Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, August 14, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 41% (Reuters, Politico) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 44%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (+1 from yesterday), which is 11 points higher than his approval rating….See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
NATIONWIDE
(Fox News) Biden over Trump: +7 (49-42)
(PBS/NPR) Biden over Trump: +11 (53-42)
Average of last seven polls: Biden +7.7
RON’S COMMENT: Two more polls showing Biden clearly ahead. The Fox News survey finds that:
- Trump’s personal rating is 43% favorable/55% unfavorable.
- Biden’s personal rating is 53% favorable/43% unfavorable.
- 47% of voters believe Biden is a strong leader, 44% say so about Trump.
- Poll report on voter interest: “Some 62% are extremely interested in the election––and among just those voters, Biden’s lead expands to 55-41 percent. He’s helped by more of his backers (71%) than Trump’s (61%) being extremely interested.”
- However, the PBS/NPR poll shows that a greater proportion of Trump’s voters (76%) “strongly” support their candidate than do Biden’s voters (64%).
- Poll report on issue preference: Biden is “seen as better to handle race relations (by 19 points), health care (+15), coronavirus (+14 points), relations with China (+11), nominating the next Supreme Court justice (+10), immigration (+7), and policing and criminal justice (+6). There’s one exception: more trust Trump on the economy, by 3 points.”
- Fed reaction to virus: 13% of voters believe the federal government overreacted to the coronavirus, 29% believe it reacted appropriately and 54% believe it didn’t take it seriously.
IN THE STATES
State Trump carried in 2016:
NORTH CAROLINA: Biden +1
RON’S COMMENT: Yesterday, we reported two polls showing Trump with small leads in North Carolina. Today’s Republican-affiliated poll also shows a tight race, but with Biden leading.
KAMALA HARRIS VP PICK
Among voters nationwide
Based on what you know, do you approve or disapprove of Joe Biden’s choice of Kamala Harris as his vice-presidential running mate?
AMONG DEMOCRATS:
Strongly approve: 55%
Somewhat approve: 30%
Somewhat disapprove: 5%
Strongly disapprove: 3%
AMONG INDEPENDENTS:
Strongly approve: 21%
Somewhat approve: 23%
Somewhat disapprove: 10%
Strongly disapprove: 17%
RON’S COMMENT: Democrats overwhelmingly express some degree of approval for the Harris selection. However, independents––who are often swing voters in elections––are not so sure. A total of 44% of them approve of her pick and a large segment, 28%, have no opinion yet…. In addition: 79% of all Blacks say the Harris VP selection makes them feel “proud,” compared to 53% of all Hispanics and 50% of all women…. Despite an initially favorable reaction to Biden’s pick, it’s still an open question whether Harris will help the ticket.
SENATE ELECTIONS
Among voters in each state
MISSISSIPPI
Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) over Mike Espy (D): +5 (47-42-3)
RON’S COMMENT: Democrat Espy’s campaign has released a Garin-Hart-Yang poll that shows Republican incumbent Hyde-Smith ahead by only 5 points. In retaliation, Hyde-Smith’s campaign then released a Tarrance Group poll which shows her leading by a much wider 20 points. The Democratic poll was conducted more recently, July 30-August 9, while the Republican poll was conducted June 22-25…. Did the race change that much in a month and a half? Or is one of these partisan polls just wrong?…. Let’s wait for the next round…. In 2018, Hyde-Smith defeated Espy, a former congressman and Agriculture secretary, by nearly 8 points in a special election runoff…. Handicappers rate the race safe Republican.
NORTH CAROLINA
Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +3 (41-38)
COMMENT: Yesterday, we reported two polls showing Democrat Cunningham leading, on average, by 3.5 points. This Republican-affiliated poll confirms that finding. Handicappers rate the race a tossup.
GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS
Among voters in each state
NORTH CAROLINA
Gov. Roy Cooper (D) over Dan Forest (R): +10 (49-39)
COMMENT: Yesterday, we had a poll showing Cooper ahead by 6 points. Today’s poll shows a bigger margin. Handicappers rate the race lean or likely Democratic.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: Fox News, Aug. 9-12; NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist, Aug. 3-11
HARRIS: Politico/Morning Consult, Aug. 12
NORTH CAROLINA: Civitas/Harper (R), Aug. 6-10
MISSISSIPPI: Garin-Hart-Yang (D), July 30-Aug. 9
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