LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Vaccinations – NYC Ranked-Choice Voting – Domestic Terrorism – Favorability Ratings

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, February 4, 2021

BIDEN JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 55%
Down 1 from Monday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 49% (Quinnipiac) to 61% (The Hill). Without these extremes it would be 54%…. Biden’s disapproval rating averages 38% today (+2 from Monday).

• Quinnipiac and Rasmussen numbers are noteworthy: In the past, Quinnipiac’s polls have often showed Democrats doing better than other polling and Rasmussen’s polls have often showed Democrats doing worse than other polling. But today, Quinnipiac has Biden’s approval rating lower than Rasmussen (49% vs. 51%).
• In the 2020 election: Quinnipiac’s final poll had Biden ahead of Trump by 11 points and Rasmussen had Biden ahead by 1 point. In the election, Biden won the national popular vote by 4.4 points.
• The three final polls that came closest in 2020 to Biden’s percentage margin over Trump were: The Hill/HarrisX and IBD/TIPP polls had Biden ahead by 4 points; and the Emerson College poll, which had Biden leading by 5 points. 

Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, which is usually at least twice a week. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Among voters nationwide

Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people? 
 
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Marjorie Taylor Greene: 17%/43%
Liz Cheney: 30%/40%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 39%/44%
 
RON’S COMMENT: Among all voters, Greene’s negative rating is much higher than her positive rating, but she’s net positive among Republicans…. Though AOC has a slightly higher negative rating among all voters than does Greene (44% vs. 43%), her positive rating is more than twice as large as Greene’s (39% vs. 17%) among all voters…. AOCdoes well among fellow partisans: she’s 71% favorable/10% unfavorable among Democrats…. Greene does much better than Cheney among fellow Republicans:

• Greene is 25% favorable/21% unfavorable among Republicans.
• Cheney is 19% favorable/49% unfavorable among Republicans.

VACCINATIONS
Among adults nationwide

When a coronavirus vaccine becomes available to you, will you get vaccinated? 
 
Yes: 46% + 7% already vaccinated = 53%
No: 23%
Not sure: 24%
 
RON’S COMMENT: Republicans are much less likely to say they will get vaccinated than Democrats…. 36% of Republicans say they will get vaccinated while another 6% say they’ve already been vaccinated…. 63% of Democrats say they will get vaccinated while another 7% say they’ve already been vaccinated.
 
Do you believe there will be enough doses to vaccinate everyone in the U.S. who needs it? 
 
Yes: 36%
No: 34%
Not sure: 31%

RON’S COMMENT: A little more than a third of Americans think there will be enough doses to vaccinate everyone in the U.S. who needs it. That’s a very low vote of confidence in the national vaccination effort.
 
Do you think the distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine has been… 
 
Too slow: 51%
About right: 21%
Too fast: 11%
Not sure: 17%
 
RON’S COMMENT: A majority of Americans think vaccine distribution has been too slow. That includes 67% of Democrats, 41% of Republicans and 51% of independents.

DOMESTIC TERRORISM
Among voters nationwide

Do you believe that domestic terrorism poses a threat to the U.S.? 
 
An immediate and serious threat to the U.S.: 36%
A somewhat serious threat to the U.S.: 26%
A minor threat to the U.S.: 20% 
No threat to the U.S.: 10%
Not sure: 8%
 
RON’S COMMENT: 62% of voters say domestic terrorism poses a serious or a somewhat serious threat to the U.S.––and, 84% of Democrats, 44% of Republicans and 57% of independents agree.

RANKED-CHOICE VOTING IN NEW YORK CITY

EXCERPTS FROM AN ARTICLE IN CITY & STATE NEW YORK
BY  REBECCA C. LEWIS

• New York City voters are in for a big change come the next election cycle – it’s the first time the city will implement ranked-choice voting for municipal primaries and special elections…. Here’s what you need to know.
• Ranked-choice, or instant-runoff voting, allows voters to choose multiple candidates and rank them by order of preference. In New York City, primary and special-election voters will have the choice to rank up to five.
• So let’s say you like Candidate C the best, but you also like Candidate A and to a lesser extent Candidate B. You can rank Candidate C as your first choice, Candidate A as your second and Candidate B as your third. You don’t have to rank all five – in fact, you can just choose one candidate. But the option is there for you to voice your support for multiple candidates. For the voter, that’s basically all they have to think about when going to the ballot box – which candidates to choose and how to rank them.
• Once the polls close, if a candidate wins a majority of first-choice votes, that person wins outright. If no one has a majority of first-choice votes, after the first round, the person with the lowest number of first-choice votes is eliminated. That candidate’s votes are redistributed to the second-choice candidate on the ballots.
• The process is repeated for each round – the person with the lowest number of votes gets eliminated and their votes get redistributed to other candidates that have been ranked on the ballot – until only two candidates are left. The person with the most votes then is the winner. Except in rare cases, the winner will have a majority.
• Sometimes, a candidate will achieve a majority before there are only two left, but counting still continues. Although this person has already technically already won, completing the rounds of vote counting ensures that the most number of people will have their votes count in the final round.
• Starting in 2021, all citywide, borough president and City Council primaries will use ranked-choice voting, as well as special elections for any of those positions. It won’t be used during the general election or for any state, statewide or federal races. So ranked-choice won’t be used to elect state senators or Assembly members, Congress members, U.S. senators, governors and other statewide officials. It also won’t be used in district attorney races in the city, which are technically not municipal elections. 
• FOR ENTIRE ARTICLE: CLICK HERE

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
VACCINATIONS, DOMESTIC TERRORISM, FAVORABILITY RATINGS: The Economist/YouGov, Jan. 31-Feb. 3
 
Subscription note: If you ever stop receiving Lunchtime Politics, check your spam or junk folders. Sometimes, for mysterious reasons, the newsletter may re-route to there. Please know that we will never take you off our subscriber list unless you ask us to do so. 
  
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes when important new polling data is available, which is usually at least twice a week. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

Follow here to get the latest updates on the Lunchtime Politics.