LUNCHTIME POLITICS: Presidential Poll Averages, National and Key States

Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, November 2, 2020

TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%
Same as Friday

RON’S COMMENT: The day before Election Day and President Trump’s average approval rating is 46%––the exact same percentage of the popular vote he received in 2016––and may receive again?…. Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 42% (Economist) to 52% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would be 45%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as Friday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.

OUR UPCOMING SCHEDULE:
• WE WILL PUBLISH A SECOND “LATE LUNCH” EDITION THIS AFTERNOON ON SENATE RACES.
• WE WILL ALSO UPDATE ALL PRESIDENTIAL AND SENATE RACES TOMORROW.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 
Among general election voters

AVERAGES: NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE 
(Based on the last ten polls; includes polls that were reported today for the first time)
  
(Economist) Biden +11 (54-43)
(USC) Biden +11 (54-43)
(WSJ/NBC) Biden +10 (52-42)
(YouGov) Biden +10 (53-43)
(Fox News )Biden +8 (52-44)
(Morning Consult) Biden +8 (52-44)
(Emerson) Biden +5 (50-45)
(The Hill) Biden +4 (49-45)
(IBD/TIPP) Biden +3 (49-46)
(Rasmussen) Biden +1 (48-47)
Average of last ten polls: Biden +7.1
 
RON’S COMMENT: Biden’s average national popular vote is 51.3% and Trump’s average national popular vote is 44.2%. That leaves 4.5% undecided or for third-party candidates…. If you assume there is a “hidden” Trump vote of an extra point or two, that would put him at or near his 2016 vote percentage of 46%, which is also right where his average job approval rating is today.
 
AVERAGES: IN THE STATES 
(Based on the last three to five polls in each state, depending upon interviewing dates; includes polls that were reported today for the first time)
 
States Trump carried in 2016
State (Electoral Votes): Candidate Leading (High, Low Poll Margins)

• WISCONSIN (10): Biden +6.6 (High +10, Low +1)
• MICHIGAN( 16): Biden +4.8 (High +10, Low -2)
• PENNSYLVANIA (20): Biden +4.2 (High +7, Low -2) 
• MAINE CD2 (1): Biden +3.7 (High +4, Low +3)
• FLORIDA (29): Biden +2 (High +6, Low -1)
• ARIZONA (11): Biden +1 (High +6, Low -4)
• OHIO (18): Biden +0.3 (High +5, Low -5)
• GEORGIA (16): Biden +0.4 (High +4, Low -2)
• NORTH CAROLINA (15): Trump +1.2 (High +4, Low -1)
• TEXAS (38): Trump +1.7 (High +4, Low Even)
• IOWA (6): Trump +3.3 (High +7, Low +1)

States Clinton carried in 2016
State (Electoral Votes): Candidate Leading (High, Low Poll Margins)

• MAINE CD1 (1): Biden +22.7 (High +32, Low +17)
• MAINE (2): Biden +11.3 (High +13, Low +10)
• NEW HAMPSHIRE (4): Biden +8.7 (High +10, Low +8)
• MINNESOTA (10): Biden +4.3 (High +5, Low +3)
• NEVADA (6): Biden +3.6 (High +6, Low +2)

RON’S COMMENT: Observations and assumptions: 

• Biden leads the Triple Crown states, which is enough to give him a majority of the electoral votes (278) assuming Clinton’s 2016 states hold, as they appear to be. Biden also leads all the states that Clinton carried in 2016 that have been watched this time. The closest is Nevada (+3.6) and Minnesota next at +4.3.
• If Biden wins other places where he has an average polling lead––however tiny that polling lead may be––he could win as many as 358 electoral votes.
• If Biden wins the Triple Crown states plus Maine CD2 and Arizona, he’s at 290, giving him some cushion. 

For Trump to win:  

• Trump can afford to lose Michigan and Wisconsin if he holds Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, Georgia, Arizona, Iowa and North Carolina. 
• If Trump loses Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin––but holds Ohio, Florida, Georgia, Arizona, Iowa, North Carolina and Maine CD2––he would then need to carry Minnesota to get 270 electoral votes, the minimum needed to win. 
• Keep in mind that many of the key states that swung to Trump in 2016 did so in the last two to three days. The major difference, however, is that more early votes were cast this time, making a late surge potentially less decisive. Also, Biden’s leads tend to be bigger than Clinton’s in some key states.

SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
Pollster indicated along with results; most interviewing done within the last week unless otherwise noted.
 
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes daily, Monday thru Friday, between now and the Nov. 3 election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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