Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, October 20, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on seven polls, ranging from 42% (Economist) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 44%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (-1 from yesterday…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
Nationwide Popular Vote
(NYT) Biden +9 (50-41-2)
(JTN/RMG) Biden +8 (51-43-2-1)
(IBD/TIPP) Biden +2 (48-46-3-1)
Average of today’s polls: Biden +6.3
Average of last five polls: Biden +8.2
RON’S COMMENT: Poll internals––
- The NYT/Siena poll shows Trump winning Whites 50-44. Biden is winning Blacks 90-4 and Hispanics 50-30. Biden draws 93% from fellow Democrats and Trump draws 91% from fellow Republicans.
- This JTN/RMG poll shows no movement over the past two weeks. Biden maintains an 8-point lead.
- IBD/TIPP has been finding a smaller Biden margin than most other surveys.
In the States
States Trump carried in 2016
WISCONSIN (Reuters): Biden +8
WISCONSIN (Trafalgar-R): Biden +2
PENNSYLVANIA (Reuters): Biden +4
FLORIDA (UNF): Biden +1
NORTH CAROLINA (WaPo/ABC): Biden +1
GEORGIA (Emerson): Trump +1
KENTUCKY (Mason-Dixon):Trump +17
States Clinton carried in 2016
COLORADO (U. of Col.): Biden +9
RON’S COMMENT: This is the 26th poll in a row showing Biden leading his birth state of Pennsylvania––although a 4-point margin is still too close for comfort…. This is the 24th poll in a row with Biden on top in Wisconsin, but with the two latest polls showing a wide 2% vs. 8% gap…. This Georgia poll has Trump leading, but just barely. The outcome of this state will depend upon turnout. BTW, this poll shows 5% of the vote going to third-party candidates––if that vote declines, as is likely, where will it go?
SENATE ELECTIONS
Among voters in each state
MONTANA (Political IQ)
Sen. Steve Daines (D) over Steve Bullock (R): +2 (49-47)
COMMENT: Local observers give the edge to GOP incumbent Daines, although they say it’s close enough that a big Democratic turnout could still elect Bullock. Daines won last time by 18 points.
NORTH CAROLINA (WaPo/ABC)
Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +2 (49-47)
COMMENT: Despite the texting scandal, Democrat Cunningham holds on to a lead, albeit a narrow one.
GEORGIA Special Election Open Primary (Emerson)
Raphael Warnock (D): 27%
Doug Collins (R): 27%
Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R): 20%
Matt Lieberman (D): 12%
RON’S COMMENT: After a run of polls showing appointed-incumbent Loeffler running first or second, this survey has her third with Warnock and Collins battling it out for first place. This could get interesting.
GEORGIA Regular Election (Emerson)
Sen. David Perdue (R) over Jon Ossoff (D): +1 (46-45-3)
COMMENT: Most polls have been showing GOP incumbent Purdue ahead, although his margins have been bouncing around. This poll has it very close.
BETTER OFF NOW?
Among voters nationwide
You: Are you better off now than you were four years ago?
Economist poll:
Better off now: 44%
Better off four years ago: 39%
Not sure: 16%
NYT poll:
Better off now: 49%
Better off four years ago: 32%
Not sure/same: 19%
RON’S COMMENT: According to the Economist poll, 24% of Biden’s voters and 69% of Trump’s voters say they’re better off now than they were four years ago.
Country: Is the country better off now than it was four years ago?
Economist poll:
Better off now: 29%
Better off four years ago: 57%
Not sure: 13%
NYT poll:
Better off now: 39%
Better off four years ago: 55%
Not sure/same: 7%
RON’S COMMENT: According to the Economist poll, 5% of Biden’s voters and 65% of Trump’s voters say the country is better off now than it was four years ago.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Future First Lady Elizabeth Ann Bloomer Warren married which future Republican president?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL: New York Times/Siena, Oct. 15-18; IBD/TIPP, Oct. 15-18; JTN/RMG, Oct. 15-17
STATE POLLS: Pollsters indicated along with results; most interviewing done within the last week, or otherwise noted.
BETTER OFF NOW? The Economist/YouGov, Oct.11-13; New York Times/Siena, Oct. 15-18
VACCINATION: The Economist/YouGov, Oct.11-13
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes daily, Monday thru Friday, between now and the Nov. 3 election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
TRIVIA ANSWER
Gerald Ford. He and Elizabeth Ann Bloomer Warren (now known as Betty Ford) were married at Grace Episcopal Church in Grand Rapids, Michigan, on October 15, 1948.
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