LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Biden Issue Ratings – Michigan Governor – North Carolina Senate, Presidential Primary

Your Daily Polling Update for Sunday, January 16, 2022

Down 1 from Jan. 8

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 35% (Quinnipiac) to 45% (Reuters, Economist). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Jan. 8), putting him at 13 points net negative. 

  • Recent media stories that Biden’s job rating had fallen to 33% were based on one poll (Quinnipiac) with a sample that included some respondents who are not registered voters. Other polls have Biden higher, hence the average of 41%…. The 35% Quinnipiac approval number we’re using for today’s average is based on the poll’s sample of only registered voters, which is what we prefer to use when available.

Among Republican voters statewide

Republican presidential primary

  • Donald Trump: 47% 
  • Ron DeSantis: 19% 
  • Nikki Haley: 8% 
  • Mike Pence: 5% 
  • Tim Scott: 2% 
  • Ted Cruz: 2% 
  • Kristi Noem: 1% 
  • Undecided: 16% 

RON’S COMMENT: This poll is not particularly good for anybody except DeSantis. Though Trump easily wins, his vote falls below 50%––which means a majority of Republicans in North Carolina have some resistance to voting for the former president. Both Haley and Scott should be doing better in a neighboring state. Mid-to-low single digits is not good a place for either Pence or Cruz.

Among voters statewide  

  • Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over James Craig (R): +10 (49-39)
  • Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Garrett Soldano (R): +17 (50-33)
  • Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Kevin Rinke (R): +17 (50-33)
  • Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) over Tutor Dixon (R): +19 (50-31)

RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Whitmer leads all Republican possibilities by sizable margins…. Whitmer’s job rating is 56% approve/39% disapprove. That’s an improvement from the fall when it was 48-44…. However, 40% of voters want to re-elect her and 42% would like somebody new. The rest are in the middle and, based on this polling, mostly lean toward re-electing the incumbent…. All the GOP possibilities lack strong statewide name recognition, which means they could have growth potential…. Craig is a former police chief of Detroit and the frontrunner in the GOP primary; Soldano is a chiropractor, businessman and former co-chair of Unlock Michigan; Rinke is a businessman; Tutor is a conservative commentator. 

Among Republican voters statewide

Republican Senate primary

  • Pat McCrory: 24%
  • Ted Budd: 19%
  • Mark Walker: 7%
  • Marjorie Eastman: 1%
  • Kenneth Bishop: 1%
  • Undecided: 49% 

RON’S COMMENT: This primary is for the seat of retiring Sen. Richard Burr (R)…. McCrory, a former governor (2013-17), leads the GOP field, but the undecided vote is very high. U.S. Rep. Budd is the Trump candidate. Walker is a former congressman (2015-21). Also: 

  • In a two-way trial heat with McCrory vs. Budd, Budd edges McCrory 34-33.
  • Favorability ratings among Republican voters in the state: Trump 80-17, McCrory 52-28, Budd 41-9.
  • Republicans see securing the border, election integrity and fighting inflation as the top issues.
  • Ideology: 2% of Republican voters see themselves as “liberal,” 11% as “moderate,” 23% as “somewhat conservative,” 45% as “very conservative,” and 17% as “extremely conservative.”
  • Cheri Beasley, a former Chief Justice of the state Supreme Court and the first African-American woman appointed to that position, lost a very close election for a full term in 2020. She is now the frontrunner to be Democratic nominee for the Senate.
  • Favorability ratings among Republican voters in the state: Trump 80-17, McCrory 52-28, Budd 41-9.
  • Another recent poll from Strategic Partners (R) shows McCrory leading Budd 30-21 in a multi-candidate race.

Among voters nationwide

Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job? 
Approve: 25%
Disapprove: 64%
Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job? 
Approve: 30%
Disapprove: 61%
Generic ballot for the House: If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives?
Republican Party: 44%
Democratic Party: 43%
Generic ballot for the Senate: If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States Senate?
Republican Party: 46%
Democratic Party: 42%
RON’S COMMENT: Even though Republicans in Congress rate a bit weaker than do Democrats in terms of job approval, Republicans lead Democrats in generic ballot tests for both the House (+1) and the Senate (+4)…. The reason for this? Perhaps individual Democratic members are a little more personally popular than individual Republican members in states without battleground elections. That could also be true about individual Democratic members of the House vs. the Senate. We’d need district by district and state by state polls to determine for sure.

Among voters nationwide

% = Approve/Disapprove

  • His handling of the coronavirus: 40%/55%
  • His handling of the economy: 36%/57%
  • His handling of foreign policy: 35%/55%

RON’S COMMENT: There’s nothing in this set of numbers that Democrats should he happy about. Biden, who was elected with 51% of the vote, now gets major issue ratings of 40% and below.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
MICHIGAN: Detroit News/WDIV-TV, Jan. 3-7
NORTH CAROLINA: Civitas/Cygnal (R), Jan. 7-9

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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