A new software tool has been developed by the US military commanders in the Pacific to predict how the Chinese government would react to certain US actions in the region, such as US officials’ visits to hotspots like Taiwan or military activities backed by the US.
Analyzing data since early 2020, the computer-based tool calculates the “strategic friction” by evaluating significant activities impacting US-Sino relations, which could help Pentagon predict if and when certain actions could provoke an ‘adverse’ Chinese reaction.
US Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks, who was briefed on the new tool during a visit to the US Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii, said that considering the spectrum of conflict and challenges entering the so-called grey zone, the US needs to understand the threat interaction by looking at a far broader set of mutually intertwined indicators.
Hicks pointed that the need for such a tool is fueled by the Incidents like the one in October when Beijing blasted the US and Canada’s decision to send warships through the Taiwan Strait as a threat to the peace and stability in the region.
According to her, the United States must be sure not to inadvertently upset China with its actions that might cause similar incidents.
Washington is fully aware of the risks of an outsized or unintended Chinese reaction provoked by a variety of its activities such as congressional visits to Taiwan, the US ships sailing through the Taiwan Strait, or the arms sales to allies in the region, in a situation in which relations with China are already at a very low point.
China has never given up on claims that democratically ruled Taiwan is its own territory, enforcing over the past year that claim by mounting repeated air force missions into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ).
Hence the need for such a tool that provides visibility across actions that could provoke Beijing’s ire and would allow US officials to look forward at planned actions as far as four months in advance.
The news of the new toll comes in a time when while the Biden administration is drafting the 2023 budget with the Department of Defense hoping to channel budget dollars toward a military that can deter China and Russia.
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