Your Daily Polling Update for Friday, June 26, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 41%
Same as yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls. The range is 39% (CNBC, Reuters, Politico) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes, it would be 42%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today, which is 14 points higher than his approval.
VP PROSPECTS: FAVORABILITY
Among independents and Democrats nationwide
Do you have a [very] favorable or [a very] unfavorable opinion of the following people?
AMONG INDEPENDENT VOTERS
Among independents with “very favorable” or “very unfavorable” feelings toward each prospect
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Elizabeth Warren: 15%/23%
Stacey Abrams: 13%/16%
Kamala Harris: 11%/23%
Susan Rice: 9%/17%
Keisha Lance Bottoms: 7%/10%
Michelle Lujan Grisham: 7%/10%
Gretchen Whitmer: 6%/15%
Val Demings: 5%/9%
Tammy Baldwin: 4%/10%
AMONG DEMOCRATIC VOTERS
Among independents with “very favorable” or “very unfavorable” feelings toward each prospect
% = Favorable/Unfavorable
Kamala Harris: 31%/5%
Elizabeth Warren: 30%/8%
Stacey Abrams: 21%/6%
Susan Rice: 16%/5%
Gretchen Whitmer: 13%/5%
Keisha Lance Bottoms: 14%/5%
Tammy Baldwin: 13%/4%
Val Demings: 10%/3%
Michelle Lujan Grisham: 5%/4%
RON’S COMMENT: These two lists tell us more about potential Democratic VP candidates than most other polling measurements. That’s because we’re looking only at voters who have strong feelings (“very favorable” and “very unfavorable”) on each contender––the kind of intensity that would most likely motivate voting for or against the Democratic ticket. We also look at the two most strategically relevant groups for Biden’s candidacy––independents (swing voters) and Democrats (turning out the base):
- The top list looks at independent voters––those who are most likely to be swing voters in the general election. As you can see, none of the VP contenders do well among independents and all of them are net negative. Warren and Harris have the highest hard negatives, at 23% each. No candidate exceeds 15% “very favorable.”
- The bottom list looks at Democratic voters. As you can see, all the VP contenders are net positive (no surprise) but only low to modest percentages of Democrats (between 5% and 31%) have “very favorable” views on the candidates.
ASKED OF ALL DEMOCRATS AND INDEPENDENTS:
Woman VP: Do you think Joe Biden should select a woman to be the Democratic Party nominee for Vice-President?
% = Democrats/Independents
Yes: 59%/33%
No: 11%/17%
Not sure: 30%/50%
RON’S COMMENT: Democrats by a wide 59-11 margin think the party’s VP nominee should be a woman, which is what Biden has promised. More independents agree than not, although half aren’t sure.
Black VP: Do you think Joe Biden should select an African-American person to be the Democratic Party nominee for Vice-President?
% = Democrats/Independents
Yes: 53%/24%
No: 8%/21%
Not sure: 38%/55%
RON’S COMMENT: Democrats by a wide 53-8 margin think the party’s VP nominee should be black. Slightly more independents agree than not, but 55% are not sure.
FOR AND AGAINST TRUMP, BIDEN
Among voters nationwide
[ASKED OF TRUMP SUPPORTERS] Would you say you are mostly voting FOR Donald Trump or AGAINST Joe Biden?
Mostly voting for Trump: 78%
Mostly voting against Biden: 20%
[ASKED OF BIDEN SUPPORTERS] Would you say you are mostly voting FOR Joe Biden or AGAINST Donald Trump?
Mostly voting for Biden: 38%
Mostly voting against Trump: 60%
RON’S COMMENT: Most of Trump’s supporters are voting for Trump. Most of Biden’s supporters are voting against Trump. This is called a referendum on the incumbent.
See “Trump Faces a Referendum, Not an Election” by Ron Faucheux CLICK HERE
BOLTON BOOK
Among voters nationwide
From what you have heard about John Bolton’s memoir, how likely do you think it is that the contents of the memoir will be true?
Likely/very likely to be true: 47%
Unlikely/very unlikely to be true: 32%
RON’S COMMENT: 77% of Biden’s supporters and 14% of Trump’s supporters say the contents of the book are likely or very likely to be true.
RE-OPENING WITHOUT VACCINE
Among voters nationwide
Do you believe it would be safe for the country to fully reopen, with no restrictions, before a vaccine became available?
Yes, safe: 27%
Not, not safe: 56%
Not sure: 17%
RON’S COMMENT: 6% of Biden’s voters and 55% of Trump’s voters say it would be safe to fully reopen before a vaccine became available.
PROBLEM OF RACISM
Among voters nationwide
How big a problem is racism in our society today?
A big problem: 48%
Somewhat of a problem: 29%
A small problem: 16%
Not a problem: 6%
RON’S COMMENT: 73% of Biden’s supporters, 19% of Trump’s supporters, 41% of whites, 78% of blacks, 43% of Hispanics, 39% of men and 53% of women say racism is a big problem.
GOP CONVENTION
Among voters in Jacksonville, Florida area
- A poll of registered voters in Duval County, Florida (Jacksonville area) asked whether they approve or disapprove of the decision to hold the Republican National Convention in Jacksonville––58% said they oppose Jacksonville hosting the convention, and 42% said they support it.
- When asked how concerned they were about COVID-19 transmission if a large number of people gathered for the Jacksonville convention, 71% said they are very or somewhat concerned.
- The poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
VP PROSPECTS, BOLTON, RE-OPENING, RACISM, FOR OR AGAINST: The Economist/YouGov, June 21-23
GOP CONVENTION: Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, June 17-22
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics will continue to publish Tuesdays and Thursdays, but will add special editions (such as today) when important new data becomes available. We will return to regular daily publication closer to the election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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