LUNCHTIME POLITICS: California Recall Losing – Virginia – New Hampshire – Biden

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, September 1, 2021

BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%
Down 1 from Friday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 42% (Rasmussen) to 49% (Reuters). Biden’s disapproval rating averages 49% today (-1 from Friday).

CALIFORNIA RECALL
Among voters statewide

CORRECTED:
% = Vote for recall/Vote against recall
(SurveyUSA): 43%/51% (anti-recall +8)
(Trafalgar-R): 44%/52% (anti-recall +8)

RON’S COMMENT: Two polls showing the recall of Gov. Newsom failing. Moreover, the anti-recall side has over 50%….Should be noted that SurveyUSA a month ago had the pro-recall side leading by 11 points, now they have the anti-recall side leading by 8 points; that’s a big turnaround. If the SurveyUSA numbers are accurate, it’s an indication that Democrats are succeeding in making the recall less of an up or down referendum on Newsom and more of a choice between Democrat Newsom and Republican Larry Elder…. In the replacement candidate field:

• Trafalgar, a Republican firm, finds Elder running first with 29%, and Paffrath, a Democrat, running second with 22%. Both Cox and Faulconer each have 4%.
• SurveyUSA has Elder at 27% and Paffrath at 6%. Six other candidates have 5-6%.
• Of course, if Newsom is not recalled, the replacement field doesn’t matter.

VIRGINIA: GOVERNOR 2021
Among voters statewide

(Monmouth) Terry McAuliffe (D) over Glenn Youngkin (R): +5 (47-42-2)
(Trafalgar) Terry McAuliffe (D) over Glenn Youngkin (R): +1 (47-46-2)
 
RON’S COMMENT: More polls showing former governor McAuliffe ahead, although the Trafalgar poll has the race nearly tied. The two prior polls had McAuliffe’s average lead at 8.5 points.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: SENATE 2022
Among voters statewide

Chris Sununu (R) over Sen. Maggie Hassan (D): +8 (49-41)
 
RON’S COMMENT: This poll is bad news for Democrats. It shows GOP governor Sununu with a clear lead over Senate incumbent Hassan…. Sununu has not yet announced whether he will run…. Hassan’s job rating is 44% approve/47% disapprove…. Looks like the Afghan situation may be hurting Democrats in this swing state: 14% say Biden’s handling of the crisis makes them more likely to vote Democratic, but 43% say it makes them more likely to vote Republican.

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
VIRGINIA: Monmouth, Aug. 24-29; Trafalgar (R), Aug. 26-29
NEW HAMPSHIRE: St. Anselm, Aug. 24-26
CALIFORNIA: Trafalgar (R), Aug. 26-29; SurveyUSA/KABC, Aug. 26-28

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, usually at least once a week. When we get closer to the next round of elections, we will resume daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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