Your Daily Polling Update for Tuesday, May 26, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Same as Friday
RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 42% (Reuters) to 46% (Economist). Without these extremes it would still be 44%…. President Trump’s disapproval rating averages 54% today (same as Friday), which is 10 points higher than his approval rating….See the trend in Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
Among general election voters
Biden over Trump: +5 (49-44)
RON’S COMMENT: Trump is winning men in the state 54-37, while Biden is winning women 59-35. Trump leads voters over 65 by 11 points and Biden leads voters under 35 by 18 points…. Trump’s job rating is similar to his national score, 45% approve/53% disapprove…. Hillary Clinton beat Trump in Minnesota by only 1.5-points. Because of the closeness of that race, the state is seen as a battleground for 2020, even though Democrats have carried it eleven straight times since 1976.
Biden over Trump: +24 (59-35)
RON’S COMMENT: No surprise here. Trump lost Maryland in 2016 by 26 points.
Among voters nationwide
Dropping charges: Do you approve or disapprove of the Justice Department’s decision to drop charges against former national security adviser Michael Flynn?
Approve dropping charges: 31%
Disapprove dropping charges: 37%
Don’t know: 32%
RON’S COMMENT: 11% of Democrats, 56% of Republicans and 16% of independents approve of dropping the case.
FBI: Do you think the FBI acted appropriately in the investigation of former national security adviser Michael Flynn?
Yes, FBI acted appropriately: 36%
Don’t know: 33%
RON’S COMMENT: 50% of Democrats, 26% of Republicans and 24% of independents say the FBI acted appropriately.
APPROVAL RATINGS, PANDEMIC UNDER CONTROL?
Among voters nationwide
Do you approve or disapprove of the way each of the following have responded to the coronavirus pandemic?
% = Approve/Disapprove
Dr. Anthony Fauci: 74%/19%
Your state government: 70%/27%
The federal government: 51%/45%
Vice President Mike Pence: 47%/44%
President Donald Trump: 43%/55%
RON’S COMMENT: Over the last six weeks in this poll, Trump’s approval rating handling the outbreak is down 8 points, Pence is down 5 points, the federal government is down 5 points, state government is down 7 points and Fauci is down 6 points.
Do you think coronavirus in the United States is completely under control, mostly under control, somewhat under control or not under control at all?
Completely under control: 5%
Mostly under control: 15%
Somewhat under control: 43%
Not under control at all: 35%
RON’S COMMENT: This Fox News poll finds only 20% of voters saying the virus is “mostly” or “completely” under control––that includes 10% of Democrats, 34% of Republicans and 14% of independents. At the same time, 49% of Democrats, 18% of Republicans and 43% of independents say it’s “not under control at all.”
Among adults and voters nationwide
Below is a summary of major findings from several national polls on the coronavirus:
- Airplane Travel: 23% think it would be safe to get on an airplane now; 37% think going to a restaurant would be safe; 48% think it would be safe to go a barber ship or hair salon; and 49% think it’s safe to go a clothing store. (Quinnipiac)
- Another Stimulus: 62% think Congress should pass another stimulus bill to address the economic impact of the coronavirus, including 33% of Republicans, 87% of Democrats, and 60% independents. (Quinnipiac)
- C.D.C.: 56% “approve” of the C.D.C.’s response (Quinnipiac); and 61% rate the CDC’s handling of coronavirus as “excellent” or “good” (Morning Consult).
- China’s Responsibility: 64% believe that China’s handling of the outbreak led to the worldwide pandemic. (Economist). Also: 58% prefer that the U.S. focus on working with China to combat the coronavirus even if it means not holding China accountable, while 30% believe the U.S. should emphasize holding China accountable. (Morning Consult)
- China Laboratory: 47% believe it’s definitely or probably true that a laboratory in China was the origin of the virus, including 73% of Republicans, 32% of Democrats, and 42% of independents. (Economist)
- Constitutional Rights: 23% believe that stay-at-home orders violate constitutional rights, including 47% of Republicans, 22% of independents, and 7% of Democrats. (Economist)
- Depression: 42% are very concerned that the nation’s economy will fall into a depression; that includes 14% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats. (Quinnipiac)
- Job Loss: 44% say they or someone in their household has lost a job or had hours reduced because of the coronavirus. Also, 29% report that loss of income has been a major hardship for them. (Fox News)
- Know Someone: 18% say either they, a family member, or a close friend has tested positively for COVID-19. (Economist). 38% say they “know someone” who has had the coronavirus (Fox News poll).
- Online Learning: 59% believe that online learning has been effective for college students since “many state schools and universities have closed.” (Morning Consult)
- Second Wave: 47% in a Quinnipiac poll think it is very likely there will be a second wave of coronavirus infections, including 20% of Republicans, 64% of Democrats, and 48% of independents. In the Economist survey, 63% think there will be a second wave of coronavirus infections in the U.S. if the authorities ease restrictions.
- Social Distancing: 82% report that the they are engaging in “social distancing.” (CNBC) and 78% say that social distancing measures have been effective at limiting the spread of COVID-19. (Economist)
- Stay at Home: 51% think social distancing, stay-at-home orders and other restrictions were about right, 21% think they want too far and 27% think they did not go far enough. 36% of Republicans, 7% of Democrats and 17% of independents say they went too far. (Fox News)
- Testing: 35% are very confident that they could get a test for the coronavirus if they wanted one. (Quinnipiac)
- Trump’s Responsibility: 34% believe that the Trump administration bears all or most of the responsibility for the recent increase of unemployment, including 57% of Democrats, 8% of Republicans and 31% of independents. (Economist)
- United vs. Divided: 46% believe the coronavirus crisis has divided the country and 20% think it has united it. (Economist)
- Vaccine: 60% in a Fox News poll plan on getting a vaccine shot when available, 23% said they will not get the vaccine and 16% were not sure. When asked by Morning Consult how quickly they would get vaccinated, 28% said they would be one of the first, 32% said sometime in the middle, 13% want to be one of the last and 14% said they would not get vaccinated.
- W.H.O: 45% rate the W.H.O.’s response as “excellent” or “good.” (Morning Consult).
In the 2016 presidential popular vote, four candidates received more than a million votes (Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein). Name the candidate who ran fifth, receiving 729,000 votes?
(See answer below)
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
JOB RATINGS, MICHAEL FLYNN: Fox News, May 17-20
MINNESOTA: Star Tribune/Mason-Dixon, May 18-20
MARYLAND: Gonzales, May 19-23
CORONAVIRUS UPDATE: The Economist/You, May 17-19; Fox News, May 17-20; Quinnipiac, May 14-18; Morning Consult, May 15-18; CNBC/Change Research, May 15-17
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Evan McMullin, an independent. He ran fifth in the popular vote.
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