LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Texas Politics – Virginia Race Remains Close – Another Bush in Texas

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, September 20, 2021

Up 1 from Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 43% (Rasmussen) to 50% (Fox News). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (same as Friday), putting him 5 points net negative.

Among voters statewide

Terry McAuliffe (D) over Glenn Youngkin (R): +3 (50-47)
RON’S COMMENT: Former Gov. McAuliffe has moved up to 50% in this poll among “likely voters,” but voters who say they’re “absolutely certain” to vote show McAuliffe leading by a slightly narrower 49-47 margin…. Turnout will be a big factor in this race…. Youngkin leads on the economy, crime and safety and taxes. McAuliffe leads on the coronavirus and education. Abortion is close…. The poll finds Biden’s job rating is net negative in the state, 46% approve/51% disapprove––that’s not so hot for McAuliffe. Biden carried Virginia in 2020 by 10 points…. The four latest polls give McAuliffe an average lead of 3.3 points.

Among voters statewide

McConaughey vs. Abbott: Matthew McConaughey has been talked about as a potential candidate for Governor of Texas. If he ran, would you be likely to support him more than Governor Abbott?
Matthew McConaughey: 44% 
Greg Abbott: 35%
Someone else: 21% 
O’Rourke vs. Abbott: Beto O’Rourke has been talked about as a potential candidate for Governor of Texas. If he ran, would you be likely to support him more than Governor Abbott? 
Greg Abbott: 42%
Beto O’Rourke: 37%
Someone else: 21% 
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows McConaughey leading incumbent Republican Gov. Abbott by 9 points, but finds Abbott leading O’Rourke by 5 points…. Texas voters oppose Abbott’s ban on mask mandates, 55-44, and they split on his ban on vaccine mandates, 49-49. Also, 50% of voters believe masks should be required in K-12 classrooms, 26% think schools should decide and 20% favor no mandates…. Internals: 

  • Abbott leads McConaughey among Republicans 63-26.
  • McConaughey leads Abbott among Democrats 65-11.
  • McConaughey leads Abbott among independents 44-28.
  • Abbott leads O’Rourke among Republicans 75-10.
  • O’Rourke leads Abbott among Democrats 71-12.
  • Abbott leads O’Rourke among independents 35-34.
  • 59% of Democrats, 64% of independents and 39% of Republicans say the state is headed in the “wrong direction.”
  • In the Texas Democratic gubernatorial primary, a generic “progressive” beats a “centrist” 54-25.
  • In the Texas Republican primary for AG, incumbent Ken Paxton leads George P. Bush 43-28; a third candidate gets 5%. Bush is the son of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

Gov. Greg Abbott (R)
Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 44%
Neither: 11%
Beto O’Rourke (D)
Favorable: 34%
Disapprove: 42%
Neither: 16%
Lt. Governor Dan Patrick (R)
Approve: 36%
Disapprove: 32%
Neither: 32%
Attorney General Ken Paxton (R)
Approve: 35%
Disapprove: 32%
Neither: 32%
President Joe Biden (D)
Approve: 40%
Disapprove: 52%
Neither: 9%
Vice President Kamala Harris (D)
Favorable: 36%
Disapprove: 48%
Neither: 13%
Senator John Cornyn (R)
Favorable: 38%
Disapprove: 26%
Neither: 26%
Senator Ted Cruz (R)
Favorable: 44%
Disapprove: 42%
Neither: 11%

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
VIRGINIA: Washington Post, Sept. 13-14
TEXAS: Dallas Morning News/UT Tyler, Sept. 7-14

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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