Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, June 30, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 41%
Same as Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on three polls, ranging from 39% (Reuters) to 43% (Rasmussen). The third poll has it at 41%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 57% today (+2 since Friday), which is 16 points higher than his approval rating…. It’s tough for any incumbent to win re-election with a 57% negative job rating…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend…. Looking at the demographic breakdown of Trump’s approval rating in the NPR/PBS/Marist poll:
- 4% of Democrats, 90% of Republicans and 37% of independents approve of the job Trump is doing.
- 41% of independent men and 32% of independent women approve.
- 57% of white noncollege graduates and 35% of white college grads approve.
- 48% of whites, 5% of blacks and 32% of Latinos approve.
- 30% of those under 45 years old and 50% of those 45 and older approve.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
NATIONWIDE
(NPR/PBS) Biden over Trump: +8 (52-44)
(Hill) Biden over Trump: +4 (43-39-5)
Average of last four polls: Biden +7.3
RON’S COMMENT: The Hill/HarrisX poll shows Biden’s lead falling from 10 points in the first week of June to 4 points last week. More than a few Democrats are scratching their heads over that one.
PENNSYLVANIA
Biden over Trump: +5 (46-41)
Average of last four polls: Biden +3.5
RON’S COMMENT: In 2016, Trump carried Pennsylvania by seven-tenths of a point…. Worth noting: Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf’s job approval has fallen from 68% in April to 49% now.
FLORIDA
Biden over Trump: +9 (49-40)
Average of last four polls: Biden +8.3
RON’S COMMENT: If this Fox News poll and other recent polls are anywhere near accurate, Trump is in trouble. On issues, this survey shows Biden leading Trump on immigration (+10), coronavirus (+13) and race relations (+18). Trump leads on the economy (+4).
TEXAS
Biden over Trump: +1 (45-44)
Average of last four polls: Trump +1.3
RON’S COMMENT: It’s hard to believe Biden is doing this well in Texas, but that’s what this Fox News poll shows. Other recent polls also show a competitive race. It goes without saying that losing Texas and its 38 electoral votes would be a nuclear blow to Trump’s re-election hopes…. Trump won Texas by 9 points in 2016. Republicans carried the Lone Star state in 10 of the last 10 presidential elections
GEORGIA
(Fox News) Biden over Trump: +2 (47-45)
(PPP-D) Biden over Trump: +4 (49-45)
Average: Biden +3
RON’S COMMENT: These two polls find Biden leading this normally red state. To hold his lead, Biden will need to get a massive turnout of Democratic constituencies to offset conservative voters––always a tough task in this state. Trump won Georgia by 5 points in 2016.
WISCONSIN
Trump over Biden: +1 (46-45)
Average of last four polls: Biden +5.5
RON’S COMMENT: This new poll has Trump edging Biden in Wisconsin, which is at odds with three previous polls showing Biden leading the state. In 2016, Trump carried Wisconsin by seven-tenths of a point.
NORTH CAROLINA
Biden over Trump: +2 (47-45)
Average of last four polls: Biden +0.8
RON’S COMMENT: North Carolina remains close. Trump won the state in 2016 by nearly 4 points. Though Republicans have won North Carolina in nine of the last ten presidential elections, it’s commonly viewed as a critical swing state based on close races in recent elections.
SENATE ELECTIONS
Among voters in each state
NORTH CAROLINA
Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +2 (39-37-6)
RON’S COMMENT: This contest remains tight with incumbent Tillis in a tough battle. It should be noted that 6% of the electorate is now voting for third-party candidates, who may be siphoning off votes that could flip the outcome either way. Handicappers rate the race a tossup.
GEORGIA
Sen. David Perdue (R) over Jon Ossoff (D): +3 (45-42)
RON’S COMMENT: Though handicappers rate this race likely or lean Republican, incumbent Perdue has a fight on his hands. Two previous polls showed Democrat Ossoff with slight leads. Republicans need to hold this seat if they’re to maintain Senate control. To have a shot, Ossoff will need a heavy turnout among African Americans, liberal whites and college-educated women in urban and suburban areas.
GEORGIA SPECIAL ELECTION, OPEN PRIMARY
Doug Collins (R): 23%
Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R): 21%
Raphael Warnock (D): 20%
Matt Lieberman (D): 11%
Ed Tarver (D): 3%
RON’S COMMENT: Collins, a GOP member of the U.S. House, is rated 34% favorable/35% unfavorable. Loeffler, the appointed incumbent, is 29% favorable/43% unfavorable. Warnock, pastor at the historic Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, is 32% favorable/33% unfavorable. Businessman Lieberman is the son of former Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman (D). Warnock appears to have recently moved up the most…. Handicappers rate the race lean or likely Republican.
TEXAS
Sen. John Cornyn (R) over MJ Hegar (D): +10 (46-36)
Sen. John Cornyn (R) over Royce West (D): +10 (47-37)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Cornyn holds a clear advantage over both possible Democratic nominees. West is a state senator. Hegar is a retired Air Force major and business consultant; she lost a close race for Congress two years ago and is author of the book Shoot Like a Girl…. The Democratic primary runoff is July 14…. While West has the most labor support, Hegar is backed by abortion rights and gun control groups…. Handicappers rate the general election likely Republican, which seems right.
TRUMP FACES A REFERENDUM, NOT AN ELECTION
By Ron Faucheux
Can Trump win an up or down referendum on himself with 46% of the vote?
Trump is an incumbent who has not grown his support base since his election, when he captured 46% of the vote. His base, while impenetrable, is not expanding. Over the past three years, his average job approval rating has mostly hovered between 42% and 46%. Recently, it’s slumped to the lower end or below.
Republican strategists point out that Trump usually does better than polls indicate––and they’re right. Pro-change voters broke for him in the last week of the 2016 election by a big margin. But, remember, the 46% he received on Election Day was him doing better than the polls.
––READ FULL COLUMN here
TUESDAY TRIVIA
What was the greatest number of seats ever won in the U.S. Senate by a political party, and in what election were they won?
(See answer below)
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL NATIONAL: NPR/PBS/Marist, June 22-24; The Hill/HarrisX, June 22-23
PENNSYLVANIA: Susquehanna, June 15-23
WISCONSIN: Trafalgar Group (R), June 23-25
NORTH CAROLINA, TEXAS, GEORGIA, FLORIDA: Fox News, June 20-23
GEORGIA SPECIAL ELECTION: PPP (D), June 25-26
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics will continue to publish Tuesdays and Thursdays, but will add special editions when important new data becomes available. We will return to regular daily publication closer to the election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
TRIVIA ANSWER
75. (Democrats had 75 out of 96 total Senate seats after the 1936 election, the year of FDR’s first re-election.)
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