Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, June 4, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 43%
Down 1 from Tuesday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 41% (Politico) to 44% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 43%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Tuesday), which is 11 points higher than his approval rating…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
NATIONWIDE
(Emerson) Biden over Trump: +6 (53-47)
(CNBC) Biden over Trump: +7 (48-41)
(Monmouth) Biden over Trump: +11 (52-41)
(Economist) Biden over Trump: +7 (47-40)
Average: Biden +7.8
RON’S COMMENT: This latest round of polls shows Biden’s lead strengthening nationwide. Two weeks ago he had an average advantage of 5.3 points.
WISCONSIN
Biden over Trump: +9 (49-40)
RON’S COMMENT: This Fox News poll is good news for Biden. In 2016, Trump carried Wisconsin by seven-tenths of a point.
ARIZONA
Biden over Trump: +4 (46-42)
RON’S COMMENT: More good news for Biden. Trump won the state in 2016 by nearly 4 points. While Republicans won the state in five of the last six presidential elections, Democrats believe they can turn the tables this year, as these numbers indicate.
OHIO
Biden over Trump: +2 (45-43)
RON’S COMMENT: Trump won Ohio in 2016 by a substantial 8 points. Democrats have won the state in four of the last seven presidential elections. This Fox News poll puts the state in play.
NORTH CAROLINA
Trump over Biden: +3 (47-44)
RON’S COMMENT: Trump won North Carolina in 2016 by nearly 4 points. Though Republicans have won the state in nine of the last ten presidential elections, it’s commonly viewed as a critical swing state based on close races in recent elections.
BATTLEGROUND 6-STATE POLL
Biden over Trump: +1 (47-46)
RON’S COMMENT: This result from CNBC is based on surveying voters in six swing states that Trump carried in 2016 by small margins––Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin. It shows Biden leading these states in total by a point. These CNBC state-by-state results show closer contests that the numbers above from Fox News. Here are the state results from CNBC:
- Biden tops North Carolina (+1), Florida (+3) and Michigan (+2).
- Trump tops Arizona (+1) and Pennsylvania (+4).
- They’re even in Wisconsin.
SENATE ELECTIONS
Among voters in each state
ARIZONA
Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally (R): +13 (50-37)
RON’S COMMENT: One more poll showing Democrat Kelly with a substantial lead over appointed incumbent McSally.
NORTH CAROLINA
Sen. Thom Tillis (R) over Cal Cunningham (D): +2 (38-36)
RON’S COMMENT: This is a real barn burner. Incumbent Tillis holds a small lead over Democratic challenger Cunningham. The previous poll we reported had Tillis ahead by 1 point.
GOVERNOR
Among voters in each state
NORTH CAROLINA
Gov. Roy Cooper (D) over Dan Forest (R): +12 (49-37-2)
RON’S COMMENT: Incumbent Cooper holds a clear re-election lead. Let’s see if it holds up after the skirmish with Trump over moving the Republican convention. If Cooper continues to do well, it would be an indication that Trump’s pulling the convention from North Carolina has hurt the GOP in this critical swing state.
RACE IN AMERICA;
SPECIAL REPORT
Among voters nationwide
The Economist polling:
Do you think race relations in the United States are generally…
Good: 28%
Bad: 72%
RON’S COMMENT: 10% of Democrats, 29% of independents, 48% of Republicans, 31% of whites, 13% of blacks and 24% of Hispanics say race relations in the U.S. are good.
Do you think race relations in your local community are generally…
Good: 68%
Bad: 22%
RON’S COMMENT: 54% of Democrats, 66% of independents, 82% of Republicans, 71% of whites, 56% of blacks and 58% of Hispanics say race relations in their community are good.
How big a problem is racism in our society today?
Big problem: 50%
Somewhat of a problem: 31%
Small problem: 16%
Not a problem: 3%
RON’S COMMENT: 77% of Democrats, 47% of independents, 22% of Republicans, 44% of whites, 77% of blacks and 57% of Hispanics say racism is a big problem.
Since Donald Trump has been president, do you think race relations in the United States have gotten…
Better: 19%
Stayed about same: 27%
Worse: 54%
RON’S COMMENT: 86% of Democrats, 55% of independents, 14% of Republicans, 46% of whites, 81% of blacks and 67% of Hispanics say race relations have gotten worse since Trump has been president.
CBS News polling:
In general, do you think police in most communities treat black people better than white people, treat white people better than black people, or treat both white and black people equally?
Treat black better than white: 4%
Treat white better than black: 57%
Treat equally: 39%
RON’S COMMENT: 5% of white voters and 3% of black voters think police in most communities treat black people better than white people…. 52% of white voters and 78% of black voters think police in most communities treat white people better than black people.
How much impact do you think the coronavirus will ultimately have in America’s:
% = A lot of impact
White communities: 28%
Black communities: 57%
Hispanic communities: 52%
RON’S COMMENT: 27% of whites and 33% of blacks say the coronavirus will ultimately have a big impact on America’s white communities. 55% of whites and 70% of blacks say the coronavirus will ultimately have a big impact on America’s black communities.
As President, do you think Donald Trump favors, works against, or is neutral toward the following groups:
Trump favors whites: 72%
Trump favors blacks: 25%
RON’S COMMENT: 67% of white voters and 86% of black voters say Trump favors whites…. 29% of white voters and 9% of black voters say Trump favors blacks.
If he became President, do you think Joe Biden would favor, work against, or would be neutral toward the following groups:
Biden would favor whites: 39%
Biden would favor blacks: 46%
RON’S COMMENT: 35% of white voters and 52% of black voters say Biden would favor whites…. 46% of white voters and 49% of black voters say Biden would favor blacks.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: Emerson, June 2-3; CNBC, May 29-31; Monmouth, May 28-June 1;
The Economist/YouGov, May 31-June 2
WISCONSIN, ARIZONA, OHIO: Fox News May 30-June 2
NORTH CAROLINA: Civitas/Harper (R), May 26-28
BATTLEGROUND 6-STATE POLL: CNBC/CHANGE RESEARCH (D), May 29-31
RACE IN AMERICA: CBS News/YouGov, May 29-June 1; The Economist/YouGov, May 31-June 2
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics will publish Tuesdays and Thursdays during the weeks ahead, but will add special editions when important new data becomes available. As soon as political polling gears up again, we will return to regular daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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