Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, September 15, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 45%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on seven polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters) to 51% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 45%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as yesterday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
Among general election voters
NATIONWIDE POPULAR VOTE
(JTN/RMG Rasmussen) Biden +5
(USC) Biden +10
Average of last four polls: Biden +7
RON’S COMMENT: Individual poll results bounce around, as we see today. Based on the Lunchtime Politics average of the four most recent polls, Biden’s lead holds fairly steady. This is a good example why we started using polling averages 20 years ago to sort out the ups and downs of poll variation.
IN THE STATES
Trump carried these states in 2016
FLORIDA (FAU): Even
ARIZONA (OH Predictive): Biden +10
NORTH CAROLINA (Trafalgar-R): Trump +2
NORTH CAROLINA (WRAL): Biden +2
RON’S COMMENT: Florida and North Carolina, together, represent 44 electoral votes. Trump must hold on to both states to have a chance at re-election…. Based on the last three polls:
- Biden has an average lead in Florida of 2 points
- Biden has an average lead in Arizona of 5 points
- Trump has an average lead in North Carolina of 1.3 points
Among voters statewide
(WRAL) Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +7 (47-40)
(Trafalgar-R) Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +1 (46-45)
RON’S COMMENT: Two polls paint two different pictures. The three most recent polls give Cunningham an average lead of 3.7 points. Handicappers rate the race a tossup.
CANDIDATE TRUST: HANDLING ISSUES
Among voters nationwide
Regardless of how you might vote, who do you trust to do a better job on each of the following––Joe Biden or Donald Trump?
% = Biden/Trump
- The economy: 44%/52% (Trump +8)
- Maintaining law and order: 47%/48% (Trump +1)
- Nominating the next Supreme Court justice: 51%/45% (Biden +6)
- Policing and criminal justice: 51%/44% (Biden +7)
- Healthcare: 53%/45% (Biden +8)
- Immigration: 52%/44% (Biden +8)
- Coronavirus: 51%/43% (Biden +8)
- Racial inequality: 53%/40% (Biden +13)
- Bringing the country together: 54%/40% (Biden +14)
RON’S COMMENT: Trump leads on the economy by a clear margin and he edges Biden by a point on law and order. Biden leads on every other issue, including policing and criminal justice. Biden’s best issue is bringing people together, he leads by 14 points
CANDIDATE MENTAL SOUNDNESS
Among voters nationwide
Do you think ____ has the mental soundness to serve effectively as president?
Joe Biden: Yes 49%, No 45%
Donald Trump: Yes 47%, No: 51%
COMMENT: Biden is seen as mentally sound over Trump by a slim 2-point margin…. Worse for Trump, though, more see him as not mentally sound compared to Biden, 51-45…. Biden is seen by 82% of Democrats as sufficiently mentally sound. Among Republicans, Trump is seen as sufficiently mentally sound by 87%…. Since July, Biden’s positive rating on mental soundness has ticked up by 2 points, while negative evaluations increased by 6 points. Trump’s positive rating on mental soundness has increased by 4 points and his negative rating has remained the same.
Among voters nationwide
Do you think ____ has the compassion to serve effectively as president?
Joe Biden: Yes 61%, No 34%
Donald Trump: Yes 44%, No: 54%
COMMENT: Biden is seen as more compassionate than Trump by a wide 17-point margin…. Biden is seen by 90% of Democrats as sufficiently compassionate. Among Republicans, Trump is seen as sufficiently compassionate by 84%.
Warren Harding won the 1920 presidential election and Calvin Coolidge won the 1924 election. Which of the two won the largest popular vote margin in terms of actual votes cast?
(See answer below)
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: USC Dornsife, Sept. 8-14; JTN/RMG Rasmussen, Sept. 10-12
STATE POLLS WERE CONDUCTED WITHIN THE LAST WEEK, UNLESS OTHERIWDE NOTED
TRUST ON ISSUES, MENTAL SOUNDNESS, COMPASSION: Fox News, Sept. 7–10
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Coolidge. He won the popular vote by 7.3 million and Harding won it by 7 million.
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