Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, October 9, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Despite the turmoil of the last week and a half, President Trump’s job rating has hardly budged…. Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters) to 47% (Fox News). Without these extremes it would still be 45%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
In the States
States Trump carried in 2016
MICHIGAN (Emerson): Biden +10
FLORIDA (Fox35): Trump +3
TEXAS (Rasmussen): Trump +7
TEXAS (UT): Trump +5
GEORGIA (Atlanta J-C): Trump +2
ARIZONA (Trafalgar-R): Trump +4
States Clinton carried in 2016
NEW HAMPSHIRE (St. Anselm):Biden +12
RON’S COMMENT: Key findings:
- This new Michigan poll looks good for Biden, strengthening his grasp on the Triple Crown states.
- The Florida poll is good for Trump and conflicts with the recent Quinnipiac poll that had Biden ahead by 11 points. The average of the last five polls gives Biden a 3.7-point lead in the Sunshine state.
- The Georgia poll shows the state is competitive, with Trump slightly ahead. Biden wins Blacks in Georgia 87-4 and Trump wins Whites 69-27.
- Texas was always a reach for Biden, and these polls give Trump the lead.
- Some political observers find the Trafalgar (R) poll in Arizona hard to believe, it shows Trump doing better in the statethan any other poll released since June.
VP DEBATE
Among voters
Debate performance:
- Among all voters, 51% said Kamala Harris performed best in the debate
- Among all voters, 40% said Mike Pence performed best in the debate
RON’S COMMENT: Other findings––
- Of all voters, 53% say Kamala Harris could handle the presidency (up from 50% pre-debate).
- Of all voters, 61% say Mike Pence could handle the presidency (up from 57% pre-debate).
- 38% of all voters and 46% of debate viewers said they had seen, read or heard “a lot” about a fly landing on Pence’s head. That’s much more than those who said they had seen, read or heard “a lot” about Harris refusing to say whether she and Biden would support packing the Supreme Court or about Pence refusing to say whether he’d want his home state of Indiana to ban abortion if Roe vs. Wade was overturned.
SENATE ELECTIONS
Among voters in each state
GEORGIA Special Election Open Primary (Atlanta Jour. Const.)
Raphael Warnock (D): 28%
Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R): 22%
Doug Collins (R): 21%
Ed Tarver (D): 4%
Matt Lieberman (D): 3%
RON’S COMMENT: Democrat Warnock leads this open primary special election, with appointed incumbent Loeffler second and Collins very close behind…. Among Whites, it’s Loeffler 32%, Collins 30% and Warnock 15%…. Among Blacks, it’s Warnock 55%, Collins 4% and Loeffler 1%…. Most local handicappers believe either of the two Republicans, Loeffler or Collins, would beat Democrat Warnock in the runoff.
GEORGIA Regular Election
Sen. David Perdue (R) over Jon Ossoff (D): +8 (49-41)
COMMENT: This poll gives GOP incumbent Perdue his biggest lead all year. He beats Democrat Ossoff 70-25 among Whites and Ossoff wins Blacks 76-7. Handicappers rate the race either a tossup or tilt/lean Republican.
TEXAS
(UT) Sen. John Cornyn (R) over MJ Hegar (D): +8 (50-42)
(Rasmussen) Sen. John Cornyn (R) over MJ Hegar (D): +9 (48-39)
COMMENT: Advantage Cornyn. Handicappers rate the race likely or lean Republican.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (St. Anselm)
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) over Corky Messner (R): +14 (53-39)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Shaheen remains in good shape. Handicappers rate the contest safe or likely Democratic.
CANDIDATES AND THE VIRUS
Among voters nationwide
Are you confident in Donald Trump’s ability to deal with the COVID-19 outbreak, or are you uneasy about his approach?
Confident in Trump: 38%
Uneasy about Trump: 58%
RON’S COMMENT: 53% of men, 62% of women, 76% of voters 18-29 and 51% of voters 65 and older say they’re uneasy about Trump’s ability to deal with the outbreak.
Are you confident in Joe Biden’s ability to deal with the COVID-19 outbreak, or are you uneasy about his approach?
Confident in Biden: 47%
Uneasy about Biden: 42%
RON’S COMMENT: 43% of men, 41% of women, 33% of voters 18-29 and 48% of voters 65 and older say they’re uneasy about Biden’s ability to deal with the outbreak.
TRUMP’S PROFILE
Among voters nationwide
Ideology: Would you say Donald Trump is…
Liberal/very liberal: 4%
Moderate: 14%
Conservative/very conservative: 62%
Not sure: 20%
Cares: How much do you think Donald Trump cares about the needs and problems of people like you?
Cares a lot/some: 42%
Doesn’t care much/not at all: 55%
Likability: Regardless of whether you agree with him, do you like or dislike Donald Trump as a person?
Likes a lot/somewhat: 28%
Neither like nor dislike: 11%
Dislike a lot/somewhat: 57%
RON’S COMMENT: 12% of Trump’s own voters dislike him and another 19% neither like nor dislike him.
Leader: Would you say Donald Trump is a strong or a weak leader?
Strong: 49%
Weak: 50%
Honest: Do you think Donald Trump is honest and trustworthy, or not?
Honest and trustworthy: 32%
Not honest and trustworthy: 57%
Not sure: 12%
RON’S COMMENT: 25% of Trump’s own voters say either that he’s not honest and trustworthy or that they are not sure. (6% say not honest, 19% say not sure.)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
STATE POLLS: Pollsters indicated along with results; most interviewing done within the last week, or otherwise noted.
VP DEBATE: Morning Consult, Oct. 8
TRUMP’S PROFILE, CANDIDATES AND THE VIRUS: The Economist/YouGov, Oct. 4-6
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