Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, October 30, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on seven polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters, Economist) to 52% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would be 46%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (same as yesterday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
“The best advice: Don’t take any one poll to heart. Don’t assume any one poll is always right or wrong. Look at polls in context, look for trends. That’s why averaging polls is useful.”
For Ron Faucheux’s full article on reading polls Click here
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
Nationwide Popular Vote
(Opinium) Biden +14 (55-41)
(UCS) Biden +12 (55-41)
(Long Island U.) Biden +11 (47-36)
(IBD/TIPP) Biden +6 (51-45)
(Swayable) Biden +5 (51-46)
(The Hill) Biden +4 (49-45)
(Rasmussen) Biden +3 (49-46)
Average of today’s polls: Biden +7.9
RON’S COMMENT: A few polls we don’t often see keep Biden’s margin within his 7- to 9-point window, although it’s down from yesterday’s 8.6-point average.
In the States
States Trump carried in 2016
FLORIDA (Monmouth): Biden +6
FLORIDA (Quinnipiac): Biden +3
FLORIDA (Trafalgar-R): Trump +3
PENNSYLVANIA (Quinnipiac): Biden +7
PENNSYLVANIA (Swayable): Biden +6
MICHIGAN (Kiaer): Biden +13
MICHIGAN (Trafalgar-R): Trump +2
OHIO (Quinnipiac): Biden +5
OHIO (Kiaer): Trump +11
NORTH CAROLINA (CardinalGPS): Trump +2
NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen): Trump +1
NORTH CAROLINA (Swayable): Biden +2
WISCONSIN (Swayable): Biden +9
IOWA (Quinnipiac): Trump +1
TEXAS (UMass Lowell): Trump +1
ALABAMA (Auburn U.): Trump +19
States Clinton carried in 2016
CONNECTICUT(Sacred Heart U.): Biden +25
NEW JERSEY(Rutgers): Biden +24
NEW HAMPSHIRE (UMass Lowell): Biden +10
NEW HAMPSHIRE (UNH): Biden +8
NEVADA (Trafalgar-R): Biden +2
RON’S COMMENT: A lot of conflicting polls today, especially in Ohio and Michigan….The Pennsylvania polls are good for Biden…. The Florida Monmouth poll gives Biden a 6-point lead among likely voters and a 5-point edge among registered voters. Quinnipiac shows a smaller margin and Trafalgar has Trump leading the Sunshine state…. North Carolina remains a 2-point race either way…. New Hampshire is looking good for Biden. It’s a state that Clinton barely won in 2016…. Notice: Blue states such as Connecticut and New Jersey are showing immense Biden leads––an indication why his national margin is bigger and steadier than his more modest swing-state margins.
Here are excerpts from Monmouth’s Florida poll report:
- “Florida’s sizable senior vote remains divided – 51% for Trump and 47% for Biden. Trump had a 2-point lead (49% to 47%) among voters aged 65 and older in September. Trump also has an edge among voters aged 50 to 64 (52% to 45%), a group that was evenly divided (48% to 48%) last month. Biden is able to offset these deficits with a strong showing among voters under 50 years old (57% to 35% for Trump, up from 53% to 38% last month).”
- “The Democrat maintains a large advantage among voters of color (68% to 23%) although his lead is smaller among Latino voters specifically (58% to 32%). These findings are virtually identical to Monmouth’s September results. According to the 2016 National Election Pool’s exit poll, Hillary Clinton won Florida’s Latino vote by 27 points (62% to 35%). Trump leads among white voters by 55% to 41%, but this is much smaller than his 32-point margin among white voters in the 2016 exit poll (64% to 32%).”
Here are excerpts from Quinnipiac’s Pennsylvania poll report:
- “Likely voters give Biden a positive favorability rating and Trump a negative one. For Biden, 51 percent have a favorable opinion of him and 43 percent have an unfavorable opinion. For Trump, 43 percent have a favorable opinion of him and 52 percent have an unfavorable opinion.
- “As the pressure builds and both campaigns circle their wagons around Pennsylvania, Joe Biden holds onto his lead as Donald Trump hopes to recreate his 2016 win there. What’s working to Biden’s advantage is his ability to stay above 50 percent support, and that voters like him better than they do Trump,” said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Mary Snow.
- “Fifty-eight percent of likely voters in Pennsylvania plan to vote in person on Election Day, while 41 percent say they have voted or will vote by mail or absentee ballot. That is in line with what voters in Pennsylvania said on October 21st, as 60 percent said they would vote in person and 40 percent said they had voted or will vote by mail or absentee ballot.”
SENATE ELECTIONS
Among voters in each state
IOWA (Quinnipiac)
Sen. Joni Ernst (R) over Theresa Greenfield (D): +2 (48-46)
RON’S COMMENT: Yesterday, Greenfield was ahead, now Ernst.
GEORGIA Special Election Open Primary
(PPP-D)
Raphael Warnock (D): 46%
Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R): 27%
Doug Collins (R): 19%
Matt Lieberman (D): 2%
RON’S COMMENT: All polls are showing Democrat Warnock running first. But few have him this far ahead. Incumbent Loeffler leads fellow Republican Collins for second place and a runoff berth.
GEORGIA Regular Election
(PPP-D) Jon Ossoff (D) over Sen. David Perdue (R): +3 (47-44)
COMMENT: Ossoff appears to have strengthened in recent days, but it’s still a tight race.
TEXAS (UMass Lowell)
Sen. John Cornyn (R) over MJ Hegar (D): +5 (49-44)
COMMENT: This is Cornyn’s smallest lead we’ve seen in a while. He’s usually up 7 to 9 points.
ALABAMA (Auburn U.)
Tommy Tuberville (R) over Sen. Doug Jones (D): +11 (54-43)
COMMENT: This is the best shot for Republicans to pick up a Senate seat.
GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS
Among voters in each state
NORTH CAROLINA
(UMass Lowell) Gov. Roy Cooper (D) over Dan Forest (R): +12 (54-42)
(NYT) Gov. Roy Cooper (D) over Dan Forest (R): +9 (51-42)
COMMENT: Democrat Cooper holds a steady lead in a state with explosive partisan races for Senate and president.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
(UMass Lowell) Gov. Chris Sununu (R) over Feites (D): +23 (59-36)
(UNH) Gov. Chris Sununu (R) over Feites (D): +24 (60-36)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Sununu continues to have wide leads.
HUNTER AND JOE BIDEN
Among voters nationwide who watched the final presidential debate
Do you think Joe Biden benefitted from Hunter Biden’s dealings with Ukraine and China?
Yes: 39%
No: 49%
Undecided: 12%
COMMENT: More voters who watched the second and final presidential debate say they don’t believe Biden benefitted from his son’s business dealings than those who do.
TAKING A VACCINE
Among voters nationwide
When a federally approved vaccine is available, will you…
Take it as soon as you can: 26%
Wait awhile until others have taken it: 47%
Not take the vaccine: 20%
Undecided: 7%
COUNTRY’S DIVISIONS
Among voters nationwide
When you think about the divisions in our country, do you think they are deeper than they were in the past, less deep, or about the same?
Deeper: 69%
Less deep: 3%
About the same: 22%
Undecided: 4%
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL: Opinium, Oct. 26-29; USC, Oct. 16-29; Long Island U., Oct. 26-27; IBD/TIPP, Oct. 25-29; Swayable, Oct. 23-26; The Hill, Oct. 25-28; Rasmussen, Oct. 27-29
HUNTER BIDEN, VACCINE, COUNTRY’S DIVISIONS: USA Today/Suffolk, Oct. 23–27
STATE POLLS: Pollsters indicated along with results; most interviewing done within the last week, or otherwise noted.
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