Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, September 8, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 39% (IBD/TIPP) to 51% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 44%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (+1 from Friday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
Nationwide Popular Vote
(CBS) Biden +10 (52-42)
(USC) Biden +10 (52-42)
Average last three polls: Biden +8.7
RON’S COMMENT: In the CBS poll:
- Trump leads Biden on handling the economy 46-45.
- Biden leads Trump on handling the coronavirus 50-38.
- 48% say Biden would make them feel more safe, while 43% say Trump would.
- 47% would trust Biden more to make sure the U.S. has a safe vaccine; 34% would trust Trump more.
In the States
States Trump carried in 2016:
WISCONSIN (CBS): Biden +6
WISCONSIN (Rasmussen): Biden +8
TEXAS: Trump +2
State Clinton carried in 2016:
NEW MEXICO: Biden +15
RON’S COMMENT: Good news for Biden that he’s winning Wisconsin by clear margins. Based on the four most recent polls, Biden leads Wisconsin by 6.8 points…. In Texas, Trump beats Biden 60-35 among Whites. Biden wins Blacks 87-9 and Hispanics 58-28 in the state.
SENATE: ELECTIONS
Among voters statewide
TEXAS
Sen. John Cornyn (R) over MJ Hegar (D): +11 (39-28-5)
COMMENT: Incumbent Cornyn maintains a clear lead, although this poll shows a high undecided vote (28%) plus 5% for third party candidates…. Cornyn is getting 6% of Democrats, 72% of Republicans and wins independents 32-29…. Cornyn’s rating is 40% favorable/16% neither/32% unfavorable. Democrat Hegar’s rating Is 32% favorable/21% neither/18% unfavorable…. Handicappers rate the race likely or lean Republican.
NEW MEXICO
Ben Ray Lujan (D) over Mark Ronchetti (R): +9 (49-40)
RON’S COMMENT: Lujan’s margin went from 14 points in June to 9 points now, but he’s still the clear favorite. Handicappers rate the race safe or likely Democratic.
BLACK LIVES MATTER
Among voters nationwide
Do you agree or disagree with the ideas expressed by the Black Lives Matter movement?
Agree with BLM ideas 55%
Disagree with BLM ideas: 45%
RON’S COMMENT: 88% of Democrats, 19% of Republicans, 47% of independents, 47% of Whites, 80% of Blacks and 68% of Hispanics agree with the ideas expressed by the Black Lives Matter movement.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Joe Biden is the first Democratic presidential nominee without an Ivy League degree since 1984. Where did Biden get his undergraduate degree? How about his law degree?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: CBS/YouGov, Sept. 2-4
NEW MEXICO: Albuquerque Journal, Aug. 28-Sept. 2
TEXAS: Dallas Morning News/UT Tyler, Aug. 28-Sept. 2
WISCONSIN: CBS, Sept. 2-4; Rasmussen, Sept. 1-2
BLACK LIVES MATTER: CBS/YouGov, Sept. 2-4
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes daily, Monday thru Friday, between now and the Nov. 3 election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
TRIVIA ANSWER
Biden received a BA degree from the Univ. of Delaware and a law degree from Syracuse Univ.
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