Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, July 9, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Up 1 from Tuesday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on three polls that were taken between July 5 and 7, ranging from 40% (Reuters) to 44% (Rasmussen). The third poll has it at 42%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 56% today (same as Tuesday), which is 14 points higher than his approval rating…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
NATIONWIDE
(Economist) Biden over Trump: +9 (49-40)
(Hill) Biden over Trump: +4 (43-39)
(Rasmussen) Biden over Trump: +10 (50-40)
Average of last four polls: Biden +7.8
RON’S COMMENT: In the Economist poll, 4% say they’d vote for another candidate, 4% say they’re not sure and 2% say they won’t vote…. In the Hill poll, 5% say they’d vote for another candidate, 8% say they’re not sure and 5% say they won’t vote…. From The Economist poll––
- While Biden handily wins voters under 30 years old (50-28), a substantial 10% of this age cohort say they’d like to vote for a third candidate; that compares to about 3% of the rest of the electorate. Both sides need to look at this 10% very closely.
- Campaign events and rallies: 8% of Biden voters and 65% of Trump voters think the candidates should hold regular, in-person campaign events and rallies; 83% of Biden voters and 19% of Trump voters say they should not.
- Trump’s handling of the coronavirus: 41% of voters approve and 57% disapprove. Side note: 6% of Trump voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus, while 4% of Biden voters approve of Trump’s handling of the issue
WHO CARES?
Among voters nationwide
How much do you think Donald Trump cares about the needs and problems of people like you?
A lot/some: 42%
Not much/doesn’t care: 56%
How much do you think Joe Biden cares about the needs and problems of people like you?
A lot/some: 50%
Not much/doesn’t care: 47%
RON’S COMMENT: Neither candidate cops a majority on this issue, but Biden does a good bit better than Trump in terms of caring for people like you––which is often seen as an important metric.
HONEST AND TRUSTWORTHY
Among voters nationwide
Do you think Donald Trump is honest and trustworthy, or not?
Yes, honest and trustworthy: 35%
Not honest or trustworthy: 57%
Not sure: 9%
Do you think Joe Biden is honest and trustworthy, or not?
Yes, honest and trustworthy: 42%
Not honest or trustworthy: 40%
Not sure: 17%
RON’S COMMENT: Biden does much better than Trump on the question of honesty and trustworthiness, although voters are closely split on the former vice-president. Interestingly, 7% of Trump voters say their candidate is not honest or trustworthy, while 2% of Biden voters say their candidate isn’t.
MANDATORY MASKS
Among voters nationwide
Would you support or oppose a policy that made it mandatory to wear masks in public places?
Support: 71%
Oppose: 26%
RON’S COMMENT: 81% of Biden voters and 25% of Trump voters think masks should be mandatory in public places.
SAFE TO REOPEN
Among voters nationwide
When do you think it will be safe to fully reopen the economy nationally?
It is safe right now: 18%
In two weeks to a month: 12%
In several months: 29%
In about a year or longer: 25%
RON’S COMMENT: Three out of ten voters say it’s safe to fully reopen the economy within the next month, while 54% say not for several months or longer. 2% of Biden voters and 40% of Trump voters say it is safe to reopen right now.
NATIONAL UNITY
Among voters nationwide
Right now, do you think the coronavirus crisis…
Has united the U.S. more: 14%
Has divided the U.S. more: 61%
Has not made any difference: 17%
Not sure: 8%
RON’S COMMENT: 67% of Biden voters and 52% of Trump voters say the coronavirus crisis has divided the nation.
BETTER OFF
Among voters nationwide
Personally: Are you better off now than you were four years ago?
Better off now: 47%
Better off four years ago: 36%
Not sure: 17%
The country: Is the country better off now than it was four years ago?
Better off now: 35%
Better off four years ago: 52%
Not sure: 13%
RON’S COMMENT: Most voters (though under half, 47%) say they’repersonally better off now, while a majority say the country was better off four years ago…. 25% of Biden voters and 77% of Trump voters say they’repersonally better off now.… 6% of Biden voters and 74% of Trump voters say the country is better off now…. Interesting, 18% of Trump voters say the country was better off four years ago. The campaigns need to find that 18%.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: The Economist/YouGov, July 5-7; The Hill-HarrisX, July 3-4; Rasmussen, July 5-7
BETTER OFF, NATIONAL UNITY, SAFE TO REOPEN, MANDATORY MASKS, HONEST AND TRUSTWORTHY, WHO CARES? The Economist/YouGov, July 5-7
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics will continue to publish Tuesdays and Thursdays, but will add special editions when important new data becomes available. We will return to daily publication closer to the election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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