LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Should Biden, Trump Run Again? – Public Statues – Harris’ Lopsided Rating – 2022 Ballot Test – Texas

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, November 8, 2021

Same as last Tuesday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 38% (USA Today/Suffolk) to 48% (Reuters). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (up 2 from Tuesday), putting him at 10 points net negative. 

  • VP Kamala Harris’ job rating is 28% approve/51% disapprove––putting her at a crushing 23 points net negative (USA Today/Suffolk).

Among voters statewide

Gov. Greg Abbott (D) over Beto O’Rourke (R): +9 (46-37-7)
RON’S COMMENT: This UT poll shows incumbent Abbott with a clear lead. Most local pols find this more believable than the last poll we reported, from Rice, which had the race nearly tied. Other findings: 

  • Though he’s leading O’Rourke, Abbott’s job rating is not so good: 43% approve/48% disapprove––which gives Democrats a glimmer of hope.
  • O’Rourke’s rating is decidedly under water: 35% favorable/50% unfavorable. While the former Democratic presidential candidate does better with fellow Democrats in his home state, his Achilles’ heel is found among Texas independents, who rate him a dismal 22% favorable/48% unfavorable. 
  • Matthew McConaughey, who remains a possible contender, posts the only net positive rating, at 35% favorable/24% unfavorable.
  • President Biden, who lost Texas last year by 6.5 points, is even weaker now: 35% approve/55% disapprove.
  • In the Republican gubernatorial primary, Abbott polls 70% against an unspecified field.
  • In the Democratic gubernatorial primary, O’Rourke polls 56% and possible opponents get a total of 28%.
  • In the Republican AG primary, incumbent Ken Paxton leads George P. Bush, son of Jeb, by a wide 48-16 margin. Others get a total of 8%. However, Paxton’s job rating is taking water: 35% approve/37% disapprove
  • In the Republican Lt. Gov. primary, Mike Collier leads Matthew Dowd 17-13.

Among voters nationwide

From the new USA Today/Suffolk Univ. nationwide poll:

  • Most voters now say they would vote for a Republican congressional candidate over a Democrat––by a 46%-38% margin. That’s bad news for Democrats who are struggling to hold onto their House and Senate majorities. 
  • There is strong support for the recently-passed infrastructure bill––61% of voters favor it and 32% oppose it.
  • There is less support for the bigger “Build Back Better” bill now being considered in Congress––47% of voters support it and 44% oppose it. But here’s the killer: More voters (30-26) say the $1.85 trillion “Build Back Better” bill would”hurt” rather than “help” them and their families. The other 31% say the bill would not have much effect. That means only about a quarter of the electorate believes the bill would be helpful to them.
  • 46% of voters say Biden has done a worse job as president than they expected, and that includes 16% of those who voted for him. Here’s the killer: Critically important independents by more than a 7-1 margin (44%-6%) say Biden has done worse, not better, than they expected.
  • 64% of voters say they don’t want Biden to run for a second term in 2024. That includes 28% of Democrats. 
  • 58% of voters say they don’t want Trump to run in 2024. That includes 24% of Republicans. 

RON’S COMMENT: Except for the strong support registered for the infrastructure bill, these numbers are terrible for the president and his party…. Democrats will argue that this poll caught them at their “bottom” coming right after their Virginia debacle and the close call in New Jersey. We’ll have to wait and see if they’re right…. One note of bipartisanship: Big majorities of voters want neither Biden nor Trump to run again.

Among voters nationwide

Do you believe that each of the following historical figures should or should not have statues or memorials of them in public places? 
% = Should have statues / Should not

  • Abraham Lincoln: 80%/9%
  • Martin Luther King: 78%/11% 
  • George Washington: 77%/10%
  • Rosa Parks: 69%/15% 
  • Thomas Jefferson: 62%/16%
  • Eleanor Roosevelt: 55%/18% 
  • Alexander Hamilton: 51%/16% 
  • Muhammad Ali: 44%/30%
  • Christopher Columbus: 44%/38%
  • Andrew Jackson: 42%/30% 
  • Woodrow Wilson: 38%/24% 
  • Robert E. Lee: 37%/40% 
  • Jefferson Davis: 29%/35%

RON’S COMMENT: Only two on this list, Lee and Davis, draw more opposition for their public statues and memorials than support…. Note (below) that Jackson and Wilson, two Democrats, are now better rated by Republicans than Democrats: 

  • Republicans are 85%/5% on Washington, 79%/8% on Jefferson, 64%/16% on Lee, 66%/15% on Jackson, 70%/19% on King and 86%/7% on Lincoln, 35%/39% on Ali and 50%/20% on Wilson. 
  • Democrats are 67%/15% on Washington, 46%/24% on Jefferson, 18%/57% on Lee, 25%/39% on Jackson, 82%/7% on King, 76%/11% on Lincoln, 54%/21% on Ali and 27%/24% on Wilson.
  • Black voters and nonvoters combined are 49%/18% on Washington, 32%/32% on Jefferson, 19%/48% on Lee, 23%/34% on Jackson, 69%/9% on King, 54%/17% on Lincoln, 55%/15% on Ali, and 23%/32% on Wilson.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
TEXAS: UT/Texas Tribune, Oct. 22-31
2022 ELECTIONS, SPENDING BILLS, BIDEN, TRUMP: USA Today/Suffolk Univ., Nov. 3-5
STATUES IN PUBLIC PLACES: The Economist/YouGov, Oct. 30-Nov. 2

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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