Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, October 26, 2021
BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Same as Thursday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on 10 polls, ranging from 37% (Grinnell/Selzer) to 45% (Fox News, Reuters). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as Thursday), putting him 10 points net negative…. A look at Biden’s ratings: The Gallup poll shows that Biden’s job approval rating had been in the mid-50s (54% to 57%) between February and June. Then it slipped to 50% and 49% in July. Now it’s 42%, 15 points off the 57% high. From the Gallup report:
- “As has been the case for Biden throughout his presidency, Democrats and Republicans hold diametrically opposite views of his performance. In the latest survey, 92% of Democrats approve and 6% disapprove of the job Biden is doing, while 4% of Republicans approve and 94% disapprove.
- “The 88-point partisan gap in job approval is the largest for Biden thus far in his presidency and ranks among the largest in more than eight decades of Gallup measurements of presidential approval. Donald Trump is the only president to receive more politically polarized approval ratings, having done so on several occasions, including a record 92 points just before the 2020 election.
- “Given the extreme partisan gaps in Biden’s approval ratings, political independents’ changing views of him are largely responsible for the recent declines in his approval rating. Currently, 34% of independents approve of the job Biden is doing, the lowest of his term to date. His approval among independents has fallen a total of 21 points since June, including nine points since August.”
VIRGINIA: GOVERNOR 2021
Among voters statewide
(Emerson) Terry McAuliffe (D) and Glenn Youngkin (R): even (49-49)
(Suffolk) Terry McAuliffe (D) over Glenn Youngkin (R): +1 (46-45)
(Cygnal-R) Terry McAuliffe (D) and Glenn Youngkin (R): even (48-48)
(KA Consulting-R) Glenn Youngkin (R) over Terry McAuliffe (D): +2 (43-41)
RON’S COMMENT: Two new polls show a dead heat, one has McAuliffe slightly ahead and one has Youngkin slightly ahead…. Note that two polls reporting today have Republican affiliations…. To illustrate the tightening trend, Emerson College’s mid-September poll had McAuliffe up by 4 points and their early October poll had him up by 1 point. Their new poll has it even…. Without allocating undecideds in the Emerson poll, the race is 48-48…. Other findings:
- Biden: Even though the Suffolk Univ. poll has Biden with a net negative job rating (42% approve/52% disapprove) in Virginia, it also shows Biden beating Trump in a 2024 trial heat by 48-41. In the actual 2020 election, Biden won the state 54-44. These numbers are telling for the Republican Party as it looks to the future: While Biden is way down, he still manages to beat Trump by a clear margin.
- Northam: Incumbent Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam’s job rating is 48% approve/43% disapprove in the Suffolk poll.
- Lieutenant governor race: Suffolk has Democrat Hala Ayala leading Republican Winsome Sears, 46-44. Cygnal (R) has Ayala in a virtual tie with Sears, 47-47.
- AG race: Emerson has Democratic incumbent Mark Herring leading Republican Jason Miyares by a thin 50-49 margin when leaners are included. Suffolk has Herring leading 48-45 and Cygnal (R) has Herring on top 48-47.
- Parents vs. school boards: When Virginia voters were asked in the Suffolk poll whether parents or school boards should have “more of an influence on a school’s curriculum,” 50% say parents and 39% say school boards.
NEW JERSEY: GOVERNOR 2021
Among voters statewide
Gov. Phil Murphy (D) over Jack Ciatterelli (R): +4 (52-48)
RON’S COMMENT: New Jersey also has a gubernatorial election Nov. 2. While the Democratic incumbent is favored to win, polling has tightened considerably. The numbers (above) include an allocation of undecideds; without that, Murphy leads by 6 points, 50-44…. In August, Murphy led by a much wider 13-16 points…. While Republicans are beginning to hope for an upset and Democrats are expressing new concern, most operatives in the state still expect Murphy to win.
ECONOMY, INFLATION, LABOR AND SUPPLY SHORTAGES
Among adults nationwide
Findings from the new CNBC poll:
- “Behind the decline [in Biden’s overall job rating] is a surge in negative views of his handling of the economy, with just 40% approving and 54% disapproving, a 7-point increase from July.
- “The president’s numbers are declining as concerns about the economy, inflation and supply shortages rise sharply.
- “Inflation now ties with the coronavirus as the biggest concern for Americans, up 16 points from the prior survey. A plurality of 47% of the public believe there will be a recession in the next year, up 13 points from when the question was last asked in 2019.”
- “Recession worries come with increasingly negative views about the current and future state of the economy: 46% say the economy will get worse in the year ahead, the most in the 13-year history of the poll and 79% judge the economy as just fair or poor, the most since 2014.”
- “The survey clearly shows Americans noticing the supply and labor shortages that are plaguing businesses. Some 60% of the public say goods that were once easy to buy are in short supply, including food and groceries, paper products, and cleaning products.
- “Also, 66% appear to have noticed labor shortages, saying they have experienced stores closed on odd days or at strange hours when they normally would be open.”
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Who was the only person to represent three states in the U.S. Senate? (Hint: He also served as a general in two wars, challenged Abe Lincoln to a duel in 1842 and is commemorated with a statue in the U.S. Capitol.)
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
VIRGINIA:Emerson College/Nexstar Media, Oct. 22-23; Cygnal (R), Oct. 19-21; KA Consulting (R)/The Presidential Coalition, Oct.18-21
NEW JERSEY: Emerson College, Oct. 15-18
THE ECONOMY, INFLATION, SUPPLY SHORTAGES: CNBC/Hart, POS, Oct. 14-17
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
TRIVIA ANSWER
James Shields. He served as a U.S. senator from Illinois (1849-55), Minnesota (1858-59) and Missouri (1879). Though he challenged Lincoln to a duel, the two would later become friends. A brigadier general in both the Mexican-American and Civil Wars, he died in 1879 and represents Illinois in the U.S. Capitol’s Statuary Hall collection.
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