Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, June 25, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 41%
Down 1 from Tuesday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on six polls, ranging from 39% (Politico, CNBC) to 47% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 41%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (-1 from Tuesday), which is 14 points higher than his approval rating…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
NATIONWIDE
(Economist) Biden over Trump: +8 (49-41)
(NYT) Biden over Trump: +14 (50-36)
(CNBC) Biden over Trump: +9 (47-38)
Average of last five polls: Biden +11
RON’S COMMENT: Biden’s nationwide lead continues to grow. The major differences between the Economist poll, which has the smallest margin, and the NYT/Siena poll, which has the widest margin, are: women (Biden’s lead varies from +16 to +22), independents (Biden’s lead varies from +8 to +18) and whites (Trump’s lead varies from +1 to +8). Also, Biden wins men in the NYT’s poll by 3 and Trump wins men in the Economist’s poll by 2.
STATE NOTE: The following seven states were carried by Trump in 2016. Based on latest polling, Biden is now leading in all of them. These states represent a total of 119 electoral votes.
WISCONSIN
(Marquette) Biden over Trump: +8 (49-41)
(NYT) Biden over Trump: +11 (49-38)
RON’S COMMENT: The average of the last three polls from Wisconsin have Biden up by 7.7 points…. In 2016, Trump carried Wisconsin by seven-tenths of a point.
NORTH CAROLINA
(PPP-D) Biden over Trump: +2 (48-46)
(NYT) Biden over Trump: +9 (49-40)
RON’S COMMENT: More good news for Biden, although political operatives from both sides are having a hard time believing the size of the margin in the NYT/Siena numbers.
FLORIDA
Biden over Trump: +6 (47-41)
RON’S COMMENT: The average of the last three polls from Florida have Biden up by 8 points.
MICHIGAN
Biden over Trump: +11 (47-36)
RON’S COMMENT: The average of the last three polls from Michigan have Biden up by 4.7 points.
PENNSYLVANIA
Biden over Trump: +10 (50-40)
RON’S COMMENT: The average of the last three polls from Pennsylvania have Biden up by 6.3 points.
ARIZONA
Biden over Trump: +7 (48-41)
RON’S COMMENT: The average of the last three polls from Arizona have Biden up by 4 points.
OHIO
Biden over Trump: +1 (46-45)
RON’S COMMENT: Biden edges Trump by a point in a state that Trump won by 8 points in 2016. Trump’s job approval rating in Ohio is 44%, slightly better than it is nationwide…. GOP Gov. Mike DeWine’s job approval rating is a spectacular 75%.
SENATE: ELECTIONS
Among voters statewide
NORTH CAROLINA
(PPP-D) Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +4 (44-40)
(NYT) Cal Cunningham (D) over Sen. Thom Tillis (R): +3 (42-39)
RON’S COMMENT: Previously reported polls had Republican Tillis with a slight lead. These two put Democrat Cunningham on top. The average of the last four polls have Cunningham ahead by a point…. Handicappers rate the race a tossup.
ARIZONA
Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally: +9 (47-38)
RON’S COMMENT: Republicans have good reason to worry about losing this seat. The last four polls put Democrat Kelly ahead by an average of 11 points…. Handicappers rate the race tossup or lean Democratic. At this point, we’d suggest “tossup” may be a bit too cautious.
GUBERNATORIAL: ELECTION
Among voters statewide
NORTH CAROLINA
(PPP-D) Gov. Roy Cooper (D) over Dan Forest (R): +9 (50-41)
(NYT) Gov. Roy Cooper (D) over Dan Forest (R): +11 (50-39)
RON’S COMMENT: On Tuesday, we reported a Gravis poll that had this race a tie, which was at variance with other recent polling. These two polls show Cooper with solid leads…. Cooper’s job rating is 52% approve/35% disapprove in the PPP poll…. Handicappers rate the race lean or likely Democratic, which seems about right.
CORONAVIRUS RATINGS
Among voters nationwide
(Economist poll) How would you rate each of the following on their handling of the coronavirus?
% = Excellent or good/just fair or poor
Dr. Anthony Fauci: 58%/30%
Your state’s governor: 57%/36%
Congressional Democrats: 37%/49%
President Donald Trump: 34%/60%
VP Mike Pence: 33%/52%
Congressional Republicans: 31%/55%
RON’S COMMENT: President Trump’s positive rating on the coronavirus has sunk to 34% in this poll with 60% expressing negative sentiment. Fauci and state governors still do best among those on this list.
(NYT/Siena poll) Tell me whether you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling [the] coronavirus pandemic.
Approve: 38%
Disapprove: 58%
RON’S COMMENT: Trump’s approval rating on handling the coronavirus is 8% among Democrats, 86% among Republicans and 33% among independents. By age, he does best among voters over 65––48% approve; that compares to 28% among those under 45.
CORONAVIRUS ISSUES
Among voters nationwide
PRIORITY: Currently, do you believe it’s more important for the government to address the….
The spread of coronavirus: 60%
The economy: 33%
Don’t know: 7%
SOCIAL DISTANCING: Even if neither is exactly correct, which of the following comes closest to your opinion?
- Americans should continue to social distance for as long as is needed to curb the spread of coronavirus even if it means continued damage to the economy: 71%
- Americans should stop social distancing to stimulate the economyeven if it means increasing the spread of coronavirus: 18%
- Don’t know: 11%
FACE MASKS: Based on what you know, would you say that wearing face masks helps prevent the spread of coronavirus?
Helps a lot: 42%
Helps some: 36%
Helps not much: 12%
Helps not at all: 7%
RE-OPENING SCHOOLS K-12: How comfortable would you be re-opening [K-12 schools] for the beginning of the 2020 school year?
Very/somewhat comfortable: 38%
Very/somewhat uncomfortable: 54%
RE-OPENING COLLEGES & UNIVERSITIES: How comfortable would you be re-opening [colleges and universities] for the beginning of the 2020 school year?
Very/somewhat comfortable: 43%
Very/somewhat uncomfortable: 48%
RON’S COMMENT: Most voters are uncomfortable re-opening schools for the 2020 school year, especially K-12 and to a lesser extent colleges and universities.
CANDIDATE HEALTH
Among voters nationwide
Based on what you’ve seen, read, or heard, how would you rate the health of President Donald Trump?
Excellent/good: 40%
Fair/poor: 51%
Based on what you’ve seen, read, or heard, how would you rate the health of Joe Biden?
Excellent/good: 39%
Fair/poor: 47%
RON’S COMMENT: Not a big difference between the candidates based on public perceptions of their health. You think partisanship may be influencing these numbers?
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL NATIONAL: The Economist/YouGov, June 21-23; CNBC, June 19-22; NYT/Siena, June 17-22
OHIO: Quinnnipiac, June 18-22
WISCONSIN: Marquette, June 14-18
NORTH CAROLINA: PPP (D), June 22-23
FLORIDA, MICHIGAN, PENNSYLVANIA, ARIZONA, WISCONSIN, NORTH CAROLINA: NYT/Siena, June 8-16
CORONAVIRUS RATINGS AND ISSUES, CANDIDATE HEALTH: Politico/Morning Consult: June 19-21
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics will continue to publish Tuesdays and Thursdays, but will add special editions when important new data becomes available. We will return to regular daily publication closer to the election. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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