Your Daily Polling Update for Saturday, May 30, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Up 2 from yesterday
RON’S COMMENT: President Trump bounced back a little since yesterday, when his approval average was 42%…. Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 40% (Politico) to 46% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 44%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 55% today (-1 from yesterday), which is 11 points higher than his approval rating…. See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
FLORIDA
Biden over Trump: +1 (48-47)
RON’S COMMENT: Florida is living up to its reputation as a swing state. This new poll has Biden edging Trump by a point, which is closer than what we have been seeing. The three previous polls gave Biden an average lead of 4.3 points…. In 2016, Trump carried the Sunshine State by a narrow 1.2 points. In the last six presidential elections, Republicans won the state three times and Democrats won it three times.
SENATE ELECTION
Among general election voters
SOUTH CAROLINA
Sen. Lindsay Graham (R) and Jaime Harrison (D): Even (42-42)
RON’S COMMENT: This will certainly raise some eyebrows––this poll has Republican Lindsay Graham in a tie with his Democratic challenger, Jaime Harrison. If these numbers are accurate, it means this has become a much more competitive contest than expected. The survey, which was produced for a Democratic-oriented outfit, shows Harrison with an 18-point lead among independent voters. It also shows Graham winning whites 56-24 and Harrison winning blacks 89-4…. Graham’s popularity rating is a troublesome 35% favorable/56% unfavorable…. The same poll has Trump leading Biden in South Carolina by 10 points––and shows former Gov. Nikki Haley to be the state’s most popular political figure at 56% favorable/33% unfavorable…. Handicappers rate the Senate race likely or safe Republican
LIFTING RESTRICTIONS
Among adults nationwide
Some state governments have begun lifting restrictions and allowing certain places to reopen (including restaurants, retail stores, parks, and houses of worship). Do you think lifting restrictions like this is currently:
The right decision: 42%
The wrong decision: 38%
Not sure: 20%
RON’S COMMENT: Big partisan differences––20% of Democrats, 40% of independents and 72% of Republicans say lifting restrictions is the right decision
RISK ASSESSMENTS: VOTERS VS. PUBLIC HEALTH EXPERTS
Among U.S. voters and public health experts
As the U.S. begins to reopen amid the coronavirus pandemic, please rate the riskiness of each activity to the average person’s health, with 1 meaning there’s no risk at all, 5 meaning there’s a moderate amount of risk, and 10 meaning there’s a great deal of risk.
Scale:
1 = no risk
5 = moderate risk
10 = great risk
Attending a baseball game at a stadium
Public health experts say risk is 8.6
All voters say risk is 7.7
Attending an outdoor barbecue with about 20 people
Public health experts say risk is 7.0
All voters say risk is 6.5
Giving a hug to someone who’s not a member of your household
Public health experts say risk is 6.8
All voters say risk is 6.9
Going to another family’s home for dinner
Public health experts say risk is 6.5
All voters say risk is 5.6
Getting a haircut WITHOUT a mask
Public health experts say risk is 5.9
All voters say risk is 6.7
Playing soccer with people outside your household
Public health experts say risk is 5.3
All voters say risk is 6.2
Using a public bathroom with multiple stalls
Public health experts say risk is 5.2
All voters say risk is 6.7
Getting a haircut WITH a mask
Public health experts say risk is 4.6
All voters say risk is 5.1
Having a housekeeper or handyman visit your home
Public health experts say risk is 4.2
All voters say risk is 5.6
Running outside WITHOUT a mask
Public health experts say risk is 2.9
All voters say risk is 4.3
Running outside WITH a mask
Public health experts say risk is 1.8
All voters say risk is 3.5
RON’S COMMENT: Average U.S. voters believe most of these activities are riskier than do the public health experts surveyed. However, public health experts believe the following are riskier than do average voters: Attending a baseball game at a stadium, attending an outdoor barbecue with about 20 people and going to another family’s home for dinner.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
FLORIDA: St. Pete Polls, May 26-27
SOUTH CAROLINA: Civiqs/Daily Kos (D), May 23-26
LIFTING RESTRICTIONS: The Economist/YouGov, May 23-26
CORONAVIRUS: RISK ASSESSMENTS: Morning Consult, May 22-26
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Publication schedule: Lunchtime Politics will publish Tuesdays and Thursdays during the weeks ahead, but will add special editions when important new data becomes available. As soon as political polling gears up again, we will return to regular daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
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