Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, October 6, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Down 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 40% (CNN) to 46% (IBD/TIPP). Without these extremes it would still be 44%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (+1 from yesterday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
Nationwide Popular Vote
(CNN) Biden +16 (57-41)
(JTN/RMG) Biden +8 (51-43)
Today’s average: Biden +12
Average of last five polls: Biden +9.6
RON’S COMMENT: The CNN poll, which was taken after the debate and mostly after the president’s coronavirus diagnosis, shows an eye-popping lead for Biden among likely voters, twice what the other survey indicates. When a registered voter sample is used, Biden’s lead slips slightly to 15 points. The previous CNN poll from about a month ago pegged Biden’s lead at 8 points…. From the CNN poll report:
- 8% of Biden supporters and 10% of Trump supporters say they may still change their minds.
- Likely voters prefer Biden over Trump on a number of issues, including the coronavirus outbreak (59% prefer Biden, 38% Trump), healthcare (59% to 39%), racial inequality (62% to 36%), Supreme Court nominations (57% to 41%) and crime and safety (55% to 43%). The two are about even on the economy (50% say Biden, 48% Trump).
- Trump’s supporters are more likely to say crime and safety (51% extremely important among Trump supporters vs. 33% among Biden supporters) and the economy (48% among Trump supporters, 36% among Biden supporters) are top concerns in how they vote.
- Among Biden’s supporters, 66% say the coronavirus is extremely important to their vote vs. 21% among Trump backers; 63% say race relations are important vs. 16% of Trump voters; 58% consider health care extremely important vs. 25% of Trump supporters; and 51% say climate change is extremely important compared with just 5% of Trump supporters.
In the States
States Trump carried in 2016
FLORIDA (USA Today): Even
FLORIDA (UNF): Biden +6
MICHIGAN (Detroit News): Biden +9
PENNSYLVANIA (Reuters): Biden +5
WISCONSIN (Reuters): Biden +6
OHIO (Trafalgar-R): Trump +4
ARIZONA (NYT): Biden +8
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP-D): Biden +4
ALABAMA (Auburn U.): Trump +20
RON’S COMMENT: Biden continues to hold leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the Triple Crown of Trump’s victory in 2016…. Two polls in Florida––one has it even and one has Biden ahead…. Biden’s leads in Arizona and North Carolina are especially good news for his campaign. The Trafalgar (R) poll in Ohio is good for Trump.
SENATE ELECTIONS
Among voters in each state
NORTH CAROLINA (PPP-D)
Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +6 (48-42)
COMMENT: This poll was conducted right after the story broke about Cunningham’s sexting episode, which 58% of voters said they had heard about. Incumbent Tillis has tested positive for the virus. Handicappers rate the race tossup or tilt Democrat.
ALABAMA (Auburn U.)
Tommy Tuberville (D) over Sen. Doug Jones (D): +12 (54-42)
COMMENT: Handicappers rate this Senate race lean or likely Republican.
ARIZONA (NYT)
Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +11 (50-39)
RON’S COMMENT: Democrat Kelly has widened his lead. The three previous polls had him up by 6 points, on average. Handicappers rate the contest lean or tilt Democratic.
DELAWARE (U. of Delaware)
Sen. Chris Coons(D) over Lauren Witzke(R): +30 (57-27)
COMMENT: This is a good year for Democrats in Delaware. Incumbent Coons posts a big re-election lead. Handicappers rate the race safe Democratic.
U.S. HOUSE RACES
Among voters in each district
- New Jersey 2 (Monmouth): Amy Kennedy (D) over U.S. Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R): +6 (50-44)
- Oklahoma 5 (CHS): Stephanie Bice (R) over U.S. Rep. Kendra Horn (D): +4 (49-45)
- New York 24 (NYT): Dana Balter (D) over U.S. Rep. John Katko (R): +2 (42-40)
RON’S COMMENT: Three House incumbents in tough races––In New Jersey 2, Republican Van Drew is the incumbent and he’s running behind Democrat Kennedy, who is a mental health advocate and wife of former Rep. Patrick Kennedy…. In Oklahoma 5, Democrat Horn is the incumbent, and she’s running behind Republican Bice, a state senator…. In New York 24, Republican Katko is the incumbent, and he’s running slightly behind Democrat Balter.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
When was the first vice-presidential debate––and who were the two candidates?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes daily, Monday thru Friday, between now and the Nov. 3 election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
TRIVIA ANSWER
1976. Walter Mondale (D) and Bob Dole (R) were the first vice-presidential candidates to debate.
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