Betting Markets Give Trump Slightly Improved Chances After Debate

President Donald Trump’s probability of getting re-elected gained slightly on online betting markets following Thursday’s final presidential debate, Reuters writes.

Bettors on British exchange Smarkets give Democratic challenger Joe Biden a 66% chance of winning the Nov. 3 election, down from 68% before the debate. Trump’s chances improved to 34% from 32%.

Betfair also said Trump’s odds improved on the same level following the debate, adding that punters spent over nine million pounds ($12 million) betting on the election over the last 24 hours.

The odds have narrowed since mid-October, but betting trends on gambling websites still predict a win for Biden. The former vice president has a substantial lead in national opinion polls, although the contest is closer in battleground states likely to decide the race.

The majority of big-money political betting occurs outside America as betting on politics is illegal in the United States.

Meanwhile,  global stocks barely budged on Friday as investors tightened positions with less than two weeks to go before the U.S. presidential election and awaited a breakthrough in stimulus talks in Washington.

U.S. S&P 500 futures had dipped slightly after the debate but were mostly flat by late Asian trade. The underlying index had gained about 0.5% in the previous day on hopes that the U.S. Congress and the White House could soon strike a deal on another round of COVID-19 stimulus.

European stocks are expected to claw back some of this week’s losses, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.4% before opening of cash trading.

Shares in Asia hardly moved, with MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan flat while Japan’s Nikkei ticked up 0.2%.

The CSI300 index of mainland China also edged up 0.2%.

At Thursday’s debate, Biden renewed his criticism of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic as Trump levelled unfounded corruption accusations at Biden and his family.

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