/38%/51% 
  • Work with Democrats in Congress: 30%/46%/23% 
  • Effectively manage the military: 25%/36%/38% 
  • Incorporate advice of advisers/experts into decision making: 31%/37%/31%
  • Promote the U.S. standing in the world: 26%/34%/38% 
  • Get the country through the pandemic: 23%/38%/37%

RON’S COMMENT: Over the past year, Americans with a “great deal of confidence” in Biden has declined:  

  • 16 points for effectively managing the White House
  • 10 points for working with Republicans
  • 10 points for effectively managing the military 
  • 16 points for incorporating advice of advisers/experts into his decision making.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
BIDEN VS. SOMEONE ELSE: Fox News Poll, Jan. 16-19 
RUN IN 2024? DIVIDED NATION? DEMOCRACY WORKING? BIDEN CONFIDENCE: Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, Jan.13-18
PRESIDENT 2024, 2024 DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION: Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll, Jan. 19-20.
PRESIDENT 2024, 2024 REPUBLICAN NOMINATION: Politico/Morning Consult Poll, Jan. 22-23.

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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