LUNCHTIME POLITICS: North Carolina, Arizona, Kansas Senate – U.S., Governors Handling of Coronavirus – Biden Leads

Your Daily Polling Update for Thursday, April 16, 2020

Up 1 since Tuesday

RON’S COMMENT: Today’s average is based on four polls, ranging from 45% (Economist, Politico, Rasmussen) to 48% (The Hill)…. Trump’s disapproval rating averages 53% today (+1 since Tuesday), which is 27 points higher than his approval rating.
See the trend in President Trump’s job approval average since the beginning of 2020 at approval trend.

Among voters nationwide

Biden over Trump: +5 (48-43)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll’s findings are similar to other recent national surveys. Internal data:

  • Biden wins women by 13 points and voters 18-44 years old by 19 points. 
  • Trump wins men by 4 points and voters over 65 by 14 points.
  • Trump wins independents by 3 points. 
  • Biden is getting 5% of Republicans and Trump is getting 5% of Democrats.
  • Interesting: 57% of Americans think Trump will win, including 26% of Democrats and 97% of Republicans.

Among voters in each state

Trump over Biden: +7 (49-42)
RON’S COMMENT: This poll is good news for Trump, showing him expanding his advantage. He won North Carolina in 2016 by nearly 4 points. Republicans have won the state in nine of the last ten presidential elections. However, the winner in the last three elections has received between 49.4% and 50.4%…. Trump’s rating in North Carolina on the coronavirus is 57% approve/40% disapprove. Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, is 84% approve/11% disapprove.
Biden over Trump: +10 (51-41)
RON’S COMMENT: The Clinton-Kaine ticket won Virginia in 2016 by more than 5 points. Democrats have won the state in the last three presidential elections…. From the poll report:

  • Women prefer Joe Biden by 21 points and men prefer Trump by 4 points.
  • Those with a college degree or more prefer Biden by 24 points compared to those with a high school diploma or less who prefer Trump by 13 points.
  • Regionally, Biden has strong support in Northern Virginia (62% Biden/28% Trump) with a smaller lead in the Northwest, South Central and Tidewater. The West prefers Trump by 9 points.
  • On the coronavirus issue, Trump’s rating in Virginia is 50% approve/48% disapprove and Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam is 76% approve/22% disapprove.

Among voters statewide

Sen. Thom Tillis (R) over Cal Cunningham (D): +4 (38-34-5)
RON’S COMMENT: Tillis is seeking a second term. This is one of the most-watched Senate races in the nation. To overturn the GOP Senate majority, Democrats need to win this one…. Handicappers rate the general election atoss up.
Mark Kelly (D) over Sen. Martha McSally: +9 (51-42)
RON’S COMMENT: This is a marquee Senate battle that Democrats have a real shot at winning. Since last August, Kelly has led in all nine polls released…. Kelly wins independents by a lopsided 67-24 margin…. Incumbent McSally’s rating is 45% favorable/47% unfavorable. Kelly is stronger, at 49% favorable/27% unfavorable…. Handicappers rate the general election toss up or lean Democratic.

Barbara Bollier (D) over Kris Kobach (R): +2 (44-42)

RON’S COMMENT: Will Kobach blow another Kansas election for the Republicans? Two years ago, he lost the governorship to a Democrat (Laura Kelly) in this GOP-leaning state. Now, he’s struggling against a Democrat for the Senate seat, which is now held by Republican Pat Roberts, who is retiring…. Kobach is a former state secretary of state. Democrat Bollier, a state senator, is polling 18% of Democrats and 55% of independents. Losing this seat would be a blow to Republican chances to hold their Senate majority…. Neither party has selected their nominees yet…. Despite this poll, handicappers rate the general election lean or likely Republican.

Among voters nationwide

% = Approve/Disapprove
Andrew Cuomo (D-NY): 54%/29%
Gavin Newsom (D-CA): 32%/21%
Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI): 24%/17%
Ron DeSantis (R-FL): 22%/29%
Mike DeWine (R-OH): 21%/12%

RON’S COMMENT: Among Democratic voters nationwide: Cuomo is 75% approve/10% disapprove, Newsom is 46% approve/8% disapprove and Whitmer is 37% approve/9% disapprove on handling the virus…. Among Republican voters nationwide: DeSantis is 44% approve/13% disapprove and DeWine is 24%/12% on handling the virus.

Among voters nationwide

Doing enough:Do you think the United States is doing enough, too much, or not enough to contain the coronavirus outbreak? 
Doing too much: 7%
Doing enough: 31%
Not doing enough: 52%
Don’t know: 10%
RON’S COMMENT: 81% of Democrats and 22% of Republicans say the federal government is not doing enough.
Compared to other countries: Do you think the U.S. is handling the coronavirus epidemic better than or worse than other countries, or is the U.S. doing about as well as most other countries? 
Worse than most countries: 35%
Better than most countries: 31%
About the same: 25%
RON’S COMMENT: 10% of Democrats and 62% of Republicans say “better than most countries.”
Fed rating: How well do you think the federal government has handled coronavirus so far? 
Excellent/good: 34%
Fair/poor: 60%
RON’S COMMENT: Most voters give the federal government negative marks on handling the virus.
State rating: How well do you think your state government has handled coronavirus so far? 
Excellent/good: 58%
Fair/poor: 39%
RON’S COMMENT: A solid majority give their state government good marks.
A note to our readers:
Lunchtime Politics will publish Tuesdays and Thursdays during the weeks ahead, but will add special editions when important new data becomes available. As soon as political polling gears up again, we will return to regular daily publication. Thanks to all our readers and best of health, Ron

Presidential job rating average based on recent nationwide polls.
NORTH CAROLINA: Civitas/Harper (R): April 5-7
ARIZONA: OH Predictive Insights, April 7-8
KANSAS: PPP (D), April 13-14

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