Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, August 25, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 39% (Politico) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 43%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (-1 from yesterday)…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
HOW IKE LED
By Susan Eisenhower
Published by Thomas Dunne Books
Few people have made decisions as momentous as Dwight Eisenhower—from World War II to the early years of the Cold War. In many of his roles he was the first to take on the responsibility—from the first supreme commander of unified forces in Europe during World War II, the first Supreme Commander of NATO after the war, and the first president of the space age. He brought to his responsibilities, integrity, principled leadership, accountability, and a determination to forge unity of purpose.
How Ike Led shows us not just what this consequential American did, but why—and what we can learn from him today.
Said former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates: “Susan Eisenhower’s How Ike Led distills from her grandfather’s life the enduring qualities of successful leadership…. with lessons highly relevant and desperately needed for current and aspiring leaders, especially those in public life.”
To purchase the book, click here
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
In the States
States Trump carried in 2016:
FLORIDA: Biden +4
NORTH CAROLINA: Biden +3
LOUISIANA: Trump +16
States Clinton carried in 2016:
CALIFORNIA: Biden +29
DELAWARE: Biden +21
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s polling shows Biden leading Florida and North Carolina, two swing states that Trump carried last time, as well as his home state of Delaware. Hillary Clinton carried Delaware by 11 points in 2016…. In 2016, Trump won Louisiana by nearly 20 points. Looks like he’s on his way to winning the state’s 8 electoral votes once again…. In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried California by 30 points.
RIGHT TRACK, WRONG TRACK
Among voters nationwide
% = Right Track/Wrong Track
Reuters: 25%/66%
Economist: 25%/67%
Politico: 26%/74%
RON’S COMMENT: Three recent polls show most voters believe the nation is off on the wrong track by heavy margins. According to internal numbers from the Economist poll, 7% of Biden’s voters and 50% of Trump’s voters say the country is headed in the right direction. And, 90% of Biden’s voters and 39% of Trump’s voters say it’s off on the wrong track.
TRUMP ISSUE APPROVAL
Among voters nationwide
“Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling…”
% = Approve/Disapprove
The economy: 51%/45%
Terrorism: 46%/50%
Gun control: 45%/49%
Taxes and government spending: 45%/50%
Immigration: 45%/52%
Crime and criminal justice: 42%/51%
Education: 41%/51%
Healthcare: 41%/54%
Civil rights and civil liberties: 40%/55%
Climate change: 38%/54%
RON’S COMMENT: Trump is net positive on the economy +6, but net negative on everything else. Except for the economy (51%) and climate change (38%), his approval rating is in the 40s on the other issues. Keep in mind that Trump won 46% of the national popular vote in 2016 and most recently his overall job approval rating is about 43%.
CATHOLIC VOTERS
By Frank Newport, Gallup
The following is an excerpt from Frank Newport’s article, “Religious Identity and the 2020 Presidential Election”:
The second-largest religious group in the U.S. are Catholics, at about 22% of the overall U.S. adult population and about 23% of the vote in the 2016 presidential election…. This group is particularly relevant this year because of Biden’s Catholic faith. (The only other Catholic major-party presidential nominees in U.S. history have been Al Smith in 1928, John F. Kennedy in 1960 and John Kerry in 2004.)
Catholics are too large to consider as a monolithic group, and I think it makes sense to divide them into three major segments––Active White Catholics, about 5% of the population; Lapsed White Catholics (those who still identify with the faith but do not attend services regularly), 8% of the population; and Hispanic Catholics, about 7%.
- Active White Catholics are disproportionately pro-Trump, with Gallup data showing about 62% Trump job approval. This pro-Trump skew most likely reflects the general tendency for highly religious Americans to identify as Republicans, and also may reflect active Catholics’ more anti-abortion attitudes, in line with Trump’s abortion positioning. Biden’s own pro-abortion position may hurt him among this segment.
- Lapsed White Catholics––those who identify as Catholics but who are not active––give Trump job approval ratings slightly above the 50% level, higher than the national average but below Trump ratings among Active White Catholics. This suggests that Biden may have more opportunity to reach out to less active Catholics, particularly because they tend to be less likely to oppose abortion and less likely to say abortion is going to be important in their vote.
- Hispanic Catholics‘ position on Trump is more negative than positive; they give Trump a 61% disapproval rating so far this year, suggesting they could be a key target for Biden, particularly in specific swing states.
See full article on Gallup website here.
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Who was the first U.S. president to have graduated from law school?
(see answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
RIGHT TRACK, WRONG TRACK, TRUMP ISSUE APPROVAL: The Economist/YouGov, Aug. 16-18
LOUISIANA: Trafalgar Group (R), Aug. 13-17
CALIFORNIA: KABC/KGTV/San Diego Union/SurveyUSA, Aug. 12
FLORIDA: PPP (D), Aug. 21-22
NORTH CAROLINA: Morning Consult, Aug. 14-23
DELAWARE: PPP (D), Aug. 21-22
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics publishes daily, Monday thru Friday. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
TRIVIA ANSWER
Rutherford B. Hayes. He graduated from Harvard Law in 1845, making him the first U.S. president to have graduated from law school. Quite a few presidents before Hayes were attorneys, but they did not attend law school; they became lawyers after studying and working under the tutelage of established attorneys.
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