LUNCHTIME POLITICS: National Polls Vary – Tina Smith Leads in Minnesota, North Carolina Senate Close

Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, October 28, 2020

Same as yesterday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 42% (CNBC, Economist) to 52% (Rasmussen). The fourth poll has it at 45%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (-1 from yesterday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020  at approval trend.

Among general election voters

Nationwide Popular Vote
(USC) Biden +12 (54-42)
(Economist) Biden +11 (54-43)
(Crooked Media) Biden +8 (51-43)
(IBD/TIPP) Biden +5 (50-45-3)
(Emerson) Biden +5 (50-45)
(Rasmussen) Trump +1 (48-47)
Average of today’s polls: Biden +7
RON’S COMMENT: National polls are all over the place, going from Biden +12 to Trump +1…. Here are some interesting excerpts from the Crooked Media/Change Research (D) poll report: 

  • Biden leads 92-3 among those who voted for Clinton in 2016
  • Trump leads 92-5 among those who voted for him in 2016
  • Biden leads 44-31 among those who voted third-party in 2016
  • Biden leads 57-32 among those who did not vote in 2016
  • There’s a 19-point gender gap: Biden leads by 17 among women, while Trump is up 2 among men.
  • Biden leads among all age groups except 50-64-year-olds, who are virtually tied, with Trump at 49, Biden 48.
  • Trump is up 95-3 among Republicans who list Fox News as a top source, and 81-12 among Republicans who don’t.
  • Biden leads 61-34 with urban voters, 56-38 among those in the suburbs, and trails 37-59 among rural voters. Compared with self-reported 2016 votes, Biden has gained 6 points compared to Hillary Clinton’s margin with urban voters, 3 points among those in the suburbs, and 6 points among rural voters.

In the States
States Trump carried in 2016
MICHIGAN (Reuters): Biden +9
MICHIGAN (Detroit News): Biden +7
MICHIGAN (WaPo/ABC): Biden +7
NORTH CAROLINA (Ipsos): Biden +1
NORTH CAROLINA (Reuters): Biden +1
NORTH CAROLINA (Harper-R): Biden +1
WISCONSIN (WaPo/ABC): Biden +17
FLORIDA (Susquehanna): Trump +4
IOWA (WHO-TV): Biden +4
ARIZONA (OH Pred.): Biden +3 
KANSAS (Ft. Hayes U.): Trump +14
States Clinton carried in 2016
MINNESOTA (Gravis): Biden +14
VIRGINIA (CNU): Biden +12
MAINE (Colby): Biden +13
NEVADA (NYT): Biden +6
RON’S COMMENT: Biden keeps his hold on Michigan and Wisconsin, and leads in Iowa and Arizona. He’s also showing strength in Minnesota and to a lesser extent in Nevada, two states Republicans have aimed at turning red…. Florida numbers keep bouncing around…. Local political operatives find the wide 17-point Biden lead in Wisconsin hard to believe…. North Carolina continues to be close; Trump is fighting to find an edge…. Republicans have waved bye-bye to Virginia a long time ago.

Among voters in each state

(Gravis) Sen. Tina Smith (D) over Jason Lewis (R): +14 (53-39)
(Civiqs) Sen. Tina Smith (D) over Jason Lewis (R): +11 (54-43)
RON’S COMMENT: Last week, a KSTP poll showed this race tightening to a 1-point lead for Smith. But these two polls show Smith with substantial leads. The Gravis poll is the most recent (Oct. 24-26). The Civiqs poll was taken Oct. 17-20 and the KSTP poll was taken Oct. 16-20. Handicappers rate the race safe or likely Democratic.
Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) over Mike Espy (D): +8 (52-44)
RON’S COMMENT: Though GOP incumbent Hyde-Smith is widely seen as the clear favorite, Democrats have viewed this race as a potential sleeper. Wishful thinking or not, Dems say a giant turnout could put Espy over the top. Handicappers aren’t biting; they rate the race safe or likely Republican.
Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +1 (48-47)
COMMENT: Democrat Cal Cunningham was running first until a recent sexting scandal nearly brought him down. Though the scandal damaged his credibility, it didn’t sink his candidacy, at least not so far. Cunningham’s candidacy is still afloat and could sail to victory. Losing this seat would be a gut-punch to Democrats.
(WaPo/ABC) Sen. Gary Peters (D) over John James (R): +6 (52-46)
(Detroit News) Sen. Gary Peters (D) over John James (R): +9 (48-39)
RON’S COMMENT: Democrat Peters continues to run first. He has an average lead of 7.3 points based on the last four polls.
MAINE (Colby College)
Sara Gideon (D) over Sen. Susan Collins (R): +4 (47-43)
COMMENT: Democrat Gideon also has an average lead of 4 points based on the last four polls.

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL: Economist, Oct. 25-27; Crooked Media, Oct. 23-24; IBD/TIPP, Oct. 23-27; Emerson, Oct. 25-26; Rasmussen, Oct. 26-27; USC, Oct. 14-27
STATE POLLS: Pollsters indicated along with results; most interviewing done within the last week, or otherwise noted. 

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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes daily, Monday thru Friday, between now and the Nov. 3 election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

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