Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, August 4, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Up 1 from Thursday
RON’S COMMENT: In recent days, President Trump’s average job rating has perked up a bit…. Today’s average is based on eight polls, ranging from 40% (Reuters, Politico) to 51% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 44%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (-2 from Thursday), which is 10 points higher than his approval rating…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
NATIONWIDE
Biden over Trump: +4 (50-46)
Average of last four polls: Biden +6.5
RON’S COMMENT: This new Emerson College poll shows a tighter race than other recent polling has indicated…. This survey also finds that 58% of voters plan to vote in person, while 43% expect to vote by mail. Of those who plan to vote in person, Trump leads 65-32. Biden leads with those who intend to vote by mail, 76-20. The depth of this partisan divide is striking.
IN THE STATES
States Trump carried in 2016:
NORTH CAROLINA: Biden +4
OHIO: Biden +4
GEORGIA: Biden +1
MONTANA: Trump +11
RON’S COMMENT: Trump has weakened in all four states since 2016. He won Ohio by 8 points in the last election, Georgia by 5 points, North Carolina by 4 points and Montana by 20 points…. From the North Carolina poll:
- Trump’s handling of the pandemic is clearly hurting him in this key state. 43% think he is doing a good job with the coronavirus and 57% say a bad job. Also, 55% say Biden would do a good job.
- 63% say Trump favors White people and 52% say Biden favors Black people.
- 55% say they feel “nervous” about Trump being president and 54% say they’d be “nervous” about Biden being president.
SENATE ELECTIONS
Among voters in each state
KENTUCKY
Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) over Amy McGrath (D): +17 (53-36)
RON’S COMMENT: The Senate Majority Leader holds a substantial lead over his Democratic challenger. McConnell is winning 84% of Republicans and beats McGrath 45-33 among independents. McGrath polls 79% of Democrats. Handicappers rate the race likely or safe Republican.
MONTANA
Sen. Steve Daines (R) over Steve Bullock (D): +6 (50-44)
RON’S COMMENT: The last three polls put GOP incumbent Daines ahead of Democrat Bullock, the state’s governor, by an average of 3.7 points. This is good news for the GOP because previous polling had Bullock ahead…. Handicappers rate the contest tossup or lean Republican.
NORTH CAROLINA
Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +9 (48-39-3)
COMMENT: Democrat Cunningham had led the last six polls by an average of 9.2 points. But, handicappers continue to rate the race a tossup.
GEORGIA
Sen. David Perdue (R) over Jon Ossoff (D): +2 (45-43)
RON’S COMMENT: The three previous polls showed incumbent Purdue slowly growing his lead, from 3% to 5% to 7%. This one shows a tighter contest. Handicappers rate the race tossup, lean/tilt Republican.
MASSACHUSETTS: DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
Sen. Ed Markey (D) over Joe Kennedy (D): +3 (44-41)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll has raised some eyebrows because previous polling gave challenger Kennedy the edge. From the poll report:
- Voters under 55 years old break 46-34 for incumbent Markey and those older than 55 break for Kennedy 45-42.
- Voters with some or no college favor Kennedy 49-31, while those with at least a college degree back Markey 49-37.
- Markey leads 48-40 among Democrats. But, unaffiliated voters, who can vote in the primary, favor Kennedy 42-38.
VOTING IN PERSON: RISK TO HEALTH?
Among adults nationwide
Key findings from the latest Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Index survey:
- 52% of Americans see in-person voting as a risk to their health and well-being.
- 64% of Democrats, 59% of independents and 29% of Republicans see in-person voting as very or somewhat risky.
- More women than men see it as risky, 57% to 47%.
- 65% of Hispanics, 63% of Blacks and 45% of Whites see it as risky.
RON’S COMMENT: These findings indicate that concerns about the health risks of in-person voting could hurt Biden and Help Trump. Democrats express far greater concern than do Republicans.
SPORTS AND THE PANDEMIC
Among adults nationwide
Key findings from the recent Morning Consult nationwide poll:
- 30% of college football fans believe the season should be played as planned, 33% think it should be postponed and 24% think it should be shut down.
- 32% of NFL fans believe the season should be played as planned, 34% think it should be postponed and 18% think it should be shut down.
- 19% of MLB fans believe the league should continue to play the entire season, 24% think the season should be shut down now and 40% think the season should be shut down if the outbreak gets worse.
A LOOK BACK: 1964 CIVIL RIGHTS BILL
Among adults nationwide
[ASKED IN SEPTEMBER, 1964] As you know, a civil rights law was recently passed by Congress and signed by the president. In general, do you approve or disapprove of this law?
Approve: 59%
Disapprove: 31%
Don’t know: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: Shortly after the landmark 1964 Civil Rights Act was passed, 59% of voters nationwide said they supported the legislation. From the Gallup poll report:
- “A minority of White Southerners, 24%, approved of the legislation, while 66% disapproved and 10% were undecided.
- “In contrast, White Americans living outside the South were nearly an exact mirror image of their Southern counterparts. Sixty-one percent of this group approved of the legislation, but that still left roughly four in 10 who either disapproved (28%) or were undecided (11%).
- “Black Americans, on the other hand, overwhelmingly supported the legislation, with 96% approving of the law.”
TUESDAY TRIVIA
Franklin Roosevelt was elected president four times, in 1932, 1936, 1940 and 1944. In which race did he receive his highest percentage of the popular vote? In which race did he receive his lowest percentage of the popular vote?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL NATIONAL: Emerson, July 29-30
KENTUCKY: Morning Consult, July 24-Aug. 2
GEORGIA, NORTH CAROLINA: CBS/YouGov, July 28-31
OHIO: Ohio Media Collaborative, June 24-July 15
MONTANA: Emerson, July 31-Aug. 2
MASSACHUSETTS: JMC, July 29-30
VOTING IN PERSON: Axios-Ipsos, July 31-Aug. 2
1964 CIVIL RIGHTS BILL: Gallup, September 1964
SPORTS: Morning Consult, July 31-Aug. 3
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics will continue to publish Tuesdays and Thursdays, but will add special editions when important new data becomes available. We will return to daily publication closer to the election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
TRIVIA ANSWER
FDR won his highest percentage of the popular vote in his second race, 1936 (60.8%), and his lowest in his fourth race, 1944 (53.4%).
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