Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, June 18, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 42%
Down 1 from Tuesday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 39% (Reuters) to 46% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 42%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 56% today (same as Tuesday), which is 14 points higher than his approval rating…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
NATIONWIDE
(CNBC) Biden over Trump: +10 (51-41)
(Economist) Biden over Trump: +9 (50-41)
(Reuters) Biden over Trump: +13 (48-35)
Biden’s average lead in last six polls: +9.8 points
RON’S COMMENT: These three latest national polls have Biden leading by substantial margins. Unlike most other surveys, the Reuters poll shows a high 17% of the electorate picking neither Trump nor Biden…. The Economist poll has Trump winning men 46-45, whites 49-44, independents 41-39 and voters over 65 years old 53-43. Biden wins Democrats 94-3, women 55-37, voters 18-29 years old 61-24, blacks 81-8 and Hispanics 60-29.
PENNSYLVANIA
Biden over Trump: +3 (49-46)
RON’S COMMENT: In 2016, Trump carried Pennsylvania by seven-tenths of a point.
MICHIGAN
Biden over Trump: +2 (47-45)
RON’S COMMENT: This CNBC poll shows Biden leading Michigan, a state Trump won in 2016. But, this poll gives Biden a much smaller margin than the big 16-point lead he had in the EPIC-MRA poll we reported Tuesday. Let’s wait for more polling to get a read on which one is the outlier.
FLORIDA
Biden over Trump: +7 (50-43)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll is good news for Biden. In 2016, Trump carried the Sunshine State by a narrow 1.2 points. In the last six presidential elections, Republicans won the state three times and Democrats won it three times…. It should be noted that 50% of Florida voters believe the “state is reopening too quickly,” while 18% say “the right pace” and 32% say it’s reopening “not quickly enough.”
NORTH CAROLINA
Biden over Trump: +2 (47-45)
RON’S COMMENT: Any poll showing Biden winning North Carolina is good news for Democrats. Trump won the state in 2016 by nearly 4 points.
ARIZONA
(CNBC) Biden over Trump: +1 (45-44)
(Daily Kos) Biden over Trump: +4 (49-45)
RON’S COMMENT: Biden leads in both polls. Trump won Arizona in 2016 by nearly 4 points.
WISCONSIN
Biden over Trump: +4 (48-44)
RON’S COMMENT: In 2016, Trump carried Wisconsin by seven-tenths of a point.
SENATE ELECTIONS
Among voters in each state
GEORGIA
Jon Ossoff (D) over Sen. David Perdue (R): +1 (45-44)
RON’S COMMENT: This is the first statewide poll since the primary and it shows GOP incumbent Perdue trailing by a point. If this poll is accurate, it means this race could be more competitive than expected, which is good news for Democrats.… Two recent pre-primary polls also showed a very tight contest…. Handicappers, however, still give Purdue an edge; they rate the race lean or likely Republican.
MICHIGAN
Sen. Gary Peters (D) over John James (R): +6 (36-30)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll shows a closer Senate battle than two other recent polls that had Democrat Peters ahead by 10 and 15 points. Peters has an unusually low profile for a U.S. senator. According to the pollster: “After a six-year term, and with less than five months to go before the general election, Gary Peters has yet to convince voters why he deserves a second term. This despite being on television for several months now. John James has a serious shot picking up a U.S. Senate seat in Michigan for Republicans for the first time in over 25 years.” Handicappers, however, still give Peters the edge; they rate the race lean Democratic.
NEW MEXICO
Ben Ray Lujan (D) over Mark Ronchetti (R): +14 (48-34)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Sen. Tom Udall is not seeking re-election. This race is for his open seat…. Lujan wins Democrats 72-12 and independents 46-29. Ronchetti wins Republicans 73-13…. Lujan is a current member of the U.S. House and an assistant speaker. His late father was speaker of the New Mexico House…. Ronchetti was a local TV broadcaster and weatherman…. Handicappers rate the race likely or safe Democratic.
POLICE
Among voters nationwide
Do you favor or oppose defunding police departments?
Favor defunding: 26%
Oppose defunding: 56%
Not sure: 18%
RON’S COMMENT: 44% of Democrats, 17% of independents, 10% of Republicans, 20% of whites, 25% of Hispanics and 39% of blacks favor defunding police departments.
Do you favor or oppose abolishing the police?
Favor abolishing police: 11%
Oppose abolishing police: 77%
Not sure: 12%
RON’S COMMENT: When the issue is framed “abolishing the police,” only 19% of Democrats, 8% of independents, 5% of Republicans, 8% of whites, 20% of Hispanics and 22% of blacks favor doing so…. From a messaging standpoint, this is an important result. It means that candidates who support “defunding” the police must also be ready to defend “abolishing” the police, a more devastating hit if used.
CORPORATE PANDERING?
Among voters nationwide
Awareness of anti-racism statements: In the wake of the protests against the deaths of African Americans during encounters with police, many companies have responded by making anti-racism statements that include commitments to equality, instituting new diversity initiatives or pledging support for black-owned businesses. Have you seen or heard any of these statements?
Yes, have seen: 67%
No, have not seen: 22%
Not sure 11%
RON’S COMMENT: Two-thirds of voters have seen companies make anti-racism statements. However….
Pandering or genuine? Do you believe these statements are pandering to consumers, or an indication of a genuine commitment to fight racism?
Pandering: 65%
Genuine: 35%
RON’S COMMENT: A solid majority of voters nationwide––including majorities of all races and partisan persuasions––see anti-racism statements by companies as pandering, and not as genuine…. 54% of Democrats, 66% of independents, 70% of Republicans, 66% of whites, 58% of Hispanics and 53% of blacks see these statements as pandering.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: The Economist/YouGov, June 14-16; CNBC/Change Res. (D), June 12-14; Reuters/Ipsos, June 10-16
PENNSYLVANIA, MICHIGAN, FLORIDA, NORTH CAROLINA, ARIZONA, WISCONSIN: CNBC/Change Res. (D), June 12-14
ARIZONA: Daily Kos (D)/Civiqs, June 13-15
CORPORATE PANDERING, POLICE: The Economist/YouGov, June 14-16
GEORGIA SENATE; PPP (D)/End Citizens United, June 12-13
NEW MEXICO SENATE: PPP (D), June 12-13
MICHIGAN SENATE: MRG, June 12-15
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics will publish Tuesdays and Thursdays during the weeks ahead, but will add special editions when important new data becomes available. As soon as political polling gears up again, we will return to regular daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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