LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Current Republican Thinking – Favorability Ratings – Incited Violence, Capitol Takeover

Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, January 15, 2021

Down 1 from yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Trump’s approval rating has now dipped nearly 8 points below his vote performance in the November election (46.9% to 39%), which means he’s lost about 17% of his support since the election…. Today’s average is based on seven polls, ranging from 33% (Quinnipiac) to 46% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 39%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 58% today (+1 since yesterday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020  at approval trend.

Among voters nationwide

% = Favorable / Unfavorable / + or –
Joe Biden: 49%/48% (+1 net positive)
Kamala Harris: 47%/47% (0)
Mitt Romney: 40%/46% (-6 net negative)
Democratic Party: 45%/51% (-6)
Mike Pence: 42%/52% (-10)
Chuck Schumer: 34%/47% (-13)
Ted Cruz: 35%/50% (-15)
Donald Trump: 41%/58% (-17)
Nancy Pelosi: 37%/57% (-20)
Josh Hawley: 19%/40% (-21)
Republican Party: 32%/63% (-31)
Mitch McConnell: 21%/69% (-48)
RON’S COMMENT: Everybody on this list has a net negative favorability rating except Biden (+1) and Harris (0). Also, the Democratic Party does much better than the Republican Party….This poll was conducted before the impeachment vote…. Here are some of the party breakdowns among voters surveyed: 

  • Trump is 6% favorable/93% unfavorable among Democrats, 82% favorable/16% unfavorable among Republicans and 38% favorable/56% unfavorable among independents.
  • Biden is 90% favorable/9% unfavorable among Democrats, 11% favorable/87% unfavorable among Republicans and 41% favorable/50% unfavorable among independents.
  • Romney, the 2021 Republican presidential nominee, now has a better rating among Democrats than Republicans––among Democrats he’s 57% favorable/28% unfavorable, among Republicans he’s 25% favorable/59% unfavorable and among independents he’s 27% favorable/45% unfavorable.
  • Pence is 18% favorable/76% unfavorable among Democrats, 75% favorable/19% unfavorable among Republicans and 32% favorable/49% unfavorable among independents.
  • Cruz is 10% favorable/74% unfavorable among Democrats, 61% favorable/20% unfavorable among Republicans and 30% favorable/43% unfavorable among independents.

Among voters nationwide

Did President Trump urge his supporters to engage in violence? 
Yes: 46%
No: 39%
Not sure: 15%
RON’S COMMENT: 11% of Republicans, 38% of independents and 81% of Democrats say Trump urged supporters to engage in violence.

Among voters nationwide

How much responsibility does President Trump have for the takeover of the Capitol? 
A lot/some: 55%
A little: 10%
None: 28%
RON’S COMMENT: 55% of voters nationwide believe Trump has “a lot” or “some” responsibility for the Capitol takeover last week; 25% of Republicans, 48% of independents and 87% of Democrats agree.

Here’s an interesting window into current Republican thinking: 

  • 11% of Republicans think Trump incited violence 
  • 13% of Republicans disapprove of Trump’s overall job performance
  • 16% of Republicans give Trump an unfavorable personal rating 
  • 16% of Republicans say they “strongly disapprove” of Trump’s handling of the post-election period
  • 25% of Republicans say Trump has “a lot” or “some” responsibility for the Capitol takeover
  • 41% of Republicans say they “strongly” or “somewhat” disapprove of Trump’s handling of the post-election/transition period

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
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