Your Daily Polling Update for Monday, October 19, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (Economist) to 48% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would be 43%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Friday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
Sponsored Message
BELTWAY OPINION LEADER SURVEYS BY CERTUS INSIGHTS
Beltway opinion leader surveys can provide valuable insights for any organization. They establish critical benchmarks and guide effective messaging, issue assessments, tactical targeting and advocacy activation. See how Certus Insights approaches this specialized research and what it can do for your association, nonprofit or business: http://bit.ly/2KkjDke
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
Nationwide Popular Vote
(IBD/TIPP) Biden +6 (50-44-2-1)
Average of last three 4-way polls: Biden +8.7
RON’S COMMENT: Surprisingly few polls today.
In the States
States Trump carried in 2016
WISCONSIN (CBS): Biden +5
ARIZONA (CBS): Biden +3
MISSOURI (Scout): Trump +6
RON’S COMMENT: Internal numbers from key states of Wisconsin and Arizona––
Wisconsin poll:
- 24% of Wisconsin voters say they have already voted, and that includes 39% of Democrats and 15% of Republicans.
- Trump wins on the economy 47-46 and Biden wins on the coronavirus 53-34.
- 54% say they like Biden personally and 32% say they like Trump personally.
- 47% say Biden is most concerned about the middle class, 35% say the wealthy and elite and 18% say the poor.
- 35% say Trump is most concerned about the middle class, 60% say the wealthy and elite and 5% say the poor.
Arizona poll:
- 26% of all Arizona voters say they‘ve already voted, and that includes 39% of Democrats and 15% of Republicans.
- Trump wins on the economy 47-44 and Biden wins on the coronavirus 50-39.
- 50% say they like Biden personally and 34% say they like Trump personally.
- 43% say Biden is most concerned about the middle class, 42% say the wealthy and elite and 15% say the poor.
- 34% say Trump is most concerned about the middle class, 58% say the wealthy and elite and 8% say the poor.
SENATE ELECTIONS
Among voters in each state
ARIZONA (CBS)
Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +11 (52-41)
RON’S COMMENT: Handicappers rate the contest lean or tilt Democratic.
WHITMER KIDNAPPING THREAT
Among voters nationwide
[The] Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) arrested 6 people in Michigan, charging them with conspiring to kidnap Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Seven others tied to a related paramilitary group were also arrested and charged with state terrorism threats against law enforcement officers. Do you believe that these people arrested by the FBI…
Presented a real threat to Gov. Whitmer’s safety: 64%
Did not present a real threat to Gov. Whitmer’s safety: 11%
Not sure: 25%
RON’S COMMENT: 78% of Democrats, 58% of independents and 51% of Republicans say the kidnap threat presented a real threat to Gov. Whitmer’s safety.
TRUTHFULNESS: BY INFORMATION SOURCE
Among adults nationwide
How confident are you that the content or information you receive from each of the following sources is true…?
Something I saw with my own eyes: 92%
Government records (birth/death/marriage; property, licenses, etc.): 84%
My memory: 80%
Live audio/video as it happens: 76%
Statements from researchers/academics: 76%
Eyewitness statements: 57%
My religious leaders: 56%
Communications or advertising from major companies: 40%
Statements from government officials: 36%
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENTIAL: IBD/TIPP, Oct. 14-18
STATE POLLS: Pollsters indicated along with results; most interviewing done within the last week, or otherwise noted.
TRUTHFULNESS: BY INFORMATION SOURCE: Ipsos, Aug. 25-26
WHITMER: The Economist/YouGov, Oct. 11-13
Subscription note: If you ever stop receiving Lunchtime Politics, check your spam or junk folders. Sometimes, for mysterious reasons, the newsletter may re-route to there. Please know that we will never take you off our subscriber list unless you ask us to do so.
Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes daily, Monday thru Friday, between now and the Nov. 3 election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
Follow here to get the latest updates on the Lunchtime Politics.
Be the first to comment