Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, July 23, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Up 1 from Tuesday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 40% (WaPo/ABC, Politico, Reuters) to 49% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would be 44%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 56% today (same as Tuesday), which is 13 points higher than his approval rating…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
NATIONWIDE
(Economist) Biden over Trump: +7 (48-41)
(The Hill) Biden over Trump: +7 (45-38)
(Rasmussen) Biden over Trump: +2 (47-45)
Average of last five polls: Biden +6.8
RON’S COMMENT: The Economist poll has Biden winning men 45-44, women 51-38 and voters aged 30-44 by 54-30. Trump wins voters aged 65 and older by 53-40 and independents 38-37. One out of ten independents say they want to vote for another candidate…. It’s surprising that Democrats aren’t doing more to go after voters 65 and older, which was once a mainstay Democratic constituency…. Largely because of the Rasmussen poll, which often shows Trump doing better than others polls, Biden’s average margin has dipped, but is still clear…. Also, from The Economist poll:
- Of Biden voters, 44% say they’re voting mostly for Biden and 54% are mostly voting against Trump.
- Of Trump voters, 74% say they’re voting mostly for Trump and 23% are mostly voting against Biden.
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden +5
TEXAS: Biden +1
OHIO: Biden +4
FLORIDA: Biden +6
RON’S COMMENT: None of these new state numbers are good for Trump. In 2016, he won Pennsylvania by seven-tenths of a point, Florida by a point, Texas by 9 points and Ohio by 8 points. Looks like he has to fight tooth-and-nail to hold Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, and––surprisingly––maybe even Texas, which is usually a slam dunk for Republican presidential candidates. The two previous polls had Trump ahead in Texas by 1- to 2-point margins.
SENATE ELECTION
Among voters statewide
TEXAS
Sen. John Cornyn (R) over M.J. Hegar (D): +9 (47-38)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent GOP Sen. Cornyn posts a clear post-primary lead over Democrat Hegar, a retired Air Force major. Cornyn won re-election in 2014 by 27 points…. Handicappers rate the race likely or lean Republican.
ELECTION IMPORTANCE
Among voters nationwide
How important is it to you that the presidential candidate you’re supporting wins the election?
Biden Supporters, Extremely Important: 78%
Trump Supporters, Extremely Important: 71%
RON’S COMMENT: Here, most Trump and Biden supporters view the election as extremely important––but with Biden supporters attaching a higher importance by a meaningful 7 points. Of note: 83% of white women with a college degree say it is extremely important their candidate wins.
BALLOT SAFETY
Among voters nationwide
Given the coronavirus, how confident are you that you will be able to cast a ballot safely in the November election?
Extremely: 43%
Very: 23%
Somewhat: 23%
Not at all: 7%
RON’S COMMENT: 75% of Republicans, compared to 63% of Democrats and 49% of independents, say they are extremely or very confident they will be able to cast a ballot safely. 51% of African Americans say so.
RE-OPEN K-12 SCHOOLS
Among adults nationwide
Do you believe that K-12 schools should reopen for in-person learning or online learning this fall?
Re-open completely in-person: 15%
Re-open/mix of online and in-person: 43%
Re-open completely online: 31%
RON’S COMMENT: 2% of Biden’s voters and 39% of Trump’s voters want to re-open K-12 completely in-person. 48% of Biden’s voters and 7% of Trump’s voters want to re-open completely online…. This poll also shows that 49% of parents do not want their children to attend any in-person classes and 34% are willing for their children to attend in-person.
CORONAVIRUS UNDER CONTROL
Among voters nationwide
Do you think coronavirus in the United States is completely under control, mostly under control, somewhat under control or not under control at all?
Completely: 8%
Mostly: 12%
Somewhat: 27%
Not at all: 51%
RON’S COMMENT: Views on the state of the pandemic are deeply partisan: 70% of Democrats say the virus is not at all under control, compared to 28% of Republicans and 57% of independents.
RE-OPEN WITHOUT VACCINE
Among adults nationwide
Do you believe it would be safe for the country to fully reopen, with no restrictions, before a vaccine became available?
Yes: 22%
No: 61%
Not sure: 14%
RON’S COMMENT: 5% of Biden’s voters and 53% of Trump’s voters say it would be safe to fully re-open with no restrictions before a vaccine became available.
WASHINGTON NFL TEAM NAME
Among adults nationwide
A national survey of U.S. adults finds these are the favored names for the Washington NFL team (formerly knowns as the “Redskins”):
Warriors: 47%
Redhawks: 43%
Red Wolves: 38%
Renegades: 34%
Generals: 33%
Red Tails: 32%
Liberty: 28%
Federals: 25%
Americans: 24%
Kings: 24%
Veterans: 24%
RON’S COMMENT: The only two tested names that received more positive than negative feedback were the Washington Warriors and the Washington Redhawks….Hey, what about the Washington Spinners? Just saying.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: The Economist/YouGov, July 19-21; The Hill/HarrisX, July 17-20; Rasmussen July 15-21
TEXAS: Quinnipiac, July 16-20
PENNSYLVANIA, OHIO: Rasmussen, July 15-16
FLORIDA: St. Pete Polls, July 13-14
RE-OPEN K-12 SCHOOLS, KING’S DREAM, RE-OPEN WITHOUT VACCINE: The Economist/YouGov, July 19-21
BALLOT SAFETY, CORONAVIRUS UNDER CONTROL, ELECTION IMPORTANCE: Fox News, July 12-15
WASHINGTON NFL TEAM NAME: Morning Consult, July 14-16
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics will continue to publish Tuesdays and Thursdays, but will add special editions when important new data becomes available. We will return to daily publication closer to the election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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