LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Climate Change – DeSantis – German Election – More Recall Polls

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, September 10, 2021

BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: The most recent polls show Biden settling in at an average of 45% since the fall of Kabul…. Today’s average is based on three polls, ranging from 43% (Economist) to 47% (Reuters). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 50% today (+1 from yesterday)…. Looking at the internals from The Economist poll, we find Biden’s job approval rating to be 77% among Democrats, 9% among Republicans and 35% among independents.

CALIFORNIA RECALL
Among voters statewide

% = For recall/Against recall

• (SurveyUSA) 41%/54% (against recall +13)
• (Berkeley/IGS/LA Times) 39%/60% (against recall +21)
• (YouGov) 43%/57% (against recall +14)

RON’S COMMENT: Three more polls showing the recall of Gov. Newsom losing by substantial margins…. Replacement candidates: The LA Times poll has Elder 38%, Paffrath 10%, Faulconer 8%, Cox 4%…. The YouGov poll has Elder 24%, Paffrath 7%, Faulconer 5%, Cox 3%…. SurveyUSA, the most recent poll, has  Elder 29%, Paffrath 9%, Faulconer 6% and Cox 8%…. If Newsom is not recalled, the replacement race doesn’t matter.

FLORIDA: GOVERNOR 2022
Among voters statewide

Charlie Crist (D) over Gov. Ron DeSantis (R): +8 (54-46)
Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over Nikki Fried (D): +4 (52-48)

RON’S COMMENT: If accurate, this new poll conducted by a Florida-based survey firm finds GOP incumbent DeSantis in a tough fight for re-election. While he posts a modest lead over Democrat Fried, he’s losing to former governor Crist by a clear margin…. In July, the poll had DeSantis leading Crist by 10 points and Fried by 21 points…. The latest poll also finds that: 

• 41% of Florida voters have favorable feelings toward DeSantis’ handling of the pandemic, while 47% have unfavorable feelings.
• 40% support DeSantis’ policy of imposing fines on businesses, schools and governments that require proof of vaccinations, but 60% oppose his policy.
• 30% support DeSantis’ policy of withholding salaries from school board members and school superintendents that make masks mandatory, but 70% oppose his policy.

CLIMATE CHANGE
Among voters nationwide

Overall viewpoint: On the subject of climate change do you think: 

• The world’s climate is changing as a result of human activity: 55%
• The world’s climate is changing but NOT because of human activity: 26% 
• The world’s climate is NOT changing: 8% 
• Not sure: 12% 

RON’S COMMENT: 88% of Biden’s voters and 20% of Trump’s voters believe climate is changing as a result of human activity. 
 
Recent weather: Do you think the recent Western drought and wildfires, and the severe hurricanes and floods in the East, are the result of climate change or are the kind of events that just happen from time to time? 

• Result of climate change: 50% 
• Just happen from time to time: 39% 
• Not sure: 10%

RON’S COMMENT: 86% of Biden’s voters and 14% of Trump’s voters believe the recent drought and wildfires, and the severe hurricanes and floods, are the result of climate change.
 
Effectiveness of government action: Do you think governments and countries can take actions that will significantly slow the speed of climate change?

• Yes, they can: 49%
• No, they can’t: 35%
• Not sure: 16%

RON’S COMMENT: 79% of Biden’s voters and 18% of Trump’s voters think governments and countries can take actions that will significantly slow the speed of climate change.

BOOSTER SHOTS
Among adults nationwide

[Asked of those who have been vaccinated] To combat variants, some countries — including the U.S. — are now or will soon be offering boosters to adults. Would you get a booster shot if it were available to you?

• Yes, will get booster: 70%
• No, won’t get a booster: 8%
• Not sure: 20%
• Already have had a booster: 2%

RON’S COMMENT: Of those who have been vaccinated, the following say they will get a booster: 83% of Democrats, 59% of Republicans, 62% of independents, 70% of Blacks, 61% of Hispanics, 70% of men, 70% of women, 65% of White men without college degrees, 81% of White men with college degrees, 64% of White women without college degrees and 79% of White women with college degrees.

GERMAN FEDERAL ELECTION: 2021
Among voters nationwide in Germany

Average of three most recent polls:

• SPD, center-left (Olaf Scholz): 26%
• Union CDU/CSU, center-right (Armin Lashet): 21%
• Grune, center-left (Annalena Baerbock): 16%
• FDP, classical-liberal (Christian Lindner): 12%
• AfD, populist-right (Alice Weidel): 11%
• Linke, left-wing (Janine Wissler): 6%

RON’S COMMENT: The election is Sept. 26. Incumbent Chancellor Angela Merkel is not running…. The Union coalition (CDU, CSU) led by Markel now has 245 seats. The SPD has 152 seats, Afd (The Alternative) has 88 seats, Linke has 69 seats, the Greens have 67 seats, and FDP has 80 seats.

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
BOOSTER SHOTS, CLIMATE CHANGE: The Economist/YouGov, Sept. 4-7
CALIFORNIA: SurveyUSA/KABC, Sept. 6-7; YouGov/Stanford, Aug. 27-Sept. 1; Berkeley/IGS/LA Times, Aug. 30-Sept. 6
FLORIDA: The Listener Group/The Political Matrix, Sept. 3-5

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron.

Follow here to get the latest updates on the Lunchtime Politics.