Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, August 11, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Same as Saturday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would be 42%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 56% today (+1 from Saturday), which is 14 points higher than his approval rating…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
Biden over Trump (GU/Battleground): +13 (53-40)
Biden over Trump (Monmouth): +10 (51-41-3)
Average of last four polls: Biden +8.8
RON’S COMMENT: These two polls show Biden with wide leads, although quite a few political operatives from both parties find the 13-point lead more difficult to believe…. In the Monmouth poll, 58% of voters say it’s a good idea to make it easier to cast ballots by mail this year and 37% say this is a bad idea. 90% of Democrats and 60% of independents say expanding vote-by-mail is a good idea, but only 20% of Republicans (20%) agree…. The Georgetown Univ./Battleground poll finds that:
- Biden’s rating is 45% favorable/50% unfavorable. (In the Monmouth poll, it’s 42/47).
- Trump’s rating is 41% favorable/55% unfavorable. (In the Monmouth poll, it’s 40/54).
- 72% of voters say the country is off on the wrong track and only 22% say it’s on the right track.
- Trump’s rating on the economy is 50% approve/44% disapprove. However, his rating on handling economic recovery is 47% approve/50% disapprove. (The difference makes for interesting message nuance.)
- Trump’s rating on immigration is 42% approve/56% disapprove.
- Trump’s rating on foreign affairs is 41% approve/53% disapprove.
- Trump’s rating on the pandemic is 38% approve/60% disapprove.
- Trump’s rating on healthcare is 38% approve/56% disapprove.
- Trump’s rating on dealing with protests and race relations is 36% approve/61% disapprove.
- Worst news for Trump: Biden leads Trump on “confidence” in dealing with all of these issues––by 5 points on economic recovery, by 18 points on healthcare, by 18 points on the pandemic and by 23 points on protests and race relations.
- Note: Nate Cohn of the NYT points out that the GU/Battleground poll sample appears skewed toward more educated voters. He says 63% of the sample has a college degree. For comparison, 2016 exit polling showed college grads made up 50% of the electorate
IN THE STATES
States Trump carried in 2016:
ARIZONA (OH Pred.): Biden +4
ARIZONA (Trafalgar): Trump +1
PENNSYLVANIA (UofWis): Biden +9
PENNSYLVANIA (CBS): Biden +6
WISCONSIN (UofWis): Biden +6
WISCONSIN (CBS): Biden +6
MICHIGAN: Biden +4
NORTH CAROLINA: Trump +1
GEORGIA: Biden +2
States Clinton carried in 2016:
MINNESOTA: Biden +3
RON’S COMMENT: Biden posts clear leads in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, two critical states. He has a modest lead in Michigan…. Any lead for Biden in Georgia is a good lead for him, even a small one…. Arizona is split, Trump edges Biden in one poll (conducted by a Republican-oriented firm) and Biden leads the other poll. The North Carolina poll that puts Trump ahead by 1 point was taken by Rasmussen, which often shows Trump doing better than other polls…. Biden leads Minnesota, a state that Hillary Clinton won by less than 2 points…. Here are the averages of the last three polls in each state: Arizona Biden +1.7; Pennsylvania Biden +5.7; Wisconsin Biden +6.3; Michigan Biden +6.3; Georgia +0.7; North Carolina Trump +2; and Minnesota Biden +7.
SENATE ELECTIONS
Among voters in each state
ARIZONA
Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +5 (48-43)
RON’S COMMENT: Handicappers rate the contest tilt/lean Democratic.
GEORGIA (Special Election; Open Primary)
Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R): 26%
Doug Collins (R): 17%
Raphael Warnock (D): 17%
Matt Lieberman (D): 13%
Ed Tarver (D): 3%
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Loeffler, who has established a lead in this poll, was appointed by Gov. Brian Kemp (R) to fill the seat of retiring Sen. Johnny Isakson (R). In this survey, Collins and Warnock are battling it out for second place and a runoff berth…. Loeffler leads Collins 33-17 among men and 20-17 among women. Loeffler leads Collins among Republicans 52-34 and 28-9 among independents. Collins beats Loeffler among Democrats by 6-3. Warnock runs first among Democrats with 34%…. The open primary is Nov. 3 and a Jan. 5 runoff, if needed, will be among the top two finishers…. Handicappers rate the race lean or likely Republican.
GEORGIA (Regular Election)
Sen. David Perdue (R) over Jon Ossoff (D): +3 (44-41-4)
COMMENT: Incumbent Perdue wins Whites 65-21, Republicans 85-9 and independents 44-32. Democrat Ossoff wins Blacks 71-22 and Democrats 79-8. Handicappers rate the race either a tossup or tilt/lean Republican.
GEORGIA AND THE VIRUS
Among voters statewide
Thinking about the entire United States …. Do you approve? Or do you disapprove? … Of the way President Donald Trump has responded to the Coronavirus?
Approve: 45%
Disapprove: 47%
Who do you trust more to handle the Coronavirus?
President Trump: 29%
Dr. Anthony Fauci: 46%
Not sure: 25%
RON’S COMMENT: In the Peach State, Trump beats Fauci among Republicans (61-20), but Fauci wins Democrats (73-7) and independents (50-20)…. Trump carried Georgia in 2016 by 5 points.
Now, turning to the state of Georgia … Do you approve? … Or do you disapprove? … Of the way Governor Brian Kemp has responded to the Coronavirus?
Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 46%
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Since 1952, Arizona voted Democratic for president only once. Which election was that?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NATIONAL PRESIDENT: Georgetown Univ. /Battleground/Lake & Tarrance, Aug. 1-8
ARIZONA: Trafalgar (R), Aug. 5-8; OH Predictive Insights, Aug. 3-4
PENNSYLVANIA, WISCONSIN, MICHIGAN: Ubiv. Of Wisconsin, July 26-Aug. 8
PENNSYLVANIA, WISCONSIN: CBS/YouGov, Aug. 4-7
NORTH CAROLINA: Rasmussen, Aug. 7-8
GEORGIA: WXIA/SurveyUSA, Aug. 6-8
MINNESOTA: Emerson, Aug. 8-10
ARIZONA SENATE: OH Predictive Insights, Aug. 3-4
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics will continue to publish Tuesdays and Thursdays, but will add special editions when important new data becomes available. We will return to daily publication closer to the election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
TRIVIA ANSWER
1996. Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole in Arizona.
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