LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Georgia Senate Poll Update

Your Daily Polling Update for Saturday, December 5, 2020

Down 1 from Thursday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 37% (Reuters) to 50% (The Hill). Without these extremes it would be 45%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Thursday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020  at approval trend.

Among voters statewide

GEORGIA (Special Election)

(Trafalgar-R) Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) over Raphael Warnock (D): +5 (50-45)
(SurveyUSA) Raphael Warnock (D) over Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R): +7 (52-45)
(RMG) Raphael Warnock (D) over Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R): +2 (48-46)
POLL AVERAGE: Warnock +1.3
GEORGIA (Regular Election)

(Trafalgar-R) Jon Ossoff (D) over Sen. David Perdue (R): +1 (48-47)
(SurveyUSA) Jon Ossoff (D) over Sen. David Perdue (R): +2 (50-48)
(RMG) Jon Ossoff (D) over Sen. David Perdue (R): +1 (48-47)
POLL AVERAGE: Ossoff +1.3
COMMENT: The three most recent polls show Democrats Ossoff and Warnock with slight leads…. The undecided vote is low, which makes these races largely turnout efforts…. The SurveyUSA poll (which has Warnock ahead by 7 points and Ossoff ahead by 2 points) reports the following comparisons between the two contests: 

  • White voters give Perdue a 43-point lead and give Loeffler a 37-point lead. 
  • Black voters give Ossoff an 87-point advantage and give Warnock (who is black) an 83-point advantage.
  • Perdue holds 96% of the GOP base, Loeffler holds 92%. 
  • Ossoff holds 94% of the Democratic base, Warnock holds 97%. 
  • Independents split in both contests. 
  • Moderates break 3:2 for Ossoff and 2:1 for Warnock. 
  • Men give Perdue a 10-point edge; men give Loeffler a 9-point edge. 
  • Women give Ossoff an 11-point advantage; women give Warnock a 19-point advantage. 
  • Voters younger than age 50 break 5:4 Democrat in both contests. 
  • But voters age 50+ like Perdue, while voters age 50+ are less convinced about Loeffler, where the contest is effectively tied. 
  • Of Perdue runoff voters, 90% stay with Loeffler, 10% are vulnerable. 
  • Of Ossoff runoff voters, 97% vote for Warnock, just 3% are vulnerable. 
  • Of those who voted for Trump in the November general election, 97% vote for Perdue, 94% vote for Loeffler.
  • Voters with a 4-year college degree are split in both contests.
  • But voters with a high-school education give Perdue more backing than they give Loeffler.  
  • Greater Atlanta votes the same way in both contests: a 4-touchdown Democratic edge.
  • Northwestern GA votes the same way in both contests: a 2-touchdown GOP edge. 
  • The contest is in play in Southern and Coastal GA, where Perdue leads by 2 touchdowns but Loeffler hangs on by a field goal. 
  • Rural GA backs Perdue by 39 points. Rural GA backs Loeffler by 26 points.
  • Suburban women back Ossoff by 23 points and back Warnock by 30 points. 

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Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
GEORGIA: Trafalgar-R, Dec. 1-3; Survey/USA, Nov. 27-30; RMG, Nov. 19-24

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