Your Daily Polling Update for Wednesday, September 2, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 46%
Up 1 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: These polls are capturing Trump’s convention bounce, showing his job rating rising to 46%…. Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 42% (Politico) to 49% (Emerson, Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would be 44%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 51% today (-2 from yesterday)….See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
Nationwide Popular Vote
(Grinnell/Selzer) Biden +8 (49-41-3)
(USA Today) Biden +7 (50-43)
Average of last four polls: Biden +6.3
RON’S COMMENT: Despite various signs of slippage, Biden maintains a clear national lead in these two new polls…. From the Grinnell/Selzer poll:
- Mind made up: 82% of voters say their mind is made up and 11% say they could be persuaded. The share of voters who could be persuaded has dropped from 32% in March to 11% now. Also: 10% of Biden supporters say they could be persuaded, compared to 11% of Trump supporters.
- Personal ratings: Biden’s rating is net negative, 43% favorable/48% unfavorable––an indication that his image upgrade from the “convention” may have dissipated. Despite a negative-leaning rating, Biden continues to do better than his opponent: Trump’s rating is 42% favorable/52% unfavorable.
- Biden’s rating among men is as bad as Trump’s rating among women: Biden is 38% favorable/55% unfavorable among male voters and Trump is 37% favorable/55% unfavorable among female voters.
- Whites: Biden’s rating among Whites is 41% favorable/53% unfavorable. Trump is 49% favorable/46% unfavorable.
In the States
States Trump carried in 2016
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden +3
NORTH CAROLINA: Trump +2
GEORGIA: Trump +7
RON’S COMMENT:
- Biden continues to lead Pennsylvania, but his margin is too close for comfort. The three previous polls gave him an average margin of 4.7 points in his birth state.
- The average of the four most recent polls from North Carolina has Trump ahead by a slim eight-tenths of a point. This continues to be a tight battleground state that Trump won in 2016 by nearly 4 points.
- While Democrats are still focused on carrying Georgia, this poll shows the state may be getting away from them. Two of the previous three polls had Biden slightly ahead. This poll shows that Trump got through the “convention” period without losing or gaining in the Peach State, while Biden lost 3 points––a disturbing result for Democrats.
- Do these two polls from southern states mean that Trump is bouncing back in the battleground South?Too early to tell, but it’s a trend worth watching.
MAYOR OF SAN DIEGO
Among voters nationwide
Barbara Bry over Todd Gloria: +3 (37-34)
RON’S COMMENT: In this nonpartisan runoff, Bry is winning Democrats by a point, Republicans by 10 points and independents by 2 points. Bry is a city council member and Gloria is a state assemblyman; both consider themselves Democrats. The primary was March 3 and it took weeks for the final vote tally to determine the runoff contenders. Gloria received 42% and Bry received 23% in the primary…. Incumbent San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer is leaving the job after eight years. His job rating is 57% approve/25% disapprove.
VOTER MOOD
Among voters nationwide
For each of the following statements, please tell me if you strongly agree, mostly agree, mostly disagree, or strongly disagree:
“The political establishment in the United States does not have my best interests in mind.”
Agree: 69%
Disagree: 24%
RON’S COMMENT: 62% of Republicans, 75% of Democrats and 78% of independents agree that the establishment does not have their best interests in mind.
“Too many of the benefits provided by the government go to the wrong people.”
Agree: 60%
Disagree: 32%
RON’S COMMENT: 72% of Republicans, 47% of Democrats and 65% of independents agree government benefits go to the wrong people.
“I’m worried that the best days of America are behind us.”
Agree: 39%
Disagree: 56%
RON’S COMMENT: 34% of Republicans, 41% of Democrats and 46% of independents agree that the best days of America are behind us.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIOINAL PRESIDENTIAL: Grennell/Selzer, Aug. 26–30; USA Today/Suffolk, Aug. 28-31
NORTH CAROLINA: East Carolina Univ., Aug. 29-30
GEORGIA: WSB-TV/Landmark, Aug. 29-31
PENNSYLVANIA: Monmouth, Aug. 28-31
MAYOR OF SAN DIEGO: KGTV-TV/Union-Tribune, Aug. 28-31
AMERICA’S MOOD: Grennell/Selzer, Aug. 26–30
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