Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, April 30, 2020
TRUMP JOB APPROVAL: AVERAGE 44%
Down 1 from Tuesday
RON’S COMMENT: Over the past month, President Trump’s overall job rating has fallen from 48% to 44%…. Today’s average is based on five polls, ranging from 41% (Emerson) to 46% (Rasmussen). Without these extremes it would still be 44%…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 52% today (same as Tuesday), which is 8 points higher than his approval rating…. See the trend in President Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Among general election voters
NATIONWIDE
(Economist) Biden over Trump: +6 (47-41)
(Emerson) Biden over Trump: +6 (48-42)
RON’S COMMENT: Biden maintains a consistent lead. The last six polls give him an average advantage of 6.5 points…. In this latest Economist poll, an additional 4% answered “other” and 6% said “not sure.”
NORTH CAROLINA
Biden over Trump: +5 (50-45)
RON’S COMMENT: This is not good news for Trump. He won North Carolina in 2016 by nearly 4 points. Republicans have won the state in nine of the last ten presidential elections.
TRUMP HANDLING OF CORONAVIRUS
Among voters nationwide
[Economist poll]: Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s handling of COVID-19 outbreak?
Approve: 46%
Disapprove: 51%
[News Hour poll]: Do you approve or disapprove of how President Donald Trump is handling the coronavirus pandemic?
Approve: 42%
Disapprove: 57%
[Politico poll]: How would you rate [President Trump on his] handling of the coronavirus?
Excellent/Good: 41%
Just Fair/Poor: 53%
RON’S COMMENT: In all three polls, majorities rate Trump negatively on handling the coronavirus…. In the Economist poll, Trump’s base (he received 46% of the vote in 2016) continues to approve of his handling of coronavirus, but most everybody else disapproves. In the News Hour poll, which also tests approval, his rating is lower at 42%…. The Politico polls uses an excellent-good-just fair-poor scale.
TRUMP AND THE GOVERNORS
Among voters nationwide
Who is doing a better job handling the economy: President Trump or your governor?
President Trump: 39%
Your governor: 55%
Unsure: 7%
RON’S COMMENT: 78% of Democrats, 59% of independents and 15% of Republicans picked their governor over Trump.
RE-OPEN ECONOMY
Among U.S. adults nationwide
When do you think it will be safe to fully re-open the economy nationally?
+ = is the change since last week’s poll
It is safe right now: 10% (+2)
In about two weeks: 5% (-1)
In a month or so: 16% (-3)
In several months: 35% (+1)
In about a year or so or longer: 16% (+1)
RON’S COMMENT: In summary––only 15% of Americans think it would be safe to reopen the economy within the next two weeks and over half (51%) think it will take anywhere from several months to about a year. There have not been any major changes over the past week…. 25% of Republicans, 4% of Democrats and 17% of independents think it would be safe to reopen the economy within the next two weeks…. In another poll (Politico):
- 73% of Americans think social distancing should be continued even if it means continued damage to the U.S. economy.
- 79% say a second wave of coronavirus is “very” or “somewhat” likely.
GOOD IDEA VS. BAD IDEA
Among voters nationwide
Do you think it is a good idea or a bad idea to do each of the following without further testing for the coronavirus:
Have students return to school?
Good idea: 13%
Bad idea: 85%
Have people return to work?
Good idea: 31%
Bad idea: 67%
Allow large groups of people to attend sporting events?
Good idea: 8%
Bad idea: 92%
Open restaurants for people to eat in them?
Good idea: 18%
Bad idea: 81%
RON’S COMMENT: Large majorities of voters oppose doing each of these things without further testing for the coronavirus.
BIDEN VP PICK
Among Democratic primary voters nationwide
[Asked of Democratic primary voters] Of the choices listed below, who do you think should be selected as the Democratic Party nominee for Vice-President if Joe Biden wins the nomination for President?
Elizabeth Warren: 26%
Kamala Harris: 18%
Stacey Abrams: 12%
Amy Klobuchar: 11%
Gretchen Whitmer: 3%
Tammy Baldwin: 2%
Someone else: 11%
Not sure: 17%
RON’S COMMENT: Early Vice Presidential polls favor contenders with national name ID. Keep in mind that VP prospects who ran for president generally do better in polls because they have higher name recognition than those who have not run a national campaign. For example: 31% of Democratic voters don’t know Abrams, 55% don’t know Whitmer and 60% don’t know Baldwin. But, among those who have run for president this year, only 9% don’t know Warren, 14% don’t know Harris and 17% don’t know Klobuchar.
RECESSION WORRY
Among U.S. adults nationwide
If there is an economic recession, how long do you believe it will take before the U.S. economy fully recovers from the effects of COVID-19?
Three months or less: 11%
Six months to a year or so: 55%
Several years or more: 36%
RON’S COMMENT: 47% of Democrats, 54% of independents and 65% of Republicans say six months to a year or so.
KNOW SOMEONE TESTED POSITIVE
Among U.S. adults nationwide
Do you personally know anyone who… [has tested positive for covid-19]?
Yes, me: 1%
Yes, a family member: 5%
Yes, a close friend: 8%
No: 84%
Won’t day: 2%
RON’S COMMENT: There is little difference by party on this result.
MAIN NEWS SOURCE
Among voters nationwide
What is your main source of news?
- Cable news (CNN, Fox News, MSNBC): 27%
- National broadcast (CBS, NBC, ABC, PBS): 21%
- Local TV news: 12%
- National newspapers (WSJ, NYT, WaPo): 8%
- Local newspapers: 2%
- Radio: 5%
- Social media: 10%
- Internet (other than social media): 13%
RON’S COMMENT: Among active voters, Democrats are more likely to watch national broadcast news networks than Republicans (24% vs. 16%) and national newspapers (12% vs. 5%)…. Republicans are more likely to watch cable news (34% vs. 25%) and local TV news (12% vs. 8%)…. More independents get their news from social media than either Democrats or Republicans.
SOURCES
Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, TRUMP AND CORONAVIRUS, BIDEN VP PICK, RE-OPEN ECONOMY, RECESSION WORRY, KNOW SOMEONE TESTED POSITIVE, MAIN NEWS SOURCE: The Economist/YouGov, April 26-28
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: Emerson College, April 26-28
NORTH CAROLINA: WRAL-TV/SurveyUSA, April 23-26
TRUMP AND CORONAVIRUS: Politico/Morning Consult, April 24-26; News Hour/Marist, April 21-26
GOOD IDEA VS. BAD IDEA: News Hour/Marist, April 21-26
NOTE TO SUBSCRIBERS: If you ever stop receiving Lunchtime Politics, check your spam or junk folders. Sometimes, for mysterious reasons, the newsletter may re-route to there. Please know that we will never take you off our subscriber list unless you ask us to do so.
PUBLICATION SCHEDULE: Lunchtime Politics will publish Tuesdays and Thursdays during the weeks ahead, but will add special editions when important new data becomes available. As soon as political polling gears up again, we will return to regular daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron
Follow here to get the latest updates on the Lunchtime Politics.
Be the first to comment